FanPost

The case for Giants SP Madison Bumgarner and a proposed trade

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

As a baseball enthusiast and a San Francisco Giants fan I would like to provide my insights on how I see Bumgarner as a pitcher, what his value is, and why the Astro's could absolutely use him.

The Media Attention on Bumgarner

Earlier this week I had a conversation with a friend about arguments, and to quote him, "a majority of arguments occur because of misunderstanding or someone not reaching someone else's perceived expectations." That really made me think.. about Madison Bumgarner. Maybe it is the fact that he has three World Series wins, or maybe it is the fact that he was World Series MVP in 2014, but fans and the media alike have unrealistic expectations of him being an elite pitcher. Despite his overall good career stats; 3.08 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, he never finished in the top 3 of Cy Young voting, and while he was very good at one point, I don't think he was ever an elite pitcher. He also has regressed over the last three years. His post season numbers are better (we will get more to that later.) Bumgarner is currently sporting a career high 4.1 ERA, a 3.60 FIP and a 1.19 WHIP, all above his career averages, which really isn't any different from his last two years. The fluctuations in ERA and FIP suggests his ERA probably should have been higher the last two years and should be lower this year than it currently is. He is also a free agent at the end of the year and on a team that will absolutely trade him by the deadline. So why does the media and fans alike think that their team would be parting ways with top prospects for an elite pitcher who is failing to meet expectations when in reality he is a pretty good pitcher that is meeting expectations comparative with the last two years of his career? With Bumgarner's current stats, it would take a far less haul for Bum than for Verlander and Cole, which neither of which was too much. But what are you getting in return?

Standard Pitching
Year ERA GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
2009 1.80 1 0 10.0 8 2 2 2 3 10 40 244 4.60 1.100 7.2 1.8 2.7 9.0 3.33
2010 3.00 18 0 111.0 119 40 37 11 26 86 472 131 3.66 1.306 9.6 0.9 2.1 7.0 3.31
2011 3.21 33 0 204.2 202 82 73 12 46 191 844 109 2.67 1.212 8.9 0.5 2.0 8.4 4.15
2012 3.37 32 0 208.1 183 87 78 23 49 191 849 105 3.50 1.114 7.9 1.0 2.1 8.3 3.90
2013 2.77 31 0 201.1 146 68 62 15 62 199 803 124 3.05 1.033 6.5 0.7 2.8 8.9 3.21
2014 2.98 33 0 217.1 194 81 72 21 43 219 873 116 3.05 1.090 8.0 0.9 1.8 9.1 5.09
2015 2.93 32 0 218.1 181 73 71 21 39 234 869 131 2.87 1.008 7.5 0.9 1.6 9.6 6.00
2016 2.74 34 0 226.2 179 79 69 26 54 251 912 146 3.24 1.028 7.1 1.0 2.1 10.0 4.65
2017 3.32 17 0 111.0 101 41 41 17 20 101 450 128 3.95 1.090 8.2 1.4 1.6 8.2 5.05
2018 3.26 21 0 129.2 118 51 47 14 43 109 551 118 3.99 1.242 8.2 1.0 3.0 7.6 2.53
2019 4.10 11 0 68.0 68 37 31 10 13 70 281 98 3.60 1.191 9.0 1.3 1.7 9.3 5.38
11 Y 3.08 263 0 1706.1 1499 641 583 172 398 1661 6944 121 3.26 1.112 7.9 0.9 2.1 8.8 4.17
162 3.08 34 0 219 193 82 75 22 51 214 893 121 3.26 1.112 7.9 0.9 2.1 8.8 4.17
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/24/2019.

The Post Season version of MadBum

While regular season MadBum is not elite, Post Season MadBum is. Whatever the reasoning is, he has been better in his career in the postseason.

