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Is Kyle Tucker the next Alex Bregman?

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We compared each other after their first 84 career games in the Majors, also using their scouting grades. Here’s what we found.

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It looks like Kyle Tucker turned the corner as he’s finally performing the way the Astros thought he would. He’s hitting other pitches besides fastballs and is flashing his rare combination of power and speed, the same mix that made him one of the best prospects in baseball not long ago.

After 34 games until Wednesday night win 2-1 against the Rangers, Tucker slashed .262/.321/.557 with six doubles, six triples (league leader), and six home runs. Batting now in the fifth spot, he’s recorded 29 runs batted in and has scored 32 times. That’s pretty good when you see he’s only 23 years old and had played in only 50 games before 2020.

Heck! In fact, those numbers make us think of Alex Bregman. Can Kyle, who was drafted out high school only three slots below Bregman, go the same way as Alex? Tucker’s talent and numbers in his first 84 games of his career say he’s likely to be as good as Bregman or better.

Let’s take Bregman’s first 84 career games and compare them to Tucker’s. What do we find? Almost exact traditional stats!

Right after his first 84 games in the Major Leagues, Bregman had a .262/.326/.422 slash line with a .747 OPS (360 plate appearances). He registered 85 hits in 325 at-bats, along with 20 doubles, four triples, and eight four-baggers. At the time, Alex had 42 RBIs and 43 scored runs while hitting mostly second, besides 29 bases on balls and 78 strikeouts.

But when you see Tucker’s game log, you won’t see a big difference. .233/.299/.462 with a higher OPS of .761, fewer doubles (14), more triples (7), and even more home runs (10). Also, more ribbies (44) and scored runs (51), with fewer walks (21), but fewer punchouts (63) as well.

This is encouraging for sure. Bregman ended up playing at an MVP level and has developed into an MLB star despite being only 26 years old. And we probablyly can expect that from Tucker, too. At the end of the day, not only expectations have always been high around him, but also the tools are there.

In fact, we took a look at Bregman’s scouting report from the MLB Pipeline archive. His scouting grades (on the 20-80 scale):

  • Hit: 60
  • Power: 50
  • Run: 50
  • Arm: 55
  • Field: 50
  • Overall: 60

Even though Tucker doesn’t technically qualify as a prospect anymore, we also went to the archive. Wanna see something fun? Just take a look:

  • Hit: 55
  • Power: 60
  • Run: 50
  • Arm: 55
  • Field: 45
  • Overall: 60

Based on the scales, Tucker is basically the same player, but with more power. Besides, Tucker has an edge: his speed level is good and he uses it wisely, even to swipe bags. He won’t be Billy Hamilton and steal 60 bases a year, but 20-25 swipes a year never hurt anyone, so he has added value because of that.

One of the brightest spots for the Astros this year, among all the chaos, has to be Tucker, allowing him to play every day and letting him know he’s gonna be a vital piece for the team in the long run.