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Summary
Life rarely works out the way you expect it, and I'm certain that college hasn't worked out the way Jace Fry planned either. Well, at least not until this year. You see, Fry was originally drafted out of high school, but was firmly committed to Oregon State, which dropped his draft status some. And thus, he stayed true to his commitment and was sent to the West Coast Summer League where he stood out.
That transitioned him into a very good freshman season in which he was a member of the rotation and earned Freshman All-American honors. The downside is that his freshman year ended early when he had to have Tommy John surgery.
He returned late in his sophomore season, pitching only out of the pen.
Yet, he came back to the rotation for this season and has been the Sunday starter. Rather odd day for a college starter that figures to be drafted on day one. But, given the uncertainty surrounding his return to the rotation and the other pitchers on the staff, that's where he ended up and has shined. He did throw a no-hitter after all.
He's carrying a 2.30 BB/9 rate and a 7.44 K/9 rate. The most impressive stat is that he has also allowed only 77 hits which makes his WHIP a 0.93. His ERA is 1.43 for the season. He is arguably been the best Sunday starter in college baseball this year.
On the mound, Fry isn't overly imposing. He stands 6'0" and comes in a hair under 200 pounds. He's basically filled out already. He gets good drive off the rubber and keeps his hips and shoulders back well until rotating for his delivery. His delivery is pretty sound. He has a low 3/4's arm slot that lead him to long arm his delivery some coming out of high school. But, the video this year shows better elbow flexion in the early part of his arm action. That will be important for his elbow moving forward.
His stuff doesn't wow you at first. He sits 90-93 with his fastball, but it does have great late movement. He's touched 96-96 in the past. It has good arm side run and sink. He is able to command it pretty good and can locate it on the outer half to righties just enough to get the corner for a called strike. Very difficult pitch on a hitter. Works both sides of the plate with it. Perfect Game says he has a four pitch mix, but looks like the slider is the primary breaking ball. Slider can have sharp break at times but can get sloppy. The good ones are above-average sliders. Also throws a change up and can use on both sides of the plate.
Floor
LOOGY. With his fastball movement in on the hands and running it over the outer edge can be really difficult on a hitter.
Ceiling
He's a #3 starter. Good velocity for a lefty and the slider can very good at times. His ultimate role with be dependent on well the change up develops as he'll have to change speeds very effectively.
Projected Draft Round
Late first to early second.
Will he sign?
I don't have a doubt about that. He's a baseball guy. His player profile lists his major as undecided, so it doesn't appear he's eager for his degree.
Bibliography
Another Beaver to make the list, Fry has been ridiculous of late. Over his last two starts, he has allowed three hits over 18 shutout innings, including a no-hitter against NIU on March 8. For the season, he now has a 1.56 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 25 K/6 BB over 40.1 innings. At 6’-0" and 200 pounds, the southpaw isn’t a power arm but knows how to use his stuff. His fastball sits in the 89-93 mph range with late movement, and he will use his slider to both sides of the plate. He adds a change-up and adds/subtracts to keep hitters off balance. He has great command of his stuff, as well.
Read more at http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-10-college-players-rise-week-5/41905#Rq89omhBpK2SpPA4.99