You make Crawfish Boxes great, and some of the best content here comes from our base of smart, well informed and witty commenters. So here is a sample of what you had to say this past week.
Orlandocapeda: The poet who knows it
Mike Trout is a true MVP.
Last year, so was Altuve.
But Tyler was found
In the 33rd round.
And Josh James, one round later than he.
Boyce, Tell us how you really feel about Arod
How to cheat.
How to be the most hated player in a sport.
How to lie.
How to get away with taking steroids for 12 years.
How to be a bad teammate.
How to have most of the fans of the team you play for hate you.
How to get your teammates to retire.
ESPN coverage Leaves something to be desired
in case you ever needed ass and crotch zooms on Marwin
you can thank espn
Someone thought Mike Trout was overrated. Then the sky fell in.
Actually, Trout led the majors in OPS in 2015 AND 2017. That said, if you look at OPS+, which makes adjustments for the ballpark in which the player is playing (meaning it is a far better record of which hitter actually performed the best), you’ll see that Trout led the majors in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, and is currently leading in 2018. In the two years he didn’t lead the majors in OPS+, he finished second (2013) and third (2014).
Honestly, I can’t believe I’m reading an argument that is trying to claim Trout is somehow not that great of a hitter, and that he isn’t in an entirely different class than Tyler White (much as I love White).
And of course, none of that takes into account the fact that he’s stolen 186 bases at an 84.5% success rate (13th all-time), has a career OBP% of .415 (24th all-time, and second among active players behind Votto), a career SLG% of .572 (11th all-time, and first among all active players), a career OPS of .987 (9th all-time, and first among all active players), a career OPS+ of 174 (6th all-time, and tops among active players)…
I mean… seriously.
Anybody trying to claim Trout isn’t the best offensive player in baseball of the last 6 years is either salty or just being contrary.
Or just ignorant.
Is Josh Reddick overpaid?
This post is funny- you make a wrong statement
And then refute what you just said, literally in the next sentence, while quoting numbers. Well done self ownage.
Seriously, you call him a replacement player and then provide evidence in the very next sentence that he’s above replacement level, and those numbers prorated out show he’s be at about 1.5 war when the season ends.
2.0 War is average major league regular. He’s going to be closer to that than he is replacement.
1 War is worth ~$8,000,000 on the open market. He’s probably going to end up with 1.5 War (baseball reference) which would be worth $12 million on the open market.
Reddick makes, drumroll please, $13 million!
So, you claim he’s replacement level. You immediately post numbers that he’s actually almost major league regular and your numbers show that he’s basically fairly paid, which is more or less what you’d expect for a free agent.
It’s like the internet doesn’t do average very well.
Josh Reddick is an average major leaguer. He’s a slightly below average major league regular. His pay is average for a free agent.
That could be upgraded for sure (average always can) but he’s not hurting you in any way, upgrading significantly will be difficult and expensive, and like I said earlier- he sets the floor for 1 OF spot at major league competant (something you can’t say definitively about Tucker or Kemp or Jake).
That has some value.
Teams don’t regularly give 8 mill/yr contracts to 1 WAR guys.
Lucas Duda was a 1.2 WAR guy last year. He got a 1 yr/3.5 mill contract.
The first WAR is the cheapest because it’s the easiest for a player to attain.
The claim was that 1 WAR players don’t get $8mil per season and I used Morton as an example that sometimes they do. He was a 1 WAR pitcher, due mostly to his frequency with injuries, as you cited. He signed a 2 year deal for $14mil.
I think 1WAR position players can also get the magical $8mil if they have positional flexibility.
I’m not jumping into the middle of that $/WAR debate, but will note that the Astros likely figured they were getting a pitcher who would significantly outperform his past, which made him (in their view in this scenario) a bargain as a 2+ WAR player signed for less than $8MM/yr.
Is Tony Kemp the best 9 hitter in Baseball? Don’t tell WMT
Doesn’t Kemp have the highest offensive production in the 9 spot in the league?
Maybe we don’t extol the virtues of a hitter batting ninth in a lineup.
Especially in comparison to other teams. They generally stick their worst hitter there.
But I will agree Kemp has been good.
The mind boggles at what would be an appropriate PA threshold for this, or why anyone would care about it in the first place, but if one were to set it at 40PAs, then Kemp is 9th...
If one wants to raise it to 100 PAs, for the arbitrary reason of making Kemp look better according to this arbitrary way of ranking players, then Kemp is 2nd.
WMT dropping the logic hammer
The Great White Shark Walk-off: legit?
MLB Radio Guys Making Fun of White Walkoff HR
using the hit probability in the Statcast measurement. Screw ‘em; the Crawford Boxes are there for both teams. I seem to recall an A’s HR sneaking into the Crawford boxes the other night. Anyway, the 44 degree launch angle is an amazing piece of this HR, Astros are lucky the ball did not hit the roof structure. I loved White’s interview, being all humble, then he let slip that he indeed recognized the slider as it left the pitcher’s hand and that it was up in the zone, at which time, his eyes widened. I think White knew exactly what he was doing depositing a hanging slider just over the lip of the Crawford honey hole
Marwin’s right obligue discomfort. Be nice Jlh.
Turning your hips back to the ump to question every strike call so many times can’t be good for your obliques!
I’m rec’g because I love the creativity of your comment.
