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Astros Most Valuable Prospects

Most have already heard this but for those who have not I am putting this brief overview here. I have been doing these Most Valuable Prospects Lists for several years now. I first began with the idea of adding positional value to the list. I was aware that top prospect lists were out there and knew nothing about what the criterion might be. I began with a blank slate and have made adjustments over the years to arrive at this format. It has remained pretty stable for the last few years. I learn as much as I can about the prospects and evaluate them for a potential floor and ceiling. I revisit those evaluations twice a year in mid February and August. I have developed a scale (found below) to assign a value to those floors and ceilings and adjust each prospects scores as seems appropriate. Those scores are then averaged to arrive at an outcome that is expressed both numerically and as a letter grade. What makes this different enough to keep doing it is that the scale differentiates for positional value. A #2 starter, a Center Fielder, and a third baseman are valued based on the position they are likely to play and how well they play that position. Comparing apples to apples gives you a different looking outcome. Often players show up that are not on many other lists while others are left off altogether. I enjoy doing these and believe it helps me to keep up with the Astros minor league system. I hope you enjoy them too. I welcome your comments and criticisms as to players values or to my methodology. I have found them to be helpful in the past and many of the improvements to what I do have come from them. This year is difficult because we have not seen or heard from many of these prospects in a year and a half. In fact there are many prospects in the system that we have never seen at all. Once we have a couple of months of minor league play I will probably do an interim update this year. Perhaps at the end of May.

February 2021 Update

Rank

Prev

Prospects

Draft

Potential Floor

Value

Potential Ceiling

Value

Level

ETA

Outcome

1

1

Forrest Whitley

1-16

#3 starting pitcher

65

Ace

80

AAA

21

72.5

A

2

2

Jeremy Pena

3-18

short stop

65

++ short stop

75

AA A

21

70.0

A-

3

3

Tyler Ivey

3-17

#5 starting pitcher

55

#2 starting pitcher

70

AA

22

62.5

B+

4

4

Jairo Solis

Int FA

#5 starting pitcher

55

#2 starting pitcher

70

AA

22

62.5

B+

5

NR

Pedro Leon

Int FA

+ left fielder

55

center fielder

60

AAA

22

57.5

B

6

5

Korey Lee

1-19

+ bench catcher

45

catcher

70

AAA

22

57.5

B

7

8

Colin Barber

4-19

left fielder

50

+ center fielder

65

AA

22

57.5

B

8

23

Hunter Brown

5-19

tandem pitcher

50

#3 starting pitcher

65

Hi A

23

57.5

B

9

7

Shawn Dubin

13-18

set up man

45

#3 starting pitcher

65

AAA

21

55.0

B-

10

9

Peter Solomon

4-17

hi-lev situational RP

40

#3 starting pitcher

65

AA

22

52.5

B-

Rank

Prev

Prospects

Draft

Potential floor

Value

Potential Ceiling

Value

Level

ETA

Outcome

11

6

Luis Garcia

Int FA

hi-lev situational RP

40

#4 starting pitcher

60

MLB

20

50.0

C+

12

16

Alex Santos

2c-20

middle reliever

35

#3 starting pitcher

65

NA

24

50.0

C+

13

26

Freudis Nova

Int FA

bench infielder

35

short stop

65

AA

22

50.0

C+

14

10

Grae Kessinger

2-19

bench infielder

35

short stop

65

AA

22

50.0

C+

15

15

Dauri Lorenzo

Int FA

bench infielder

35

short stop

65

A

25

50.0

C+

16

21

Brian Abreu

Int FA

middle reliever

35

closer

60

AAA

21

47.5

C+

17

11

Bret Conine

11-18

middle reliever

35

#4 starting pitcher

60

AAA

21

47.5

C+

18

24

Cody Orr

Fa-20

bench outfielder

35

center fielder

60

AA

22

47.5

C+

19

12

Luis Guerrero

8-19

bench outfielder

35

center fielder

60

A

23

47.5

C+

20

22

Valente Bellozo

Int FA

middle reliever

35

#4 starting pitcher

60

A

23

47.5

C+

Rank

Prev

Prospects

Draft

Potential floor

Value

Potential Ceiling

Value

Level

ETA

Outcome

21

20

Nathan Perry

5 -17

+ bench catcher

45

first baseman

45

AA

22

45.0

C

22

13

CJ Stubbs

10-19

+ bench catcher

45

+ versatile utility

45

Hi A

22

45.0

C

23

17

JC Correa

Fa-20

pinch hitter/runner

30

third basemen

55

Hi A

23

45.0

C

24

NR

Zach Daniels

4-20

pinch hitter/runner

30

center fielder

60

NA

24

45.0

C

25

14

Ryan Gusto

11-19

AAA/MLB shuttle

30

#4 starting pitcher

60

A

24

45.0

C

26

18

Zack Mathews

Fa-20

unestablished SP

25

#3 starting pitcher

65

NA

24

45.0

C

27

19

Jojanse Torres

Int FA

hi-lev situational RP

40

set up man

45

AA

22

42.5

C

28

NR

Tyler Brown

3-20

middle reliever

35

tandem pitcher

50

A

23

42.5

C

29

28

Jordan Brewer

3-19

pinch hitter

30

right fielder

55

Hi A

23

42.5

C

30

NR
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Int FA
middle reliever
35
tandem pitcher
50
AA
22
42.5
C

Scale

Pitchers

Scores

Position Players

Scores

Ace

Potential Cy Young

80

Elite Player

Potential MVP

80

#1 pitcher

Potential All Star

75

Plus Plus Player

Potential All Star

75

Plus Pitcher

Base+5

Plus Position Player

Base+5

#2 starting pitcher

70

catcher

70

#3 starting pitcher

65

short stop

65

#4 starting pitcher & closer

60

center fielder

60

#5 starting pitcher

55

third basemen & right fielders

55

tandem pitcher

50

second baseman & left fielders

50

set up men

45

first baseman

45

situational reliever, high leverage

40

DH, utility man & bench catcher

40

middle reliever

35

bench infielder or outfielder

35

AAA/MLB shuttle pitcher

30

pinch hitter/runner

30

unestablished, or injured

25

unestablished, or injured

25

organizational pitcher

20

organizational position player

20

Scores / Grades

80.0 – 77.5

A+

75.0 -72.5

A

70.0 – 67.5

A-

65.0 – 62.5

B+

60.0 – 57.5

B

55.0 – 52.5

B-

50.0 – 47.5

C+

45.0 – 42.5

C

40.0 – 37.5

C-