2022 ALDS Series Poll: Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Quick Notes

As the Astros prepare for yet another year of postseason baseball, their 7th in the last 8 years, they turn their gaze to a team that is tasting October for the first time in over two decades: the upstart Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners come into town after sweeping the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, a series that included a hard-fought Game 2 that saw them come all the way back from an 8-1 deficit to win 10-9. While that was good for one of the biggest comeback wins in playoff history, it shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise considering that Seattle has had a reputation for late-inning heroics over the past two seasons. However, it is certainly apropos to note that the comeback came at the expense of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, which has been a weak spot for Toronto.

It also came thanks to Seattle’s core of young players, which has been a strength for them all season. J.P. Crawford provided the late-game bloop-double that tied up the score in Game 2 while rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez and catcher Cal Raleigh had their fingerprints all over Game 1. But those theatrics won’t be quite so easy against the Astros, who easily won the division by 16 games partially thanks to 12 wins over Seattle this season.

That 2022 record shows just how much of the past that Seattle will need to erase if they wish to continue their march into October, especially when you look at how much trouble they’ve had in Space City itself. Since 2019 alone, the M’s have managed just 7 wins in 37 games against the Astros at Minute Maid Park, which isn’t exactly a stat that breeds confidence considering who has HFA this series. Still, if there’s one constant in the playoffs, it’s that the regular season doesn’t mean a whole hell of a lot once the calendar swaps over to October. Luckily, the Astros won’t need to rely on that record alone as they have both a stacked offense and some of the best pitching in the league.

With a rotation anchored by Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., and Framber Valdez, it’s hard to see them rolling over for Seattle the way that Toronto did. Not only that, but thanks to a bye for the WC round, the Astros can set their rotation as they like after 5 days of rest. That’s not to discount Seattle’s rotation, which features former Cincinnati hurler Luis Castillo and current Mariners Ace, but thanks to the ALCWS Seattle won’t be able to utilize him until Game 2 and he can only go in Game 5 on short rest. I don’t want to make it sound like Game 1 starter Logan Gilbert is a slouch by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not their #1.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense isn’t quite as long as the Astros’ even though Houston’s sluggers have taken a small step back this season. They do still rank in the top 3 in a ton of offensive stats though, so it’s not something to get too worked up over. The M’s don’t slug quite as much as Houston, though, who collectively mashed 214 taters this season. At the same time, Seattle’s pitching staff surrendered 186 bombs, which is good for 6th worst in MLB across the regular season. If that trend continues, I suspect this series ends in Seattle, and not in the way that the T-Mobile Park faithful would like.

As for relief pitching, that edge goes slightly to the Mariners, who used their arm barn to great effect when it came to their comeback wins this season. Andres Munoz is Seattle’s secret weapon out of the pen, a full grown man who throws easy heat that tops out at 103. If the Mariners can take a late lead, expect to see him against the heart of the lineup at some point as well as Paul Sewald, who has a majority of Seattle’s saves this season. Of course, the plan for Houston is to not need to rely too much on their pen, which would, in theory, eliminate any edge that Seattle might have.

All in all, this series represents a fight for the soul of the AL West, which will be represented in the ALCS for the 6th straight year no matter how things shake out. The question is whether or not it will be the Astros doing the honors, or the Mariners breaking through in what is the first postseason run for a lot of their young players. Either way, this looks to be a fun series if you can stand the pressure of October baseball.

2022 Offensive Stats: Mariners, Astros

AD

2022 Pitching Stats: Mariners, Astros

Projected Lineups

Mariners:

1. Julio Rodríguez , CF
2. Ty France, 1B
3. Eugenio Suárez, 3B
4. Cal Raleigh, C
5. Mitch Haniger, RF
6. Carlos Santana, DH
7. Jarred Kelenic, LF
8. Adam Frazier, 2B
9. J.P. Crawford, SS

Astros:

1. Jose Altuve, 2B
2. Jeremy Peña, SS
3. Yordan Alvarez, LF
4. Alex Bregman, 3B
5. Kyle Tucker, RF
6. Yuli Gurriel, 1B
7. Trey Mancini, DH
8. Chas McCormick, CF
9. Martín Maldonado, C

For Your Viewing and Listening Pleasure

Game 1: Tuesday, October 11th @ 2:37 pm CDT
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Listen: Mariners - KIRO 710, ESPN Radio / Astros - KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3/KLAT 1010, ESPN Radio
Watch: TBS

Game 2: Thursday, October 13th @ 2:37 pm CDT
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Listen: Mariners - KIRO 710, ESPN Radio / Astros - KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3/KLAT 1010, ESPN Radio
Watch: TBS

Game 3: Saturday, October 15th @ TBD
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Listen: Astros - KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3/KLAT 1010, ESPN Radio / Mariners - KIRO 710, ESPN Radio
Watch: TBS

Game 4*: Sunday, October 16th @ TBD
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Listen: Astros - KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3/KLAT 1010, ESPN Radio / Mariners - KIRO 710, ESPN Radio
Watch: TBS

Game 5*: Monday, October 17th @ TBD
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Listen: Mariners - KIRO 710, ESPN Radio / Astros - KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3/KLAT 1010, ESPN Radio
Watch: TBS

*if necessary