The Crawfish Boxes - All PostsAstros baseball: we've got uniforms and everything.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/11437/crawfishboxes-fv.gif2024-03-19T08:20:00-05:00http://www.crawfishboxes.com/rss/current/2024-03-19T08:20:00-05:002024-03-19T08:20:00-05:00Astros Starting Pitcher Depth
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<img alt="Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ryoFzp77J7LeeeyBM_hG4KkpqPw=/0x1:5303x3536/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73217534/1488198731.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Houston Astros Starting Pitcher J.P. France Talks with Pitching Coach Josh Miller during his 2023 debut. | Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Do the Astros have enough starting pitching?</p> <p id="HBFbSf">Amid injuries in the rotation and rumors that the Astros were pursuing free agent pitcher Blake Snell, the status of the Astros’ starting pitcher depth is a popular conversation topic. Reportedly, Snell agreed to sign a 2 year contract with the Giants last night. At this point, we don’t know if the Astros are pursuing any of the remaining free agent starting pitchers, (such as Jordan Montgomery or Michael Lorenzen). But we are still left with the question of Astros rotation depth. </p>
<p id="7VlVyM">It’s not uncommon for baseball analysts to mention the Astros’ rotation depth as a weakness. Last month, on the MLB Network former GM Dan O’Dowd said the only question he had about the Astros ability to repeat as division champion is the team’s starting pitching depth. This is a concern repeated by other analysts. So, let’s evaluate the rotation depth.</p>
<p id="fUTLHi">Last year, before the 2023 season began, <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2022/12/7/23496310/will-the-astros-need-to-sign-another-pitcher">my evaluation</a> indicated that the Astros needed to bolster the rotation depth for that season. But the depth issue was quite different in 2023. Without Justin Verlander and Jake Odorizzi, the Astros needed to fill a big hole in rotation “innings pitched.” Verlander and Odorizzi had combined for 235 innings in 2022, and both pitchers were gone. It turned out that the Astros did need more depth, and they addressed this problem at the trade deadline, bringing Verlander back to the team. Arguably, the Verlander trade was critical to the Astros winning the division and probably even making the playioffs. The Astros pitching depth, such as it was, had run out of steam by the second half of the season.</p>
<p id="0U9YX4">This season the Astros don’t have the same kind of innings gap. Sure, Lance McCullers, Jr. and Luis Garcia continue to be unavailable, but that is the same as last year.</p>
<p id="BiiZbj">The Astros rotation pitched 895 innings in 2023. What happens if the Astros’ starters incur regression in their pitched innings in 2024? To examine this question, I used the projections at Baseball-Reference, because they are based solely on past performance and regression to the mean. I chose B-R’s projection because it is a simple model without bells and whistles or human judgement. It provides a straightforward application of statistical regression.</p>
<p id="rmfRHv">Since Verlander will start the season on the injured list, I will set him aside for the moment and focus on Valdez, Javier, Brown, and France. Below is a comparison of the 2023 innings pitched, the B-R projected innings pitched, and the percent regression in innings pitched.</p>
<p id="A1lHkb"> <strong>2024 B-R Projected IP / 2023 Actual IP / Percent Regression</strong></p>
<p id="SmazAr"><strong>Valdez 179 IP / 198 IP / -10%</strong></p>
<p id="ezNh9n"><strong>Javier 149 IP / 162 IP / -8%</strong></p>
<p id="aXKyrf"><strong>Brown 134 IP / 153 IP / -12%</strong></p>
<p id="6Ltsaj"><strong>France 126 IP / 133 IP / -5%</strong></p>
<p id="KQcb82"><strong>Sub-Total 588 IP / 646 IP / -10%</strong></p>
<p id="afUXdr"><strong>Innings Gap 58 IP</strong></p>
<p id="sgblnt">Potentially, the four starters, excluding Verlander, might leave a 58 innings gap to be covered if they pitched to their regressed number of innings in 2024.</p>
<p id="j4odng">What about Verlander? The fact that he will start the season on the IL, as well as his age, naturally leads to some questions about his ability to pitch a normal innings total. But even with regression (162 IP with the Mets and Astros, and a B-R regressed projection of 156 IP), Verlander makes up for the 58 innings gap. This is because he pitched 68 innings for the Astros in 2023, but his full season regressed total is 156 IP. By pitching the full season for the Astros, Verlander (at least in theory) provides 88 innings more than his 2023 Astros’ innings. The mid-season re-acquisition of Verlander in 2023 turns out to be essential for maintaining an acceptable rotation depth in 2024.</p>
