FanPost

Astros most valuable prospects, August 2021 update

I began making Astros most valuable prospect lists in 2012. I wanted to account for positional value as a component of my evaluation. To that end I developed this 20-80 scale (unrelated to the scouting scale) to represent the relative values of league average players at their various positions. The values can be adjusted up for plus, plus plus, and elite prospects. My whole ranking system works off this scale.

Pitchers

Scores

Position Players

Scores

Ace

Potential Cy Young

80

Elite Player

Potential MVP

80

#1 starter

Potential All Star

75

Plus Plus Player

Potential All Star

75

Plus Pitcher

Base+5

Plus Position Player

Base+5

#2 starter

70

catcher

70

#3 starter

65

short stop

65

#4 starter

60

center fielder

60

#5 starter & closer

55

3rd baseman, right fielders & middle IF

55

set up man

50

2nd baseman, left fielders, & corner OF

50

tandem pitcher (long RP-spot SP)

45

1st baseman

45

situational reliever, high leverage

40

DH, versatile utility & bench catcher

40

middle reliever

35

bench infielder or outfielder

35

AAA/MLB shuttle pitcher

30

pinch hitter/runner

30

unestablished or injured

25

unestablished or injured

25

organizational pitcher

20

organizational position player

20

By assigning each prospect a value for their potential floor and ceiling and averaging them I am able to assign each with an overall average value. The prospects are then ranked by that value. In cases where two or more prospects have the same averaged value, the players are ranked by the value of their potential floor. If two or more of them also have the same floor they are ranked by their proximity to the majors. I update the list a couple of times a year. When new prospect lists come out they often do not agree with mine but comparing them is always interesting.

Prospects

Draft Rd, Year

Potential Floor & Value

Potential Ceiling & Value

Level

ETA

Rule 5

Outcome

1

Korey Lee

round 1, 2019

catcher

70

+catcher

75

AA

2022

Dec 22

72.5

A

2

Pedro Leon

Intnl fa 2020

+center fielder

65

+short stop

70

AAA

2022

Dec 24

67.5

A-

3

Hunter Brown

round 5, 2019

#5 starting pitcher

55

#2 starter

70

AAA

2022

Dec 22

62.5

B+

4

Joe Perez

round 2, 2017

+first baseman

50

+third baseman

60

AA

2022

Dec 21

55.0

B-

5

Peter Solomon

round 4, 2017

tandem pitcher

45

#4 starter

60

AAA

2021

40 man

52.5

B-

6

Jeremy Pena

round 3, 2018

Injury outcome uncertain

25

++ short stop

75

60 day

Injury

Dec 21

52.5

B-

7

Forrest Whitley

round 1, 2016

Injury outcome uncertain

25

#1 starter

75

60 day

Injury

40 man

52.5

B-

8

Shawn Dubin

round 13, 2018

situational reliever

40

#4 starter

60

AAA

2022

Dec 21

50.0

C+

9

Alex Santos II

round 2c, 2020

middle reliever

35

#3 starter

65

Low A

2023

Dec 24

50.0

C+

10

Tyler Whitaker

round 3, 2021

versatile utility

40

right fielder

55

Rookie

2024

Dec 25

47.5

C+

Prospects

Draft Rd, Year

Potential Floor & Value

Potential Ceiling & Value

Level

ETA

Rule 5

Outcome

11

Zach Daniels

round 4, 2020

bench outfielder

35

center fielder

60

Hi A

2023

Dec 23

47.5

C+

12

J Bermudez*

Intnl fa 2018

situational reliever

40

#5 starter

55

AA

2023

Dec 23

47.5

C+

13

Jimmy Endersby

undrafted 2020

middle reliever

35

#4 starter

60

AA

2023

Dec 23

47.5

C+

14

Jaime Melendez

Intnl fa 2019

middle reliever

35

#4 starter

60

Hi A

2024

Dec 23

47.5

C+

15

Brett Conine

round 11, 2018

shuttle pitcher

30

#4 starter

60

AAA

2022

Dec 21

47.5

C+

16

JC Correa

undrafted 2020

pinch hitter/runner

30

short stop

65

High A

2024

Dec 23

47.5

C+

17

Jairo Solis

Intnl fa 2019

Injury outcome uncertain

25

#2 starter

70

60 day

Injury

40 man

47.5

C+

18

Elvis Garcia

Intnl fa 2021

unestablished

25

#2 starter

65

Low A

2024

Dec 25

47.5

C+

19

Alex McKenna

round 4, 18

bench outfielder

35

right fielder

55

AA

2022

Dec 21

45.0

C

20

Justin Dirden

ud fa 2020

bench outfielder

35

right fielder

55

High A

2024

Dec 24

45.0

C

Prospects

Draft Rd, Year

Potential Floor & Value

Potential Ceiling & Value

Level

ETA

Rule 5

Outcome

21

Will Wagner

round 18, 2021

bench infielder

35

+2nd baseman

55

Low A

2024

2025

45.0

C

22

Matthew Barefoot

round 6, 2019

pinch hitter/runner

30

center fielder

60

AA

2023

Dec 23

45.0

C

23

Tyler Ivey

round 3, 2017

Injury outcome uncertain

25

#3 starter

65

60 day

Injury

40 man

45.0

C

24

Colin Barber

round 4, 2019

Injury outcome uncertain

25

+center fielder

65

60 day

Injury

Dec 23

45.0

C

25

Zack Mathews

ud fa 2020

Injury outcome uncertain

25

#3 starter

65

60 day

Injury

Dec 24

45.0

C

26

Chase McDermott

round 4c, 2021

unestablished

25

#3 starter

65

Rookie

2025

Dec 25

45.0

C

27

Spencer Arrighetti

round 6, 2021

unestablished

25

#3 starter

65

N/A

2025

Dec 25

45.0

C

28

Mike Papierski

round 9, 2017

bench catcher

40

+ bench catcher

45

AAA

2022

Dec 21

42.5

C

29

Quincy Hamilton

round 5, 2021

pinch hitter/runner

30

outfielder

55

Low A

2025

Dec 25

42.5

C

30

Misael Tamarez

Intnl fa 2019

shuttle pitcher

30

#5 starter

55

High A

2023

Dec 23

42.5

C

A few exiting prospects to look for on future updates.

Prospects

Draft Rd, Year

Potential Floor & Value

Potential Ceiling & Value

Level

ETA

Rule 5

ETA

n/r

Luis Báez

Intnl fa 2022

left fielder

50

+right fielder

60

can sign in Jan 2021

55.0

B-

n/r

Colton Gordon

round 8, 2021

Injury outcome uncertain

25

#3 starter

65

60 day

Injury

Dec 25

45.0

C

n/r

Gaby Nieves

round 19, 2021

unestablished

25

short stop

65

Rookie

2025

Dec 25

45.0

C