I began making Astros most valuable prospect lists in 2012. I wanted to account for positional value as a component of my evaluation. To that end I developed this 20-80 scale (unrelated to the scouting scale) to represent the relative values of league average players at their various positions. The values can be adjusted up for plus, plus plus, and elite prospects. My whole ranking system works off this scale.
Pitchers |
Scores |
Position Players |
Scores |
||
Ace |
Potential Cy Young |
80 |
Elite Player |
Potential MVP |
80 |
#1 starter |
Potential All Star |
75 |
Plus Plus Player |
Potential All Star |
75 |
Plus Pitcher |
Base+5 |
Plus Position Player |
Base+5 |
||
#2 starter |
70 |
catcher |
70 |
||
#3 starter |
65 |
short stop |
65 |
||
#4 starter |
60 |
center fielder |
60 |
||
#5 starter & closer |
55 |
3rd baseman, right fielders & middle IF |
55 |
||
set up man |
50 |
2nd baseman, left fielders, & corner OF |
50 |
||
tandem pitcher (long RP-spot SP) |
45 |
1st baseman |
45 |
||
situational reliever, high leverage |
40 |
DH, versatile utility & bench catcher |
40 |
||
middle reliever |
35 |
bench infielder or outfielder |
35 |
||
AAA/MLB shuttle pitcher |
30 |
pinch hitter/runner |
30 |
||
unestablished or injured |
25 |
unestablished or injured |
25 |
||
organizational pitcher |
20 |
organizational position player |
20 |
By assigning each prospect a value for their potential floor and ceiling and averaging them I am able to assign each with an overall average value. The prospects are then ranked by that value. In cases where two or more prospects have the same averaged value, the players are ranked by the value of their potential floor. If two or more of them also have the same floor they are ranked by their proximity to the majors. I update the list a couple of times a year. When new prospect lists come out they often do not agree with mine but comparing them is always interesting.
|
Prospects |
Draft Rd, Year |
Potential Floor & Value |
Potential Ceiling & Value |
Level |
ETA |
Rule 5 |
Outcome |
|||
1 |
Korey Lee |
round 1, 2019 |
catcher |
70 |
+catcher |
75 |
AA |
2022 |
Dec 22 |
72.5 |
A |
2 |
Pedro Leon |
Intnl fa 2020 |
+center fielder |
65 |
+short stop |
70 |
AAA |
2022 |
Dec 24 |
67.5 |
A- |
3 |
Hunter Brown |
round 5, 2019 |
#5 starting pitcher |
55 |
#2 starter |
70 |
AAA |
2022 |
Dec 22 |
62.5 |
B+ |
4 |
Joe Perez |
round 2, 2017 |
+first baseman |
50 |
+third baseman |
60 |
AA |
2022 |
Dec 21 |
55.0 |
B- |
5 |
Peter Solomon |
round 4, 2017 |
tandem pitcher |
45 |
#4 starter |
60 |
AAA |
2021 |
40 man |
52.5 |
B- |
6 |
Jeremy Pena |
round 3, 2018 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
++ short stop |
75 |
60 day |
Injury |
Dec 21 |
52.5 |
B- |
7 |
Forrest Whitley |
round 1, 2016 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
#1 starter |
75 |
60 day |
Injury |
40 man |
52.5 |
B- |
8 |
Shawn Dubin |
round 13, 2018 |
situational reliever |
40 |
#4 starter |
60 |
AAA |
2022 |
Dec 21 |
50.0 |
C+ |
9 |
Alex Santos II |
round 2c, 2020 |
middle reliever |
35 |
#3 starter |
65 |
Low A |
2023 |
Dec 24 |
50.0 |
C+ |
10 |
Tyler Whitaker |
round 3, 2021 |
versatile utility |
40 |
right fielder |
55 |
Rookie |
