We’re now 39 games, or roughly 24 percent, through the Astros’ 2021 campaign. Nearly a quarter of the season, if you can believe it. Time sure flies when baseball is involved. During that short amount of time, this team saw its fair share of highs and lows.
Following a rather strong start to the season against the A’s and Angels, Houston experienced a prolonged slump that sent them tumbling in the standings for a while. That dreaded two-game trip to Coors Field in Denver was the exclamation point on a rough stretch of baseball. Fast forward to the middle of May and the club has reasonably turned it around. Outside of a series loss to the Yankees in New York earlier in the month, the Astros have returned to the winning ways that we’ve become accustomed to during the last six seasons.
While the overall record entering Saturday (22-17) isn’t the best in the league, the Astros’ run differential of plus-51 runs, which is second only to the White Sox at plus-64, inspires confidence for the future. So, with approximately 76 percent of a season remaining, how many wins do you expect the Astros will finish with?
The common range is between 86 to 96 wins with the vote count coming at 70 percent. In general, the poll lines up with various projections across the baseball interweb. For example, FanGraphs tabbing the Astros with an 89-73 record and Baseball Prospectus PECOTA simulations for the rest of the season have the club finishing with 92.4 wins and 69.6 losses. Round accordingly and you’re looking at a 92-70 record.
Considering the state of the club and the talent level on the roster, those projections feel just right. While we’ll probably see some deviation as the season progresses, Houston should feel pretty good about its chances to finish with at least 86 wins.
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