<p id="DlTw59">At this point, Verlander’s placement on the IL at season start appears to be temporary—a conservatism to ease him into the rotation gradually. If we assume that’s true, and Verlander pitches to the B-R projection, the Astros would need 150 IP from the “pitching depth” to achieve the 895 IP by the rotation in 2023.</p>
<p id="jQKLzG">Now to some real question marks. How many innings will Jose Urquidy pitch in 2024? Currently he is sidelined with inflammation from a strained forearm, and it is unknown if he can pitch when the season starts. Despite injuries, he pitched 46 innings last year. Worst case, he pitches zero innings in 2024 and best case, he eventually pitches around 100 innings (B-R’s projection for 2024).</p>
<p id="RF7uYo">And what about Lance McCullers, Jr. and Luis Garcia, both recovering from arm surgery? Currently they might return by August or September. But, conservatively, I would not plan on any particular innings total for them. A lot can happen between now and August. We really don’t know if we can count on either to provide reinforcements late in the season. But if they do return this season, perhaps they would provide 50 or 60 IP, which would certainly narrow that 150 inning gap which must be covered by “depth.”</p>
<p id="ZufHIa">What is the remaining starting pitcher depth? Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak are the first line depth replacements. Last year, Bielak started for 70 innings and Blanco started for 38 innings. No disrespect to Bielak, but if he pitches 70 innings again, that likely isn’t a good outcome. Could Bielak and Blanco combine for 100 innings in 2024? That’s probably doable. But depending on them for too many innings stretches the pitching depth to the limits of effectiveness. At some point this season, the untested minor league starting pitchers (Arrighetti, Gordon, and Kouba) could form a second line of depth. </p>
<p id="zMSnvi">It becomes apparent that the ultimate contribution of Urquidy is an important part of the puzzle. In the worst case, Bielak, Blanco, and the minor leaguers have to pitch around 150 or more innings. France experienced arm soreness earlier this spring. If he joined Urquidy on the sideline, Bielak and Blanco would have to cover the No. 5 rotation spot for an even longer time period.</p>
<p id="yKtnPi">And, as we noted about Verlander, it’s possible that arm soreness could recur during the season and reduce his potential innings contribution.</p>
<p id="ULT2RF">It’s apparent why the Astros would be interested in more starting pitching. On the surface, the Astros appear to have starting pitching depth which might be adequate. But if everything doesn’t go according to plan, the effectiveness of the rotation depth may be questionable.</p>
<p id="M8Tomd"><strong>A NOTE ON HUNTER BROWN</strong></p>
<p id="AbgJpf">Previously, I <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/12/27/24015391/looking-forward-to-hunter-browns-2024">contended that Hunter Brown’s improvement</a> is crucial to the success of the Astros’ rotation. Last week,<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2024-booms-and-busts-pitchers/"> Fangraph’s article</a> “Symborski’s 2024 Booms and Busts: Pitchers” discussed similar observations about Brown’s potential. </p>
<p id="ldUWHV">Dan Symborski counted Hunter Brown among the probable “Breakout” candidates. He noted that Brown’s 2023 season had both good and bad, but was “a bit of a disappointment.” He makes the argument that Brown could be due for a breakout:</p>
<p id="9u7iGx"> <em>That said, there are signs that he was a bit unlucky: Opponents had a high BABIP against him, and he allowed home runs at a much higher rate (1.50 HR/9) than he had at any point as a professional. Additionally, considering he threw nearly 30 more innings (155.2) than in any previous season (126.1), he may have just been gassed at the end of the year. Through his first 23 games (22 starts), which spanned 125.1 innings, he had a 4.16 ERA and 3.92 FIP. Over his final eight games (seven starts), he posted an abysmal 8.90 ERA and 6.26 FIP, with more than a third of the home runs he gave up (nine of 26) coming during that final stretch.</em></p>
<p id="c4grcc">Let’s hope that Brown will be one of the breakouts in 2024. This would go a long way in solidifying the Astros’ rotation.</p>