Postseason Pitching
Year Age Tm Lg Series Rslt Opp W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W WPA
2010 20 SFG NL NLDS W ATL 1 0 1.000 3.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 6 2 2 1 1 0 5 0 0 0 26 1.167 9.0 1.5 1.5 7.5 5.00 -0.02
2010 20 SFG NL NLCS W PHI 0 0 4.05 2 1 0 0 0 0 6.2 9 3 3 0 2 1 7 1 0 0 30 1.650 12.2 0.0 2.7 9.5 3.50 0.24
2010 20 SFG NL WS W TEX 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 0 0 0 27 0.625 3.4 0.0 2.3 6.8 3.00 0.46
2012 22 SFG NL NLDS W CIN 0 1 .000 8.31 1 1 0 0 0 0 4.1 7 4 4 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 21 1.846 14.5 2.1 2.1 8.3 4.00 -0.24
2012 22 SFG NL NLCS W STL 0 1 .000 14.73 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.2 8 6 6 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 20 2.455 19.6 4.9 2.5 4.9 2.00 -0.32
2012 22 SFG NL WS W DET 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 2 0 0 0 2 0 8 1 0 0 23 0.571 2.6 0.0 2.6 10.3 4.00 0.41
2014 24 SFG NL NLWC W PIT 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 0 1 1 0 9.0 4 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 33 0.556 4.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 10.00 0.24
2014 24 SFG NL NLDS W WSN 0 1 .000 2.57 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 6 3 2 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 29 1.000 7.7 0.0 1.3 7.7 6.00 -0.07
2014 MVP 24 SFG NL NLCS W STL 1 0 1.000 1.72 2 2 0 0 0 0 15.2 9 3 3 2 3 0 12 1 0 0 59 0.766 5.2 1.1 1.7 6.9 4.00 0.31
2014 MVP 24 SFG NL WS W KCR 2 0 1.000 0.43 3 2 1 1 1 1 21.0 9 1 1 1 1 0 17 1 0 0 74 0.476 3.9 0.4 0.4 7.3 17.00 1.26
2016 26 SFG NL NLWC W NYM 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 0 1 1 0 9.0 4 0 0 0 2 1 6 0 0 0 32 0.667 4.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 3.00 0.58
2016 26 SFG NL NLDS L CHC 0 0 5.40 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 7 3 3 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 24 1.600 12.6 1.8 1.8 7.2 4.00 -0.11
4 Yrs (12 Series) 8 3 .727 2.11 16 14 1 3 3 1 102.1 74 25 24 8 18 2 87 5 0 0 398 0.899 6.5 0.7 1.6 7.7 4.83 2.74
2 NLWC 2 0 1.000 0.00 2 2 0 2 2 0 18.0 8 0 0 0 3 1 16 0 0 0 65 0.611 4.0 0.0 1.5 8.0 5.33 0.81
4 NLDS 1 2 .333 4.43 4 4 0 0 0 0 22.1 26 12 11 3 4 0 19 1 0 0 100 1.343 10.5 1.2 1.6 7.7 4.75 -0.44
3 NLCS 1 1 .500 4.15 5 4 0 0 0 0 26.0 26 12 12 4 6 1 21 2 0 0 109 1.231 9.0 1.4 2.1 7.3 3.50 0.24
3 WS 4 0 1.000 0.25 5 4 1 1 1 1 36.0 14 1 1 1 5 0 31 2 0 0 124 0.528 3.5 0.3 1.3 7.8 6.20 2.13
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/24/2019.

As you can see, he is sporting a 2.11 career post season ERA and a .90 WHIP. BUT, it gets better. In his 2 wildcard starts he has pitched 18 innings and given up 0 runs. Yes, in two wildcard games he has pitched two career complete game shut outs. He has also pitched in 3 world series, totaling 36 innings with a mind-numbing .25 ERA and a .528 WHIP. Not to mention 31 K's, and only 14 hits and 5 walks. That's amazing. You compare these stats to his regular season numbers and every year his postseason numbers were obviously much better. Bumgarner would be not only a welcoming addition, but a serious threat for any postseason team, especially in elimination games.

Bum's attitude

So this is absolutely something I wanted to address. In a prior thread, someone misunderstood Bum's discrepancy between his regular vs postseason success as a lack of effort, therefore, he wouldn't want him on the team. I thought it'd be appropriate to discuss Bumgarner as a person.

Here is how Bum's teammates view him.

Here is who he is as a person.

