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2019 First-Half FaBIO Ratings of Houston Astros MLB Pitchers (& a few 2018 Astros Pitchers, & 2019 MLB Trade Target SP)

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The initial tables that follow detail how 2019 Houston Astros major league pitchers performed relative to their league's starting pitcher or relief pitcher peers per my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) statistical evaluation system as of the All-Star break. Later tables feature former Astros as well as possible July SP trade targets.

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Methods

Each non-bunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance is sorted into 1 of the following 12 categories, and the pitcher is charged with the league's typical 2018 (prior season) runs value for said event.

1. BB or HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. GB to pull-third, 5. GB to center-third, ..., 7. LD to pull-third, ..., 12. OFFB to oppo-third

Each pitcher's final runs per plate appearance value is compared to the league peer group's mean and standard deviation for that parameter to obtain their Overall Rating, which can be further split to examine how the pitcher performed versus Opposite-Handed Batters (OHB) and versus Same-Handed Batters (SHB). A Batted Ball Rating is determined similarly after omitting all BB+HBP and K events (individual components of the Batted Ball Rating are also computed such as GB Rating, IFFB Rating, etc., using GB per batted ball, IFFB per batted ball, ... to better assess its origins and sustainability). A Control (CTL) Rating (using BB+HBP per PA) and K Rating (using K per PA) are also determined. A Youth Rating is determined by comparing the pitcher's age relative to the mean and standard deviation (SD) for that role (SP or RP) in their league.

Each rating will be expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where the number indicates the expected percentage of league peers beaten on the stat. 50 denotes league-average with 84 being one SD above average ("plus", indicated by a green number in tables), 97 being 2 SD above average ("plus plus"), 16 being one SD below average ("minus", red number in tables), and 3 being 2 SD below average ("minus minus"). Asterisks denote southpaws.

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Results: 2019 Ratings of Houston Astros

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Startery Workload Pitchers

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FaBIO seems to believe that the reins of staff ace have already been passed to Gerrit Cole. In constructing the prototype SP for MinuteMaid Park, one would prioritize: 1. K, 2. Pull OFFB Avoid, 3. LD Avoid, 4. CTL. Cole rates from 77 to 100 at 3 of the 4 with LD Avoid (singles, mostly) being his weakspot at 22. Justin Verlander rates from 84 to 96 at 3 of the 4 with Pull OFFB Avoid (HRs, increasingly) his big red flaw at 11 (amplified by livelier '19 baseball and close corner fences of MMP). The Batted-Ball-fueled 64 Overall of Wade Miley will impress you more later in the context of his 2018 FaBIO line. Even with a return to shoulder health Brad Peacock would not make for a viable postseason SP owing to such awful Batted Ball and OHB Ratings. As an elite strikethrower who gets K against LHB (via changeup) around louder batted ball contact against all comers, Jose Urquidy makes for a the most viable internal rookie SP5 candidate (he held up his end on the bargain on Saturday) at least until weak-contact-inducer Framber Valdez finds his CTL/K stride again as a PCL SP.

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Relievery Workload Pitchers

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With all the chatter about the Astros never-ending need for a reliable LHRP (a la Will Smith), note that 3 of the 6 regular RHRP are plus or better against OHB (LHB, for them) with the other 3 in the half plus to plus range. The weakness of that sextet is in fact SHB (RHB, for them) with none rating above 64. That happens to be Peacock's strength (82 SHB as '19 SP, 78 as '18 RP) so he well could be leveraged as righty-on-righty RP specialist come postseason. Collin McHugh went 96 at SHB as an '18 RP but has only mustered a 45 so far in his SP/RP-split 2019. Recent Achilles returnee Joe Smith was 76 at SHB in '18 after a 99 at it in '17. Keep a light eye out for a smaller deal involving Ian Kennedy (78 OHB/98 SHB) and a suitcase of cash coming Houston's way or a larger one with Kirby Yates (99 OHB/96 SHB) coming over from San Diego (perhaps with prospects going both ways, maybe even Kyle Tucker).

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Results: 2019 Ratings of Houston Astros, Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel (& some 2018 Ratings, too)

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Hindsight makes it easy to declare that the Astros should have offered Charlie Morton a qualifying offer or 2-year deal. But do not forget that he was a subpar MLB SP by Overall in the 2nd half of 2018 (scroll down to 38 Overall) with decreased CTL/K/BATTED marks versus the 1st half and a sore shoulder then, too.

Even with the self-inflicted March through June draft MLB layoff, departed Dallas Keuchel is not much different from his down '18 2nd-half FaBIO self aside from K being down and LD Avoid being up (bullet dodged?). Meanwhile the Astros have magically transformed Wade Miley from a league minus SP to a nearly half plus one thanks to a larger K gain and smaller CTL and Batted ones and for a mere $4.5 million. Framber Valdez (89 and 81 SHB in his 2 MLB seasons) could conceivably fill a playoff series lefty-on-lefty RP specialist role were an opponent's roster composition to call for one (beyond what the present deep arsenal of righty-on-lefty RP specialists would provide).

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Results: 2019 Ratings of Houston Astros Primary SP and Possible SP Trade Targets

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Note the FaBIO similarities between current Tiger Matthew Boyd & former one Verlander. Meanwhile Marlin Caleb Smith amounts to Boyd/Verlander but with average CTL (that makes the Pull OFFB more runs-consequential). Reds Sonny Gray & (potential farm-emptier) Luis Castillo make for Morton/McCullers surrogates with lots of GB & K around some to lots of BB. Blue Jay Marcus Stroman mirrors a sub-Cy Keuchel with CTL & GB but relatively few K. Zack Wheeler makes for the best rental stopgap SP should his arm/shoulder check out as sound. Jon Gray, German Marquez, & Noah Syndergaard profile as Brent Strom create-an-ace candidates. Robbie Ray just doesn't fit as an Astro given that he is already elite at the K and stinks at most else. It is impossible to imagine a scenario where a batted-balls-over-bullcrap GM like Luhnow is the high bidder on Madison Bumgarner.

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