2024 |
Dec 25 |
47.5 |
C+ |
|
Prospects |
Draft Rd, Year |
Potential Floor & Value |
Potential Ceiling & Value |
Level |
ETA |
Rule 5 |
Outcome |
|||
11 |
Zach Daniels |
round 4, 2020 |
bench outfielder |
35 |
center fielder |
60 |
Hi A |
2023 |
Dec 23 |
47.5 |
C+ |
12 |
J Bermudez* |
Intnl fa 2018 |
situational reliever |
40 |
#5 starter |
55 |
AA |
2023 |
Dec 23 |
47.5 |
C+ |
13 |
Jimmy Endersby |
undrafted 2020 |
middle reliever |
35 |
#4 starter |
60 |
AA |
2023 |
Dec 23 |
47.5 |
C+ |
14 |
Jaime Melendez |
Intnl fa 2019 |
middle reliever |
35 |
#4 starter |
60 |
Hi A |
2024 |
Dec 23 |
47.5 |
C+ |
15 |
Brett Conine |
round 11, 2018 |
shuttle pitcher |
30 |
#4 starter |
60 |
AAA |
2022 |
Dec 21 |
47.5 |
C+ |
16 |
JC Correa |
undrafted 2020 |
pinch hitter/runner |
30 |
short stop |
65 |
High A |
2024 |
Dec 23 |
47.5 |
C+ |
17 |
Jairo Solis |
Intnl fa 2019 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
#2 starter |
70 |
60 day |
Injury |
40 man |
47.5 |
C+ |
18 |
Elvis Garcia |
Intnl fa 2021 |
unestablished |
25 |
#2 starter |
65 |
Low A |
2024 |
Dec 25 |
47.5 |
C+ |
19 |
Alex McKenna |
round 4, 18 |
bench outfielder |
35 |
right fielder |
55 |
AA |
2022 |
Dec 21 |
45.0 |
C |
20 |
Justin Dirden |
ud fa 2020 |
bench outfielder |
35 |
right fielder |
55 |
High A |
2024 |
Dec 24 |
45.0 |
C |
|
Prospects |
Draft Rd, Year |
Potential Floor & Value |
Potential Ceiling & Value |
Level |
ETA |
Rule 5 |
Outcome |
|||
21 |
Will Wagner |
round 18, 2021 |
bench infielder |
35 |
+2nd baseman |
55 |
Low A |
2024 |
2025 |
45.0 |
C |
22 |
Matthew Barefoot |
round 6, 2019 |
pinch hitter/runner |
30 |
center fielder |
60 |
AA |
2023 |
Dec 23 |
45.0 |
C |
23 |
Tyler Ivey |
round 3, 2017 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
#3 starter |
65 |
60 day |
Injury |
40 man |
45.0 |
C |
24 |
Colin Barber |
round 4, 2019 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
+center fielder |
65 |
60 day |
Injury |
Dec 23 |
45.0 |
C |
25 |
Zack Mathews |
ud fa 2020 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
#3 starter |
65 |
60 day |
Injury |
Dec 24 |
45.0 |
C |
26 |
Chase McDermott |
round 4c, 2021 |
unestablished |
25 |
#3 starter |
65 |
Rookie |
2025 |
Dec 25 |
45.0 |
C |
27 |
Spencer Arrighetti |
round 6, 2021 |
unestablished |
25 |
#3 starter |
65 |
N/A |
2025 |
Dec 25 |
45.0 |
C |
28 |
Mike Papierski |
round 9, 2017 |
bench catcher |
40 |
+ bench catcher |
45 |
AAA |
2022 |
Dec 21 |
42.5 |
C |
29 |
Quincy Hamilton |
round 5, 2021 |
pinch hitter/runner |
30 |
outfielder |
55 |
Low A |
2025 |
Dec 25 |
42.5 |
C |
30 |
Misael Tamarez |
Intnl fa 2019 |
shuttle pitcher |
30 |
#5 starter |
55 |
High A |
2023 |
Dec 23 |
42.5 |
C |
A few exiting prospects to look for on future updates.
|
Prospects |
Draft Rd, Year |
Potential Floor & Value |
Potential Ceiling & Value |
Level |
ETA |
Rule 5 |
ETA |
|||
n/r |
Luis Báez |
Intnl fa 2022 |
left fielder |
50 |
+right fielder |
60 |
can sign in Jan 2021 |
55.0 |
B- |
||
n/r |
Colton Gordon |
round 8, 2021 |
Injury outcome uncertain |
25 |
#3 starter |
65 |
60 day |
Injury |
Dec 25 |
45.0 |
C |
n/r |
Gaby Nieves |
round 19, 2021 |
unestablished |
25 |
short stop |
65 |
Rookie |
2025 |
Dec 25 |
45.0 |
C |