Is It Worth Spending Zillions on Free Agents?

Although the Astros are experiencing the dread “World Series hangover” this season, not to mention devastating injuries, nonetheless, the team’s record of 41-34 is still good enough to qualify for the playoffs this year if play ended today.

The Astros payroll, according to some sources, estimated at $192, 667, 223, is the tenth most in baseball. And yet they have a better record than five of the teams ahead of them in payroll, and are only a half-game behind the Yankees and Dodgers. The four biggest spenders are the Mets, a below .500 team at an astonishing $353.5 million; the Yankees at $277 million; and the Padres and Phillies, each over $240 million. None lead their division. The world-beating Tampa Bay Rays are 28th in spending.

Of course, we all know the Astros won the World Series last year with baseball’s eighth-highest payroll, beating the big-spending Yankees and Phils to gain the crown.

Still, the Astros appear troubled. They may not make the playoffs. Some among us blame those problems on the decisions not to sign certain free agents over the years who were fan favorites. So I thought it would be interesting to see how those players might impact the Astros this year if they were still with the team. Of course, statistical measures like WAR aren’t perfect, but they are all we have to go on. So let’s compare the guys the Astros let go to the ones that replaced them and see if signing the big-dollar free agents would have saved the team from its current doldrums.

George Springer vs. Chas McCormick/Jake Meyers

Springer..........PAs.....319.....Salary.....$25 million.....fWAR.....1.1.....wRC+.....105

McCormick.....PAs.....150.....Salary.....$753 K............fWAR.....1.1.....wRC+.....122

Meyers............PAs.....205.....Salary.....$732K.............fWAR.....1.1....wRC+.....92

Incidentally, Kyle Tucker also has a current fWAR of 1.1, and the two besides Springer that the Astros let get away, Jose Siri and Myles Straw, have 1.4 and -0.1 fWARs, respectively.

It’s hard to make a one-to-one comparison between Springer and his replacements since no one player replaced him. But whether it be McCormick or Meyers, each has produced as much in less playing time than Springer this year. And at a savings of about $23 million at least. Oh yeah, Toronto is one of those teams spending more than the Astros and winning less.

Carlos Correa vs. Jeremy Pena

Correa...........PAs.....276......Salary.....$33.33 M....fWAR......0.6....wRC+.....94

Pena...............PAs.....296.....Salary.....$755K..........fWAR.....1.4.....wRC+.....100

Could you imagine if the Astros were paying Correa that much money for barely-above replacement-level play? We’d be booing him louder than the Twins fans are. All for an additional $31M.

Justin Verlander vs. J.P. France

Verlander........IP.....52.0.......Salary.....$43M.........fWAR......0.6.....ERA.....4.50

J.P. France......IP.....47.1.........Salary.....<$720K......fWAR......0.2.....ERA.....3.42

It looks like the Astros bet right that Verlander has seen his best days. OK, we can expect positive regression from Verlander and negative regression from France. But would it be worth $42M? Of course, France is only in there because half the starting rotation blew up their arms. But so did Verlander early on, and who knows about the future of a 40-year-old.

OK, How did the big-name free-agent acquisitions the Astros made this year work out?

Jose Abreu vs Yuli Gurriel

Abreu..........PAs.....301.....Salary.....$19.5M.....fWAR.....-1.1.....wRC+.....63

Gurriel.........PAs.....191......Salary.....(?????).....fWAR......0.2....wRC+.....90

If Gurriel were with the team, surely people would have shouted that “the team should have done something.” Well, they did, and look how much worse it turned out.

Michael Brantley

Injured...............................Salary.......$12M

Rafael Montero

Montero........IP.....30.2......Salary.......$11.5M..fWAR......-0.1.....ERA.....7.04

By not signing Springer, Correa, and Verlander, the Astros saved about $97 million this year and may have actually won one more game by doing so.

On the other hand, they squandered about half of that ($43 million) on three duds and would have probably won one more game with minimum-wage replacement players in the cases of Montero and Abreu.

Some might say you left out one big free agent non-signing: Gerritt Cole. Yes, he’s been outstanding, and boy, could we use him now. But what about the back end of his contract? And keep in mind, with all the money the Yankees spend, the Astros have advanced further into the playoffs every year without Cole than the Yankees have with Cole.

Does this mean the correct answer is never to acquire talent through free agency?

No, it just means that the Astros have made pretty good decisions in recent years when they chose to pass on home-grown free agents (maybe they should have passed on Lance McCullers) and did a terrible job of acquiring them last year. If they hadn’t bought the three pieces of dead wood listed above, their payroll would be about $149 million, about 17th in baseball.

And then they’d have some money to spend on real contributors.

I suppose the lesson is: don’t let Jeff Bagwell make personnel decisions during the off-season.