<p id="aukHEh">Spring training stats may not mean a lot. But Brown has pitched well in the spring so far, with a 2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 12.2 innings.</p>
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/19/24105482/astros-starting-pitcher-depthClack2024-03-19T05:17:35-05:002024-03-19T05:17:35-05:00Astros Crawfish Boil: March 19, 2024
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<img alt="MLB: MAR 17 Spring Training - Astros at Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kqrnSPtRtmF2SZR475jqFglcMYY=/0x0:5760x3840/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73217209/2084810088.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brice Matthews | Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Snell watch is over.</p> <p id="gW93df"><a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/"><strong>Houston Astros</strong></a><strong> News</strong></p>
<p id="zsALyY"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-urquidy-likely-to-start-2024-on-injured-list">With Urquidy sidelined, here’s the Astros’ potential starting rotation</a></p>
<p id="3axRtD"><a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/houston-astros-grae-kessinger-injury-19222020.php">Houston Astros infielder Grae Kessinger strains hamstring</a> (Houston Chronicle)</p>
<p id="HEQoYk"><a href="https://houston.sportsmap.com/houston-astros-blake-snell-jose-urquidy-injury-mlb-jim-crane">How latest reports abruptly shift Houston Astros rotation x-factors</a> (SportsMap Houston)</p>
<p id="IZnHI2"><a href="https://www.khou.com/article/sports/mlb/astros/houston-astros-budweiser-cans/285-0479d83d-152c-43ec-807e-7893ba84f487">Budweiser has limited edition Houston Astros cans, 15 other teams</a> (KHOU)</p>
<p id="mcm5EB"><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5351714%2F2024%2F03%2F18%2Fhunter-brown-astros-starting-rotation%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.crawfishboxes.com%2F2024%2F3%2F19%2F24105541%2Fastros-crawfish-boil-march-19-2024" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">As Astros’ rotation depth dwindles, Hunter Brown has ‘to take a step forward’</a> (The Athletic)</p>
<p id="dSfGRL"><a href="https://chipalatta.com/2024/03/18/astros-2024-revisiting-the-question/">Astros 2024: Revisiting “THE QUESTION”</a></p>
<p id="iQMkyT"><strong>AL West News</strong></p>
<p id="09dwhM">A’s: <a href="https://www.ktnv.com/news/report-shows-how-as-plan-to-give-back-to-las-vegas-community">Report shows how A’s plan to give back to Las Vegas community</a> (KTNV)</p>
<p id="zhvp62">M’s: <a href="https://www.aol.com/news/seattle-mariners-name-luis-castillo-001654530.html">Seattle Mariners name Luis Castillo as 2024 Opening Day starter</a> (AOL)</p>
<p id="YvMEZq">Halos: <a href="https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/the_los_angeles_angels_journey_toward_a_brighter_future/s1_17079_40129705">The Los Angeles Angels’ Journey Toward a Brighter Future</a> (Yardbarker)</p>
<p id="OjYjga">Blarts: <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2024/03/18/a-seasoned-mlb-veterans-take-on-the-texas-rangers-wyatt-langford-evan-carter-phenomenon/">An MLB veteran’s take on the Rangers’ Langford-Carter phenomenon</a> (Dallas News)</p>
<p id="xaAv9N"><strong>MLB News</strong></p>
<h1 id="zPUXFg"><strong>Latest News</strong></h1>
<p id="yxAE5k"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions">With Snell reportedly off the market, where will Montgomery end up?</a></p>
<p id="vYgXrb"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-giants-free-agent-contract">Snell agrees to 2-year, $62M deal with Giants</a></p>
<p id="gxBeBP"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-preseason-mlb-power-rankings">Power Rankings: Who’s on top entering the season?</a>tl;dr — Houston’s number six, behind Atlanta, the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, the Orioles the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, and Texass. </p>
<p id="DvfwRo"><a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-catcher">2024 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher</a> (FG) Astros are....14th???</p>
<p id="FGREzy"><strong>Houston Astros Birthdays</strong></p>
<p id="8svVja">IF Matt Downs (40)</p>
<p id="8w7BUd">IF José Castillo (1981-2018)</p>
<p id="u8RKcS">IF/CF Chuck Jackson (61)</p>
<p id="J6pchl">IF Kobe Kato (25)</p>
<p id="MQi0m1">RHP Aaron Brown (25)</p>
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/19/24105541/astros-crawfish-boil-march-19-2024Kevin Kraczkowski2024-03-18T16:16:45-05:002024-03-18T16:16:45-05:00Astros Spring Training Week in Review.
