2020 Projections: Outfield

As we get closer to the 2020 season, I figured it would be fun to take a look at the projected stats for the different positions throughout our team and have everyone give their predictions and vote on whether they think the projections are high or low. I will put down Steamer predictions and use ¹⁄₂ their projected HR and WAR as they have it listed for a full season.

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1.) George Springer - CF

2019 - .292/.383/.591, 39 HR, 156 wRC+, 6.5 WAR

2020 Proj - .274/.365/.511, 17 HR, 134 wRC+, 2.55 WAR

Springer has tantilized us with MVP caliber production, albeit inconsistently. Last year, in just 122 games, he put up a 6.5 WAR season, and at 30, there’s no reason he should not be able to repeat those rate stats. With that said, last year was far and away the best season of his career to date. George is in his contract year, and if an extension isn’t worked out you know he will be playing his heart out (like he usually does) to secure a well deserved large pay day.

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2.) Michael Brantley - LF

2019 - .311/.372/.503, 22 HR, 133 wRC+, 4.2 WAR

2020 Proj - .289/.350/.467, 10 HR, 118 wRC+, 1.25 WAR

When Luhnow announced the signing of Brantley, he had a reputation for being a lovable player with potential but often struck by the injury bug. He has hopefully passed the injury bug with 2 full seasons in a row, and one of his best offensive performances to date. Brantley is 32, so he may start to see some decline, but showed no sign of it last year.

3.) Josh Reddick - RF

2019 - .275/.319/.409, 14 HR, 94 wRC+, 1.0 WAR

2020 proj - .267/.326/.429, 6 HR, 101 wRC+, 0.4 WAR

It will be interesting to see if Reddick maintains his starter status with Alvarez and Tucker on the scene looking to make their mark. Reddick surprised everyone and looked to be a steal of a signing after a huge year in 2017. Unfortunately his last 2 years have left him just below average offensively and at 33, he may not turn back the clock. He still plays solid defensively and is earning a significant contract which always plays a factor, even if it shouldn’t.

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4.) Yordan Alvarez - LF / DH

2019 - .313/.412/.655, 27 HR, 178 wRC+, 3.8 WAR

2020 proj - .279/.366/.555, 18 HR, 140 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

His mild demeanor takes away nothing from the MONSTROUS year that led to him earning the unanimous election for Rookie of the Year, in one of the best rookie of the year seasons of all time. Alvarez wasted no time in hitting the scene with 27 HR in 87 games last year. At 22 years old, Alvarez is barely able to see his peak and his early success is a testament to the quality of player he is. With that said, sophomore slumps are known to be a thing, and teams will have extensive amounts of time to analyze him and look for weaknesses.

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5.) Kyle Tucker - RF/CF

2019 - .269/.319/.537, 4 HR, 122 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

2020 proj - .247/.314/.465, 10 HR, 105 wRC+, 0.65 WAR

Tucker has become a polarizing prospect within the Astros system. Highlighted as one of the top prospects in all of baseball over the past few years, people have experienced some fading in their faith in his ability as he has not seized the opportunity to become the star player many have expected him to be. Luhnow seemingly held strong in his beliefs as he consistently made him unavailable in trades. At 23, Tucker is still very young as a player, which people often forget as his time in the system after being drafted out of high school makes it seem like he’s an older player. Brimming with potential, it will be interesting to follow if Tucker can finally establish himself in the majors and hopefully fortify an outfield that will be shockingly empty after this off-season without any signings.

6.) Myles Straw - CF / 4th OF

2019 - .269/.378/.343, 0 HR, 104 wRC+, 0.9 WAR

2020 proj - .261/.335/.340, .5 HR, 86 wRC+, 0.15 WAR

With the trade of Jake Marisnick, Straw seems to be the heir apparent as our 4th outfielder and defensive specialist. He brings a fairly unparalleled level of speed, highlighted by his 70+ steals in the minors in 2018. I don’t think many question his ability to excel in a pinch runner and 4th outfielder type role but there are varying opinions about his ability to take on a more full-time type of approach providing more of the traditional speedster in center. Last year, Straw was able to produce at an above average level, if he is able to maintain that or even a 100 wRC+ type bat, he becomes a very viable player to play every day on a major league team. He will not do so via his power, but if he is able to maintain his above average eye earning himself a trip to the base paths, he has a chance to do some damage.