3 Bearded guys hitting back to back to back (homers)
Yuli in between. But I get the sentiment.
Yuli wears his beard on top of his head
We’re a lumberjack and we’re okay
How good is Bregman?
Curiosity got the best of me
Alex Bregman is having a pretty unique season. He sits 7 doubles, 2 homers, 11 RBI and 1 walk away from these statical categories..
50 doubles 30 home runs 100 RBI 10 steals and 80 walks in a season.
To the best of my research (baseball reference) that’s only been accomplished 1 time in baseball history..
Derek Lee in 2005: 50 doubles 46 Home runs 107 RBI 15 steals 83 walks
Bregman is posting a really rare combination of skills. The combination of power (both doubles and homers), run production, speed and plate discipline is something to appreciate.
Add Lou Gehrig to the list
What’s wrong with Carlos? How to Fix?
Correa is a mess.
I say we have Daniella Rodriguez CUT HIM OFF until he starts hitting
NO SEX OR FORTNITE TILL YOU HIT
Did Brent Strom work a miracle with Ryan Pressly?
Pressly’s turnaround started this season prior to him coming here.
Read an article somewhere about it. His K rate skyrocketed.
We actually got to see that nasty curve when he was pitching against the Astros. I noticed how good he was as did the Astros.
Looks like he has changed his pitch mix since moving to Houston
His curveball is something else. Look at the z-scores for that pitch compared to other RH relievers. Notice also the cutting action on his fourseam.
So, more curveball at the expense of the FB?
I recall at the trade much discussion about his spin rates
Yup, and he can throw it for strikes so it’s not surprising they want to emphasize that pitch.
Who was the last Astro to hit .300, get 30 HR’s and 100 RBI? Will Bregman do it?
Carlos Lee in 2007 had 32 HRs 119 RBIS and batting avg of .303 but he “only” had 43 doubles
also Carlos Lee had a OBP of .354, a SLG% of 528, OPS of .882, and WAR of 2.4
Bregman has OBP of .395, SLG % .549, OPS of .944 and WAR of 6.7
long story short Bregman beats him in every statistical category
Should Kyle Tucker come back up this year? Was his bad showing earlier just bad luck?
It’s not just the low BABIP
Which is extremely low at under .200. But it’s also the rest of his statcast hitting profile seems to indicate he’s at least had some rough luck.
Exit Velo – 90 MPH
Launch Angle – 13.5%
Hard Hit % – 45.3%
Pull / Center / Oppo – 42% / 37% / 22%
O Swing / Z Swing – 24% / 81%
Z Contact – 84.3%
Bregman for comparison (although you have to consider Tucker’s extremely small sample):
Exit Velo – 89.3 MPH
Launch Angle – 17.2%
Hard Hit % – 40.5%
Pull / Center / Oppo – 48% / 32% / 20%
O Swing / Z Swing – 20% / 60%
Z Contact – 92.6%
He’s not chasing bad pitches. He’s not striking out too much. He’s making solid contact. He’s suffered from a small sample in my mind.
On Framber Valdez
Gotta love the results but he is gonna get shelled one night if he continues tossing nitroglycerin around like a water balloon
On Altuve breaking his 0-19
Our long national nightmare is over.
Posted by maris61 on Sep 5, 2018 | 10:28 PM reply rec flag
Tutorial on defensive statistics and how good is Alex Bregman defensively
If you look at UZR (which is what feeds into fWAR), there are two things causing the difference between Bregman and Jose Ramirez (which I would say is not a big one)
First, Bregman has spent 173 innings at SS this year, and he did not cover himself in glory while playing there. He made 3 throwing errors in a fairly limited number of chances. He loses 1.4 runs to Ramirez because of these innings, and all lost runs were due to Bregman’s errors.
Second, Ramirez has a better UZR at 3B than Bregman, by about 5 runs. Ramirez has played about 120 more innings at 3B this year. Again, most of this difference is due to UZR’s ErrR (error runs), where again Bregman has committed more errors than Ramirez (especially throwing errors).
I don’t watch Ramirez every day, so can’t say whether this seems right or wrong (and plenty of people watch players play every day and don’t know what the fuck they’re watching anyway), but nothing seems amiss or out of whack in the numbers. Bregman is hurt by his errors, and he’s deserved them, because he’s made a lot of bad throws this year.
FWIW, DRS agrees with UZR, and has Ramirez at 7 runs better.
Oh I’m not necessarily advocating Bregman should be ahead of Ramirez. Maybe I assumed too much that the gap was narrower in actual defensive ability but it does look like I was mistaken.
UZR just makes my head hurt.
Moustakas had 12 (5 throwing) errors in 1093.0 innings in 2017. His ErrR is 3.9
Bregman has 11 (9 throwing) errors in 1043.0 innings in 2018. His ErrR is -1.6
Not a big deal, was more or less curious how much it would affect his fWAR and it looks like it’s just over a half a win.
To be clear, ErrR is not the exact same thing as “errors” - I was making the point at a high level.
More accurately, ErrR tries to determine the amount of runs a defender saves by his ability to prevent errors compared to an average fielder at the same position. UZR doesn’t simply count up “errors.”
Ha. Yeah I figured that.
Obviously the throwing errors should be weighed differently as base runners are more likely to advance an additional base and thus more likely to score. But that’s a delta of 5.5 runs. Perhaps I should do some reading into how they calculate it.