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y33_gaIax3OxTaMrPkfzxOhD2UM=/675x168:2989x1711/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73216441/usa_today_22618114.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Houston Astros outfielder Joey Loperfido (83) hits a single against the St. Louis Cardinals | Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>How are things shaping up?</p> <p id="6qVCKN">The Astros’ record is 10-13 going into the second of Monday’s Spring Training games. They were 2-6 for the week, but the situation isn’t as bleak as that sounds.</p>
<p id="b8Kv0s">First, the really bad news. Yet another pitcher is down. Jose Urquidy is out indefinitely with a forearm strain. That means, among potential Astros starters, Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, and now Urquidy will not be pitching when the season starts. This leaves a likely opening-day rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and a not fully stretched J.P. France. </p>
<p id="LKN8hL">Since pitching is the main concern, let’s start today's review with the status of pitchers and their progress.</p>
<h3 id="ZLMNhK"><strong>Pitching</strong></h3>
<p id="12XNlb">There is some reason to be concerned about Framber Valdez. In eight total innings this week, he allowed five earned runs and ten hits. His ERA so far is 7.71 for the Spring.</p>
<p id="2n9AkZ">There was mostly good news after the Urquidy and Valdez stories. J.P. France made his Spring debut, and although he gave up a home run in 2.2 IP, he struck out four and walked only one.</p>
<p id="IPICpx">Hunter Brown made two appearances, pitching 8.2 innings with three earned runs and eight hits. His Spring ERA is 2.84. Cristian Javier and Ronel Blanco are looking good this Spring, both of whom made scoreless appearances. Javier’s Spring ERA is 1.80, and Blanco’s is a perfect 0.00 with a WHIP of 0.69. Keep in mind that Blanco has been a great-looking ST pitcher the last few seasons but has never been so dominant in the regular season.</p>
<p id="JQBpLo">There are two bright spots in the bullpen, with a number of pitchers competing for the last spot. Parker Mushinski and Seth Martinez both retain scoreless inning streaks this Spring, and lefty Bennett Sousa, after a slow start, had 2.1 scoreless innings this week, bringing his Spring ERA down to 4.26.</p>
<p id="yObwUB">On the other hand, Rafael Montero continues to look like a trainwreck, with a 16.88 ERA, a 3.38 WHIP, and a .385 BAA. Possible fifth starter and ostensible long-reliever Brandon Beilak continues to throw batting practice with a 7.36 ERA so far. </p>
<p id="CLFAa5">And should we be concerned about Bryan Abreu? He has a 9.82 ERA this Spring with a 2.73 WHIP and .286 BAA. It’s only 3.2 IP, and in those innings, he has allowed six walks. Control has always been Abreu’s biggest issue, so hopefully, he will find the range before the season begins.</p>
<h3 id="QjK3tm"><strong>Hitting</strong></h3>
<p id="Hrgpdh">The bats we care about the most seem to be rounding into form for Opening Day. Below are their hitting stats for the week and overall Spring BA and OPS (prior to Monday). Of particular note is the hot hitting of usually slow-starting Alex Bregman, Catcher Yainer Diaz's emergence from a deep slump, and prospect Joey Loperfido's continued other-worldly performance. Oh yeah, Mauricio Dubon stays hot. And former George Springer heir-apparent, Pedro Leon, is having a sneaky good Spring, too.</p>
<p id="z5OAFX">Jose Altuve..............4-12....233.....648</p>
<p id="HjrWG5">Alex Bregman..........7-14....324.....773</p>
<p id="E8pvHu">Kyle Tucker..............3-12....333....1.012</p>
<p id="mcVOlH">Chas McCormick....5-9.....400.....924</p>
<p id="Mqg4QX">Jake Meyer..............4-10....310.....1.065</p>
<p id="jlFfXm">Mauricio Dubon......4-12....484....1.257</p>
<p id="8iOK7Z">Yordan Alvarez.......4-13....345.....924</p>
<p id="rsdUQY">Jeremy Pena...........2-9......240.....656</p>
<p id="5TrQAs">Yainer Diaz.............4-11......206.....594</p>
<p id="htDpy8">Joey Loperfido.......6-11.....423......1.175</p>
<p id="soCiRG">Jon Singleton.........1-12.....207......467</p>
<p id="jUsC3N">Pedro Leon.............4-7......333......868</p>
<p id="hTcVVK">Jose Abreu.............2-3......233......1.068</p>
<p id="Q1MB15">One of the following three players has a chance to be the 26th man as the second utility infielder behind Mauricio Dubon: Shay Whitcomb, Grae Kessinger, or David Hensley. Their Spring averages are .231, .194, and .176, respectively.</p>
<p id="4W2fKR">Overall, the hitting seems to be rounding into shape for the season. However, pitching is a big concern, with injuries and uncertain performances from key pieces like Framber Valdez, Brandon Bielak, Rafael Montero, and Bryan Abreu. But there are still ten days to right the ship (including trades/signings).</p>
<p id="uQiDTi">Go Stros.</p>
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https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/18/24105168/astros-spring-training-week-in-reviewWilliam Metzger(bilbos)2024-03-18T14:54:37-05:002024-03-18T14:54:37-05:00A Time To Lament?