In no way does he ever not give 100%. He is a country boy (another reason he would fit in Houston) a great clubhouse guy, and a gamer. The only negative with his personality is he may be a bit hubris with his fastball. Bumgarner never had a flame throwing fast ball, at his peak his average fastball was 92-93 in 2016 and has dropped to 90-91 this year. Last year, batters teed off on Bum, in which he consistently tried to challenge hitters and lost, giving up a .299 BA on his fastball. Despite the drop in velo, opponents are hitting .238 off it this year however, which is the lowest BA since 2016. To me this is a a positive sign meaning that he regressions (or drop off) may not be because he physically is regressing but he needs to be coached better. This is also evidenced by him throwing his curveball far less this year at only 13% of the time, and opponents are hitting .355 off it. In comparison, last year he threw it 23% of the time to the tune of .187. This shows me it's a mechanical flaw and he has lost confidence in his curveball, which can be fixed, and is not a problem involving regression due to structural damage of the arm, or even a worn out arm. All of this is to be considered when he could possibly land on the best staff in baseball.

Bumgarner would drastically improve in Houston

I am in the process of reading Astroball, and I know most, if not all of you folks have completed it. So I do not need to explain the absolute genius that is the Astro's front office lead by Jeff Lurhow, who has surrounded himself with like-minded staff and coaches. The Astro's have consistently gotten the most out of players they have drafted or brought in, and Bumgarner would be no different. For evidence, lets look at two recent pitchers the Astro's brought in.

Gerrit Cole

Standard Pitching
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2017 26 PIT NL 12 12 .500 4.26 33 33 0 0 0 0 203.0 199 98 96 31 55 1 196 4 0 7 849 100 4.08 1.251 8.8 1.4 2.4 8.7 3.56
2018 27 HOU AL 15 5 .750 2.88 32 32 0 1 1 0 200.1 143 68 64 19 64 0 276 7 0 9 799 143 2.70 1.033 6.4 0.9 2.9 12.4 4.31 AS,CYA-5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/24/2019.

Justin Verlander


Standard Pitching
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2017 34 DET AL 10 8 .556 3.82 28 28 0 0 0 0 172.0 153 76 73 23 67 4 176 3 0 5 729 117 4.07 1.279 8.0 1.2 3.5 9.2 2.63
2017 34 HOU AL 5 0 1.000 1.06 5 5 0 0 0 0 34.0 17 4 4 4 5 0 43 1 0 0 120 389 2.69 0.647 4.5 1.1 1.3 11.4 8.60
2018 35 HOU AL 16 9 .640 2.52 34 34 0 1 1 0 214.0 156 63 60 28 37 0 290 8 2 5 833 163 2.78 0.902 6.6 1.2 1.6 12.2 7.84 AS,CYA-2,MVP-10
15 Yrs 212 124 .631 3.36 430 430 0 24 8 0 2831.1 2434 1142 1057 284 825 27 2795 96 19 83 11620 127 3.42 1.151 7.7 0.9 2.6 8.9 3.39
162 Game Avg. 17 10 .631 3.36 34 34 0 2 1 0 224 192 90 84 22 65 2 221 8 2 7 919 127 3.42 1.151 7.7 0.9 2.6 8.9 3.39
W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
DET (13 yrs) 183 114 .616 3.49 380 380 0 23 7 0 2511.0 2225 1057 975 240 766 27 2373 83 17 78 10393 123 3.48 1.191 8.0 0.9 2.7 8.5 3.10
HOU (3 yrs) 29 10 .744 2.30 50 50 0 1 1 0 320.1 209 85 82 44 59 0 422 13 2 5 1227 180 2.97 0.837 5.9 1.2 1.7 11.9 7.15
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/24/2019.

Both of these are significant improvements. So Bumgarner tweaks his curveball, mixes his pitches up differently, and he could make an improvement like these two.

So we established that Bumgarner would help us, but I don't want to give up too much.

This is always a concern. As I have previously stated, The Astro's have THE smartest front office in baseball, so they will not overpay.

My proposed trade I made would be: RHP Peter Soloman, 3rd Abraham Toro, and OF Derek Fisher for Madison Bumgarner.

As you can see, no top prospects given up and helps the immediate need of the team while not mortgaging away the future. Based on the information provided, if you're Luhrow and the Giants offer you this trade, are you accepting?