Slow Starts? Maybe, But this Is Unprecedented.

Can a team succeed with players at the power positions, first and third base, ranked 31st (out of 31) and 20th in wRC+ at those positions, respectively? You’d normally think that a team with players like that in those positions was in rebuilding mode. And think of the impact when these two players are batting 2nd and 4th in the lineup.

Yes, I’m talking about Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu, normally considered superstars. We’ve been waiting a long time now for them to become themselves, often consoling ourselves that they are just “slow starters.”

Normally they are, sort of, although their idea of a slow start has usually been an average player’s idea of a good season. No, with almost a quarter of the season gone, it's getting past time to keep repeating the mantra, “slow starter, slow starter.” What’s going on with both of these players is way more than just their traditional slow start.

Today, let’s look at Alex Bregman.

Remember when Alex Bregman started his career in 2016? He was two for his first 42 PAs for a .053 batting average.

A few people were ready to call his career a bust right then and there. And yet by the time he reached 153 PAs, about where he is this season, his batting average was up to .237, and his wRC+ up to 94. By season’s end, he was up to a respectable 114 wRC+

This season, after 152 PAs, Bregman’s batting average is .195, trending strongly downward. His wRC+ is 85, even though he strikes out far less than that rookie season and walks way more.

Let’s look at Bregman’s overall hitting statistics in each of his years after about 152 PAs (+/-3).

2016...............94 wRC+. Season.......................114 wRC+

2017................95 wRC+. Season.......................123 wRC+

2018...............114 wRC+. Season.......................157 wRC+

2019...............153 wRC+. Season.......................167 wRC+

2020...............112 wRC+. Season.......................120 wRC+

2021................135 wRC+. Season......................114 wRC+

2022...............123 wRC+. Season......................136 wRC+

2023...............87 wRC+.

So yes, except for 2021, Bregman started slower than he ended up. But he never started this slow, even in his rookie year when he struck out about 27% of the time.

There are some slightly troubling changes in his underlying swing and contact profiles. His O-Swing %, (outside the zone) is at a 6-year high at 23.6%, about two percent above recent years. His contact % is down one to two percent from recent years as well, and his swinging strike percentage is up one to two percent from recent years.

His hitting profile has devolved as well. His 2023 EV of 87.7 MPH is one to two points less than in recent years. He’s hitting more fly balls than ever before, 48.6%, compared to a career average of 43.9%. More infield flies as well, 13.0%, again about one to two points more than recent averages. And according to the Fangraphs method of reckoning, his hard hit % is at an abysmal all-time low, 25.2%, compared to a career average of 34.9%.

Still, there are some reasons to believe that, to some extent, Bregman has been plagued by bad luck. His strikeout rate is at an all-time low, and his walk rate is at an (almost) all-time high. So he still has his eye. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) shows bad luck, only .196. But with more fly balls, lower exit velocity, and slow foot speed, a low BABIP should be expected to some degree.

Still, Statcast says Bregman has underperformed his underlying hitting profile. His current wOBA is .297. His xwOBA is .358. That would actually be the third-best xwOBA of his career. Strangely, until this year, Bregman’s wOBA has exceeded his xwOBA every year. So maybe the law of averages is catching up with him. Or maybe he’s due for a change of luck very soon.

I have a theory and some advice, however amateur.

Bregman has an old-school, mostly level swing. To produce home runs, he can’t just rely on the angle of his swing to produce launch angle; he has to concentrate on hitting the ball just a little, but not too far, below center. It takes him a month or so into the season to achieve that calibration. Right now, he’s too far below center, causing pop-ups and flyouts.

I say it’s about time for Bregman to stop trying to hit 30 home runs. He should be himself, a natural line-drive/doubles hitter, a la Craig Biggio. Trying to hit the ball squarely, a Breggie .300/.380/.450 slash line with 15 home runs would do me just fine.

We’ll take a dive into Jose Abreu and his early troubles later.