Could The Astros Join the Twins With Five Players With 30+ Homers?

Could Five Astros Reach 30 Homers in 2019?

The Twins have been the talk of the town, outside of Houston of course. After adding Nelson Cruz this offseason, the Twins are playoff-bound behind their power surge. They are the first team in MLB history to have five players hit 30 plus homers. Will that power play in the playoffs? That is yet to be seen, but could the Astros join them on this inclusive list?

With ten days remaining, the Astros are in a tight battle with the Yankees for the #1 seed. The Twins have hit an MLB leading 289 homers in 2019, with the Astros sitting in third place with 265 homers. The homers are nice, but the Astros don’t rely on them as much. They also have six more wins.

A lot of the discussion around town and on the Locked On Astros Podcast has been on whom the Astros match up better with in the first round. Would it be better to face the Twins or the winner of the Wild Card game? That’s a discussion for another day.

Could the Astros join the Twins on that exclusive list this season?

Could they finish the season with five players hitting 30 plus homers? It’s possible, just not probable. Right now Alex Bregman has 37, and George Springer has 35. No one else has 30 or more homers. However, three players are close.

Yuli Gurriel hit his 29th homer of the season last night and got his 100th RBI. Jose Altuve has surprised all once again by hitting 28 homers. Then you look at the likely Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez sitting there with 26 homers. They are already tied for second with many teams in MLB history with five players with 25 plus homers. With ten games left, can this trio reach 30 homers?

Let’s take a look at their at-bat to home run ratios via Baseball-Reference.

Gurriel: 18.5

Altuve: 16.6

Alvarez: 10.8

With ten games left and assuming they get four at-bats per game. That would be 40 more at-bats this year. However, we know that AJ Hinch will want to rest each player for a game or so. Maybe pull them early from a game if they have a big lead, so let’s drop that to 35 at-bats. Doing the math, let’s see how many homers they could get as the season concludes.

Gurriel could hit 1.89 more homers, but let’s round up to two homers. As I explain to my students, this is a discrete function. You can’t hit half of a home run. Altuve could hit 2.11 more homers, rounding that down, let’s say two homers. Alvarez could hit 3.24, rounding down to three homers. That would put Gurriel at 31, Altuve at 30, and Alvarez at 29.

However, Alvarez is capable of going on a tear as the season comes to a close. He still may reach 30 homers and set an unreachable franchise rookie record. Altuve may not get another day off as he sat on Sunday, but we never know with the Astros.

Records and personal accomplishments are second to the team winning another World Series in 2019. These would all represent career highs in homers for each player. AJ Hinch said it best the other day. I love this team!