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Paralysis by Analysis: Digging into Prospect Rankings

MLB: Spring Training-Miami Marlins at Houston Astros Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

The most in-depth prospect rankings that are free come via Fangraphs. The 2023 list for the Astros just dropped:

Here are a few thoughts:

  1. Fangraphs is higher on the Astro system than many other outlets, seeing it as middle of the pack (if you include Brown and Y Diaz)
  2. They’re very willing to buck convention; they’re way down on guys who are liked (Dirden, Pedro Leon), and have even revised rankings of guys they used to like (Colin Barber, Jairo Solis).
  3. The biggest shock is the 50 grade slapped on Korey Lee, whom they rank 4th.
  4. They have Drew Gilbert as a 50 and also have him as the 70th best prospect
  5. The guy they like the best from the 2022 college pitchers is Dombroski (9th), and then Knorr (17th), followed by Taylor (27th) and DeVos (32nd)
  6. The guys they’re too low on are Melton (40FV, 13th), and, most shockingly, Arrighetti (16th, 40FV). I also think they’re low on a few other guys like Will Wagner and Zack Dezenzo, who, to me, are at least 40FV players. And they’ll regret not giving Quincy Hamilton an evaluation.
  7. Guys whose rankings are appropriately revised upwards are JP France (#12), Julks (#18), Joey Loperfido (#8)

Nice intel on the guys who haven’t reached full-season ball. Jump in and share your thoughts.