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Who Wins the ALCS? By How Many Games and How Many Runs?

Usually the Starting Nine makes these predictions. This time it’s your turn.

MLB: ALDS-Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

What an intriguing matchup. The Lone Star Series. The I-45 Fight for Lone Star (and perhaps World) Supremacy. Both teams won exactly 90 games.

The two teams came in at 4th and 5th in batting by wRC+, Texas and Houston, 114, and 112, respectively. Houston held the edge in pitching, ranking 8th in ERA, while the Rangers were 18th. But both teams were equal in terms of team pitching WAR at 15.2.

The Astros held a 9-4 season series advantage with several high-scoring, one-run games. But towards the season’s end, the Astros swept the Rangers in Arlington, scoring a record number of runs.

Perhaps second-half splits are more meaningful.

In the second half, the Astros resembled the 27 Yankees and were second in MLB with a 127 wRC+. The Rangers declined to 10th with a 110.

Astros pitching declined to 16th in MLB in ERA in the second half, while the Rangers remained at 18.

Injuries plagued the Astros more in the first half, but the Rangers more in the second half. Both teams come into the series relatively healthy, although the status of the Rangers’ Max Scherzer remains unclear.

This is a very broad brush. The devil is in the details. And the matchups. And the intangibles.

In the comments below, pick the winner, the number of games, and the run differential. The person who picks the number of games and is closest to the correct run differential will be announced the winner in an article featured on the homepage.

Your wisdom and foresight will be known and respected far and wide. Your comments will forever be treasured and revered. You will always have the last word on everything Astros. (There’s no sarcasm font here, sorry)

But first, take this poll.


Who wins the 2023 ALCS and by how many games

This poll is closed

  • 1%
    Rangers 4-0
    (10 votes)
  • 1%
    Rangers 4-1
    (14 votes)
  • 5%
    Rangers 4-2
    (43 votes)
  • 1%
    Rangers 4-3
    (15 votes)
  • 13%
    Astros 4-3
    (105 votes)
  • 60%
    Astros 4-2
    (464 votes)
  • 12%
    Astros 4-1
    (96 votes)
  • 2%
    Astros 4-0
    (16 votes)
763 votes total Vote Now