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2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects: Houston Astros

Top rated pitching prospect Forrest Whitley - Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports


Over the last several days, I have broadcast a 2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects series via the @reillocity Twitter page.

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Refresher on FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes) Pitcher Evaluation System

Every non-bunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance (PA) is sorted into 1 of 12 categories (1. BB/HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. Pull GB, 5. Center GB, 6. Oppo GB, 7. Pull LD, 8. Center LD, 9. Oppo LD, 10. Pull OFFB, 11. Center OFFB, 12. Oppo OFFB) and the pitcher is docked/credited with a fixed league-determined runs value for the corresponding event. Over their stint in a league they end up with a runs/PA & that value is compared to the league sample of either qualifying starting pitchers (SP) or qualifying relief pitchers (RP) to estimate the percentage of league peers they stood to beat on the stat, which yields an Overall Rating. Doing that with only batted balls produces a Batted Ball Rating. A Control (CTL) Rating (BB+HBP/PA) & Strikeout (K) Rating (K/PA) are also computed, as are individual batted ball category events (GB Rating, ... Pull OFFB Avoid Rating). 97 is plus plus, 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, 3 is minus minus. Far more important than Overall Rating is how the pitcher arrived there in terms of fundamentals, as that provides a window into their prospective future as either a SP or RP at the MLB level. OHB and SHB stand for opposite-handed and same-handed batters, respectively. "Brofile" is twitter shorthand for batted ball profile.

FaBIO Profiles

Analysis of Astros Top Pitching Prospects

1. RHP Forrest Whitley

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2. RHP J.B. Bukauskas

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3. RHP Tyler Ivey

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4. RHP Peter Solomon

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5. RHP Corbin Martin

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6. RHP Josh James (#62 rank, not #58)

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7. LHP Framber Valdez

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8. RHP Brandon Bielak

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9. RHP Bryan Abreu (#120 Ranked)

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CTL, BATTED BALL, & OHB shortcomings and that he's entering his 1st option year with only 1 appearance above A (postseason A+ start) biases the MLB projection heavily in the RP direction, though he has the sort of power stuff to project well into a higher-leverage 7th/8th K specialist role.

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Others Considered for a Top 150 Placement

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Vagabond injury returnees like Sandoval and Donato do not get seen as much or written up out of deference to the surplus of more known prospects, so there is some mystery as to where present stuff grades out relative to performance metrics.

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MLB Relief Candidates

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Hernandez(-Urquidy) fits the profile of strike-throwing reverse-splits (OHB>SHB) changeup specialist (potential heir to Chris Devenski role) and slots within the contingent of Dean Deetz, Cionel Perez, Reymin Guduan (final option year), Brandon Bailey, Cristian Javier, Manny Ramirez, and others who project better as a reliever at the MLB level.

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Short on Data 2019 Follows

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Schroeder flashed a solid base of average to above-average fundamentals in his Gulf Coast League debut, other than coming up a bit short against OHB (LHB, for him as a RHP).

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The Brazilian's Dominican Summer League (pro debut) batted ball profile hints at a savory mix of multi-directional fastball movement (IFFB/LD Avoid) and higher effective fastball velocity (Pull OFFB Avoid > > OFFB Avoid).

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Jimenez' pro debut scorecard reflects an unusually high degree of polish for an international free agent signee sans prior MiLB game experience. Owing to 3 domestic (GCL) appearances, few in the public domain have seen him pitch.

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The Departed: Former Astros Farmhands

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Exit Poll

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