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<img alt="Championship Series - Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers - Game Four" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1NPLkbIZI9Zur_e8vPOQUl9pYE0=/0x0:7601x5067/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73216186/1734340452.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Pitching depth was tested last season and it appears 2024 will feature more of the same, at least to start the new campaign. </p> <p id="7FWgea">Remember when Dusty Baker lamented the lack of starting depth last season? Yeah, I think he would lament this year’s development, too. I certainly do. With José Urquidy now out for an indefinite amount of time, the Astros are already pushing against the precipice of last season’s conundrum: A lack of depth in starting pitchers. </p>
<p id="eXRcrw">To be clear, it is possible to envision a situation when Dana Brown and Joe Espada face — believe it or not — a logjam in the rotation by August if good health abounds. Both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcìa could be back by that point. Justin Verlander will open the season on the IL, but it doesn’t seem like his upcoming stint ought to be a long one. Urquidy’s long-term status remains unclear. That is the hope, but hope also isn’t a plan. </p>
<p id="Ph8SLJ">Ultimately, Brown has little in the way of immediate pitching help on the 40-man roster, especially if another injury or two occurs. Top prospect Spencer Arrighetti is certainly an option at some point this upcoming season, but the front office would have to clear a roster spot on the 40-man to promote the promising right-hander. With Houston’s pursuit of Blake Snell <a href="https://x.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1769508657949991258?s=20">possibly falling short</a>, it could behoove Brown to explore other available options on the open market. After all, Jordan Montgomery remains without a team and he doesn’t have a draft pick penalty attached, unlike Snell. Michael Lorenzen, for example, is another available pitcher with experience as both a starter and reliever. His price tag would certainly be less of a strain than, say, Snell or Montogomery. Of course, Lorenzen’s ceiling is lower than his fellow free agents. </p>
<p id="qMi3wb">It is already confirmed Framber Valdez will start on Opening Day followed by Cristian Javier for the season’s second game. The arrangement beyond Javier remains murky, though. FanGraphs currently has Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and J.P. France rounding out the rotation to start the season. Brandon Bielak, who is out of minor league options, will likely make the team as a reliever, but he is also available to start. This projection, at least to me, appears the most plausible. Essentially a redux of last summer’s rotation up until the reacquisition of Verlander from the Mets during the trade deadline. </p>
<p id="Ync5cF">Can the Astros still compete in the AL West with the starting rotation as is? Likely for a few weeks, especially if Verlander returns with no issues. It also largely hinges on whether Valdez and Javier can put their second-half struggles from last season firmly behind them. While some measure of hope is involved with roster construction, another starter would go a long way to at least alleviate this predominant concern. This team needs at least one more arm to absorb innings because another injury is only a matter of time, whether it is Snell, Montgomery, Lorenzen, or somebody else. </p>
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/18/24105068/astros-a-time-to-lamentCody Poage2024-03-18T11:36:55-05:002024-03-18T11:36:55-05:00Spring Training Game(s) Thread. March 18, 2024. 12:05 CT, 5:05 CT
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<img alt="Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mjIBC3YGqBzNeiKZ4wvSClgscf0=/0x0:5244x3496/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73215494/2084793507.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Scott Audette/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Two games today, Astros @ Miami at 12:05 and Nationals @ Astros at 5:05 (Televised).</p> <p id="aQtHwl">Here is the lineup for game one:</p>
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<p id="mDCdeb">Game 2 Astros lineup. (tentative)</p>
