Over the last several days, I have broadcast a 2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects series via the @reillocity Twitter page.
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Refresher on FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes) Pitcher Evaluation System
Every non-bunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance (PA) is sorted into 1 of 12 categories (1. BB/HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. Pull GB, 5. Center GB, 6. Oppo GB, 7. Pull LD, 8. Center LD, 9. Oppo LD, 10. Pull OFFB, 11. Center OFFB, 12. Oppo OFFB) and the pitcher is docked/credited with a fixed league-determined runs value for the corresponding event. Over their stint in a league they end up with a runs/PA & that value is compared to the league sample of either qualifying starting pitchers (SP) or qualifying relief pitchers (RP) to estimate the percentage of league peers they stood to beat on the stat, which yields an Overall Rating. Doing that with only batted balls produces a Batted Ball Rating. A Control (CTL) Rating (BB+HBP/PA) & Strikeout (K) Rating (K/PA) are also computed, as are individual batted ball category events (GB Rating, ... Pull OFFB Avoid Rating). 97 is plus plus, 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, 3 is minus minus. Far more important than Overall Rating is how the pitcher arrived there in terms of fundamentals, as that provides a window into their prospective future as either a SP or RP at the MLB level. OHB and SHB stand for opposite-handed and same-handed batters, respectively. "Brofile" is twitter shorthand for batted ball profile.
FaBIO Profiles
Analysis of Astros Top Pitching Prospects
1. RHP Forrest Whitley
2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects: #2, RHP Forrest Whitley, HOU.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 1, 2019
Head & shoulders above other P prospects at K & OHB performance. Other clear strength is that 4-seamer has the riding life to generate IFFB (in run expectancy world, tacking still more virtual K onto actual K). pic.twitter.com/9m7fl6kbbk
#2 Whitley (cont'd): ...stands to compound runs consequences of fringy CTL (esp. early years) & likely stems from overuse of +/++ changeup. BB & PullOFFB bias prioritizes avoiding LD singles, & the cutter may prove important prospectively in limiting those additional one-basers.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 1, 2019
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2. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
#10 Bukauskas (cont'd): ...though he projects to be better in that realm in '19 owing to fall/spring success had w/ each of a cutter & changeup. Impressed in MLB spring training games enough to think that an MLB SP debut could be made as early as May/Jun if opportunity knocks.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 2, 2019
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3. RHP Tyler Ivey
#23 Ivey (cont'd): In AA after just 1 Fr SEC season, 1 JC season, & 3 half-seasons at A-, A, & A+. There's no rush to AAA or MLB FaBIO's #1 OVERALL '18 MiLB SP given the organizational surplus of near MLB-ready SP & his Rule 5 year (2020), but stranger things have happened.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 4, 2019
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4. RHP Peter Solomon
2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects: #33, RHP Peter Solomon, HOU.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 4, 2019
Another Ivey, sporting multidirectional hard movement & a pair of improving breakers. CTL has improved from poor at Notre Dame to borderline above-average. Will begin '19 back in A+ but shouldn't be there long. pic.twitter.com/rs1gMFPOu2
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5. RHP Corbin Martin
#37 Martin (cont'd): Sported a very sound 6 bb vs 16 k over 16.1 '19 MLB spring frames, but brofile skewed too OFFB at 11 go vs 22 ao w/ 5 hr (similar to '18 AA 2nd half). And that would be key question moving forward ... can he get K w/o assuming too much batted ball risk?
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 4, 2019
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6. RHP Josh James (#62 rank, not #58)
#58 James (cont'd): While 3 option years permits more seasoning, HOU seems to prefer deploying the 6-pro-seasons-experienced 26-year-old in MLB relief w/ perhaps some doubts as to if the newfound velocity can be maintained deeper into games or a season as a MLB SP.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 5, 2019
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7. LHP Framber Valdez
#69 Valdez (cont'd): ...that have caused BATTEDs to rate well below elite GBs in MiLB. Presently miscast in Apr MLB bullpen w/ 3 options in hand, as he would be better off working on cutter (to better get IFFB/avoid LD) 1st & CH (to supplement big breaking CB) 2nd as AAA SP.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 5, 2019
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8. RHP Brandon Bielak
2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects: #78 RHP Brandon Bielak, HOU.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 6, 2019
Couldn't repeat post-draft all-around dominance as CTL, K, & brofile wavered at times in A+ & AA play. Solid but unspectacular w/ K profile may fall short when battling other HOU prospects for MLB SP mound time. pic.twitter.com/mqSceHJDUI
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9. RHP Bryan Abreu (#120 Ranked)
CTL, BATTED BALL, & OHB shortcomings and that he's entering his 1st option year with only 1 appearance above A (postseason A+ start) biases the MLB projection heavily in the RP direction, though he has the sort of power stuff to project well into a higher-leverage 7th/8th K specialist role.
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Others Considered for a Top 150 Placement
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Vagabond injury returnees like Sandoval and Donato do not get seen as much or written up out of deference to the surplus of more known prospects, so there is some mystery as to where present stuff grades out relative to performance metrics.
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MLB Relief Candidates
Hernandez(-Urquidy) fits the profile of strike-throwing reverse-splits (OHB>SHB) changeup specialist (potential heir to Chris Devenski role) and slots within the contingent of Dean Deetz, Cionel Perez, Reymin Guduan (final option year), Brandon Bailey, Cristian Javier, Manny Ramirez, and others who project better as a reliever at the MLB level.
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Short on Data 2019 Follows
Schroeder flashed a solid base of average to above-average fundamentals in his Gulf Coast League debut, other than coming up a bit short against OHB (LHB, for him as a RHP).
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The Brazilian's Dominican Summer League (pro debut) batted ball profile hints at a savory mix of multi-directional fastball movement (IFFB/LD Avoid) and higher effective fastball velocity (Pull OFFB Avoid > > OFFB Avoid).
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Jimenez' pro debut scorecard reflects an unusually high degree of polish for an international free agent signee sans prior MiLB game experience. Owing to 3 domestic (GCL) appearances, few in the public domain have seen him pitch.
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The Departed: Former Astros Farmhands
2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects: #75, RHP Franklin Perez, DET.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 5, 2019
Lost '18 to spring lat strain & summer shoulder inflammation. Has posted minus OVERALLs since '17 A+ stint. Opens 1st option year on A+ IL (shoulder again), & must resurrect MLB SP hopes by mid-2020 at latest. pic.twitter.com/7cjkuYFhoa
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2019 Preseason Top Pitching Prospects: #100, LHP Patrick Sandoval, LAA.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 6, 2019
Kept on succeeding after July HOU to LAA trade. Strengths are K & OHB. CTL varies about avg. Pull OFFB (lower effective FB velo &/or CH reliance) were '18 red flag. Back in AA, AAA (high-altitude SLC) ahead. pic.twitter.com/RP5SVUe2S6
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Super Early '19 Breakout Prospect Candidate: RHP Trent Thornton, TOR.
— reillocity (@reillocity) April 6, 2019
2 '19 MLB GS: 10.2ip, 5h (hr), 2r, 2bb, 15k.
Solid to good '18 in AAA (HOU) & AFL. Suffers from hittable fastball disease (LD Avoid), but (unlike Dunn) has + CTL & half + OHB. Top 200 P Prospect for me pre '19. pic.twitter.com/SZT2Ijj3jZ
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Exit Poll
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