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Summary
Here's another guy with much higher stock in 2013 than he did at draft time. Jacob Nix has a lot of upside in his arm but for various reasons, had a round senior season that dropped his stock. The upside is still there, he's just not as polished as some thought he might be. So the value of this pick is there once again.
He has a very good frame, standing 6'4" with a good build. His shoulders are slightly sloped, but he is already filling out. His delivery is pretty good. He drives with his hips but tends to slow his momentum down late in his stride. His arm circle is good and keeps his arm away from dangerous positions.
He tops out at 96/97 on the mound with average fastball life for the majority of the time. He can get enough life at times to back a LHH off a little while still catching the inside corner. He breaking ball is a little slurvy at times but he can get some impressing sharp break at times while others getting more movement at the expense of sharpness. Throws a rare change up but needs to work on it a good bit.
Floor
Set-up reliever. Very good fastball but needs work on change up and sharpness to breaking ball.
Note: Minor league floor is an obvious one though.
Ceiling
Mid-rotation starter. There's a lot of work to get there, but don't be fooled, the upside is there.
Will he sign?
I think he will. You don't see many guys not sign in the top 10 anymore with teams having strong ideas of what it will take with the new rules. It's probably going to take a little extra money, but I think the money is there.
Bibliography
After a summer where Nix and his power arm were in top form, the big high school right-hander looked like a sure-fire top 100 type talent heading into the spring. A rough season has put a down arrow next to his name, but he still has the raw tools many scouts like to see. The UCLA commit can light up the radar gun, touching as high as 96 mph, but the rest of his pitching game remains a work in progress. He shows some feel for a changeup, though he doesn't need it all that much. His breaking ball is inconsistent and tends to be slurvy. Big and physical, there is projection to all of his stuff, with the chance of him having three Major League-average or better pitches when all is said and done. It may take him a while to get there and it might be a team that had a decision-maker who saw him over the summer that selects him in the earlier rounds of the Draft.
Player Notes:
- Pro body. Athletic, fit with frame to add good weight.
- One of top RHP in Cali.
- Very quick arm.
- Power Arsenal, FB up to 95 in spring, reports up to 97 during winter.
- Breaking ball has developed since last year, had more depth in Compton outing.
- Gained feel for breaking ball as game progressed (vs Downey)
- CH (84/85) is firm but effective.