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https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/18/24103956/spring-training-game-s-thread-march-18-2024-12-05-ct-5-05-ctWilliam Metzger(bilbos)2024-03-18T05:52:08-05:002024-03-18T05:52:08-05:00Astros Crawfish Boil: March 18, 2024
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<img alt="MLB: MAR 17 Spring Training - Astros at Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/35Fxs-ZpL6izo06Pu7k36fMmKxE=/0x0:5760x3840/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73214637/2084810309.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Spencer Arrighetti | Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Spencer Arrighetti looked pretty good on Sunday.</p> <h1 id="NoeHiU"></h1>
<p id="SNOg2D"><a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/"><strong>Houston Astros</strong></a><strong> News</strong></p>
<p id="I5J8xG"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-injuries-and-roster-moves">Injuries & Moves: Urquidy (elbow) undergoes MRI in Houston</a></p>
<p id="cdtGfY"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/joey-loperfido-astros-camp-2024">This Astros prospect a wiz in kitchen ... and on diamond</a></p>
<p id="i1Cu3a"><a href="https://chipalatta.com/2024/03/15/astros-2024-this-aint-easy/">Astros 2024: This ain’t easy</a> (chipalatta)</p>
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<p id="jNs4TL"><a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10113413-mlb-rumors-astros-balked-at-blake-snells-2-year-60m-contract-asking-price">MLB Rumors: Astros ‘Balked’ at Blake Snell’s 2-Year, $60M Contract Asking Price</a> (BR)</p>
<p id="xxq0cF"><a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/framber-valdez-houston-astros-200-innings-goal-19168374.php">Astros’ Framber Valdez has 200-inning goal this season</a> (Houston Chronicle)</p>
<p id="09fWHp"><strong>AL West News</strong></p>
<p id="miIkeR">A’s — <a href="https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/oakland-athletics/j-d-davis-punch-to-gut-giants-release/1714094/">Davis calls Giants release ‘punch to the gut,’ happy for role with A’s</a> (NBC)</p>
<p id="IrL5yn">Blarts — <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danschlossberg/2024/03/17/al-outlook-texas-rangers-may-have-tough-time-defending-first-crown/">AL Outlook: Texas Rangers May Have Tough Time Defending First Crown</a> (Forbes)</p>
<p id="smCjO0">Halos — <a href="https://www.ocregister.com/2024/03/16/ron-washington-has-the-angels-tearing-up-the-basepaths/">Ron Washington has Angels tearing up the basepaths</a> (OC Register)</p>
<p id="NkTSEU">M’s — <a href="https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1773868/seattle-mariners-checking-in-pitchers-spring-training/">Seattle Mariners Notebook: Checking in on the pitchers</a> (Seattle Sports)</p>
<p id="PsVA0x"><strong>MLB News</strong></p>
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<p id="WqKeVT"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-rumors">Could former manager lure Snell to this NL club?</a></p>
<p id="aUa3T1"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/joey-votto-homers-in-first-spring-training-at-bat-with-blue-jays">Votto homers one pitch into his Blue Jays career</a></p>
<p id="cPfJi3"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-stowers-hits-three-home-runs-vs-tigers">Fighting for roster spot, O’s outfielder homers in 3 straight ABs</a></p>
<p id="o9G1wC"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/mlb-teams-that-made-the-best-offseason-moves-2023-24">These 12 teams won the MLB offseason</a></p>
<p id="Z4sJad"><strong>Houston Astros Birthdays</strong></p>
<p id="EPrGs6">OF/1B Trey Mancini (32)</p>
<p id="j0j2iB">RHP Brian Fisher (62)</p>
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/18/24104652/astros-crawfish-boil-march-18-2024Kevin Kraczkowski2024-03-16T17:34:34-05:002024-03-16T17:34:34-05:00Spring Training Game Thread, March 16. 5:05 CT
<figure>
<img alt="Houston Astros v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bERO3dbyzgI20QDAHnElBBRcUKA=/0x0:7395x4930/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73212326/2079139122.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/16/24103422/spring-training-game-thread-march-16-5-05-ctWilliam Metzger(bilbos)2024-03-16T15:43:29-05:002024-03-16T15:43:29-05:00The Houston Astros Should Do Everything They Can to Sign Blake Snell — Here’s Why
<figure>
