2019 MLB Draft Profile: Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, UCLA

Measureables

Height: 6’5”

Weight: 226 lbs.

Bats/Throws: S/L

DOB: August 16, 1998

Player Summary

With prototypical size and a strong prep track record at Gig Harbor in Washington state, Michael Toglia was a well-regarded prospect in his high school days, ranking among the top 10 prospects in his state. The Rockies took a stab on him in the 35th round, but Toglia had his sights set on college, and headed to UCLA for the 2017 season. Right out of the gates, he established himself as a power threat, recording a .261/.382/.483 slash line with eight homers in 213 plate appearances as a freshman, and was even better in Pac-12 play with a .312/.434/.602 line. He headed to the Cape Cod League in the summer of ‘17 to stay sharp, and showed off some wood bat power with seven jacks and a .248/.306/.457 line.

His freshman campaign established Toglia as a player to watch in the 2019 class, and as a sophomore he rocketed himself near the top of lists. As a full-time starter for the Bruins, he hit .336/.449/.588 with eleven long balls and a 48/60 BB/K mark in 283 PAs. He also returned to the Cape with similar results, hitting for a low average but showing great wood bat power, and he excelled in postseason play. The huge season earned Toglia some serious hype entering 2019, with some speculation that he could go as high as top 10 in the June draft. Unfortunately, his stock took a bit of a dive early in this season as his performance took a step back in the early going. On the whole, Toglia’s command of the strike zone hasn’t been as strong this year, but he has hit for a bit more power, as his thirteen homers are a career best, as is his .301 ISO.

From a scouting standpoint, Toglia is a very appealing prospect with prototypical size for right field or first base. He has a very athletic build, and his frame is close to maxed out at this point. He’s no burner, but moves pretty well for his size and could have a chance to stick in the outfield long-term, as he also has a strong arm. His athletic profile won’t give him a lot of margin for error in MLB outfields, but it doesn’t disqualify him from playing out there. Many evaluators do project him to first base long term, where his size and flexibility would be assets. He won’t be generating a ton of value on defense, but in time he should be capable of holding down either a first base or corner outfield role on a daily basis.

At the plate, Toglia generates springy power with an athletic cut from both sides of the plate. His hands work pretty well, and if his pitch recognition and approach continue to sharpen, there’s a chance for him to be an above average hitter. Combine that with his plus raw power, and Toglia projects as heart of the order, switch hitting bat if he reaches his potential. The offensive bar will be high for him, but he has the requisite tools to clear it.

Projected Draft Round

If his performance had taken the step forward many expected in 2019, he’d have a chance to go in the top half of the first round, but players like Michael Busch and Kody Hoese have had huge years at the plate, giving them stronger statistical resumes which will likely push Toglia into the late-first to second round range. He has potential suitors as high as the 20s according to buzz.

Will he sign?

Yes.

Does he fit with Houston?

The Astros have rumored interest in Toglia, and have shown preferences for a number of Toglia’s traits in the past. He is likely in the mix.

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