Astros Statistical Breakdown Heading into the ALDS

It’s a truism that when it comes to predicting the playoffs throw regular season trends out the window. The playoffs are a whole other season.

I’m not sure the Astros would agree. They went into the 2019 World Series with relatively cool bats, and they stayed cool in the playoffs, resulting in their seven game loss to the Washington Nats. The Nats were a red hot Wild Card team going into the playoffs winning nine of their last ten games.

The Astros lost the 2021 World Series to a hot 88 win team, the Braves. The Braves won eight of their last ten. So momentum might not be everything, but it can’t be ignored.

Both the Astros and the Mariners come into the playoffs having won seven of their last ten games.

So how do the Astros look going into the ALDS against the Mariners?

PITCHING

For the season the Astros were second in MLB in team ERA at 2.90 and first in FIP and xFIP. The Mariners were ninth in team ERA at 3.59.

The Astros team ERA for the last 14 days of the season was 2.89, seventh in MLB, and fourth among playoff contenders. Seattle was 25th with a 4.89.

As good as the Astros’ run prevention was, peripheral stats favor the Astros even more. The xFIP was first at 2.85.

The Astros starters were third in MLB at 2.22, (2.42 xFIP) while Seattle was 29th at 5.72. (4.46 xFIP)

Of course, in a five game series each team will probably only use three starters. Seattle will probably use Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, and Robbie Ray in that order. Respective 14 day ERA’s:

4.15, 4.76, 5.56.

Surprisingly, the Astros’ league-leading bullpen was weak coming into the playoffs these last two weeks, with a 4.05 ERA, 23rd in MLB. (But xFIP at 2.92.)

Seattle was 18th at 3.74 ERA. (3.71 xFIP)

BATTING

For the season the Astros had a a 112 wRC+, sixth in MLB. Seattle was just behind, 107 ranked 11th.

But in the last 14 days the Astros are coming in a little cold, 106, 12th in MLB.

On the other hand, the Mariners are red hot, first in MLB with a 127 wRC+.

The Astros going in hot in terms of wRC+ are Jose Altuve (263), Chas McCormick (181), Yordan Alvarez (166), Jeremy Pena (160).

Astros who need to find their groove are Kyle Tucker (70), Alex Bregman, (67), Martin Maldonado, (13), Trey Mancini (-14), and Aledmys Diaz, -33)

Of course, the Astros go into today’s game with six days off. It really is a total reset. Is the rest an advantage? Or did the time off take away their edge? Meanwhile, Seattle comes in sky high, beating Toronto in two games, the second a seven run comeback victory, only the third of that magnitude in playoff history.

The Astros have won five straight ALDS’s. Is that experience a benefit, or are the Astros ripe for a takedown from a young team that must feel like they are a team of destiny?

The Astros are clearly the better team, having won 106 games to Seattle’s 90 and won the season series 12-7. But in a five or seven game series the best team doesn’t always win.

Let’s hope the Astros crush their ALDS opponent again the way they’ve been able to do like no one else in the last five years.