<img alt="San Diego Padres v Houston Astros" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Z1qqd1ChegnyTPwdpVEm4fV0s4s=/0x0:3048x2032/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73212191/1668963967.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Blake Snell | Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What could Houston’s pitching staff look like with Blake Snell in the rotation?</p> <p id="d6CMK4">Long gone are the days when the Hot Stove was all we had to talk about. I know it’s only been about three weeks since the Spring Training Games commenced, but baseball never lasts long enough. </p>
<p id="bOJl6o">Anyway, with all the fake games to watch, the Hot Stove is relegated to a warming plate. Still, things can cook very well on one. That’s where Blake Snell and the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a> come in. </p>
<p id="xb0kYj">Houston’s rotation, as currently constructed (in order, including pitchers who will possibly not (and two who definitely won’t) be ready for opening day). </p>
<ol>
<li id="aMfFBn">Justin Verlander</li>
<li id="lV9c7L">Framber Valdez</li>
<li id="C22n2c">Cristian Javier</li>
<li id="VfyCIw">Lance McCullers Jr. </li>
<li id="XBGs8Z">Hunter Brown</li>
<li id="LtWbUL">Luis Garcia</li>
<li id="cbcDYc">Jose Urquidy</li>
<li id="VE7jDf">JP France</li>
<li id="a8B3hB">Ronel Blanco</li>
<li id="a1cP2n">Brandon Bielak</li>
</ol>
<p id="mPi5Sq">With Verlander, LMJ, Garcia, and now Urquidy on the mend, the rotation is currently constructed thusly:</p>
<ol>
<li id="cwF3Sr">Framber Valdez</li>
<li id="fHrTlL">Cristian Javier</li>
<li id="renv5e">Hunter Brown</li>
<li id="4gHpSY">JP France</li>
<li id="Wfh6P3">Ronel Blanco</li>
</ol>
<p id="ubaD4c">After signing Josh Hader, Houston blew past the first luxury tax threshold. In the past, Jim Crane has been reticent to approach the threshold....but it could be that he hasn’t needed to in almost a decade. Take a look at Houston’s current rotation. I know Blanco has looked pretty good this spring, and France landed a full 1.5 wins above replacement as a rookie. Keep in mind also that Brown finished the season barely above replacement level, and Houston’s “current” starting staff accumulated only about 6 bWAR through an entire season. If you can count on your starting staff comprising a fifth of your collective bWAR, then Houston would wind up at 78 victories. Not elite. </p>
<p id="KydrFy">Sure, use the five “top pitchers” regardless of current health, and you have a staff comprised of JV, FV, CJ LMJ, and HB. That’s more like it, and you’re looking at a 90-win team instead. The fact remains that we have to deal in reality. </p>
<p id="2WeXdj">The acquisition of Blake Snell will reach and easily exceed the second luxury threshold, resulting in a more substantial set of penalties. Still, look at the current rotation, including Snell — </p>
<ol>
<li id="5MUs2w">Blake Snell</li>
<li id="ldSrb9">Framber Valdez</li>
<li id="7fk79w">Cristian Javier</li>
<li id="Qr6aMH">Hunter Brown </li>
<li id="DznaUL">JP France</li>
</ol>
<p id="scYkUN">— and hopefully soon into the season — </p>
<ol>
<li id="w5tGQV">Justin Verlander</li>
<li id="yGJ0BW">Blake Snell</li>
<li id="Wz4p3i">Framber Valdez</li>
<li id="xeM8ui">Cristian Javier</li>
<li id="3uvNpM">France/Brown/Urquidy</li>
</ol>
<p id="ApKfyd">That final look is simply an embarrassment of riches, but in the age of extreme pitcher volatility, there is no such thing as “too much” pitching. Last offseason, I trumpeted from the rooftops the advent of the “Four Aces” rotation, and was sadly, very mistaken. If you add Snell to the conversation, and with the return of McCullers, by the end of the season, we could have five. </p>
<p id="ztTpXB">What would a Snell contract with the Astros be worth? It’s hard to say, seeing as how we haven’t seen Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, etc sign any sort of extension. What it could take to land him...</p>
<p id="Z8Vfr5">If I was Snell, and I need to emphasize that I am not, I would go for a short high AAV contract, somewhere in the neighborhood of two years and $80 million. A longer-term deal with a lower AAV, like a five-year $180 million deal would do it too, but again, I am not Snell. </p>
<p id="71sNlZ">I’m just spitballing here...building sand castles in the air, as it were. What do you all think it would take, and is it worth it? </p>
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/3/16/24103335/the-houston-astros-should-do-everything-they-can-to-sign-blake-snell-heres-whyKevin Kraczkowski