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Analysis of the K/9 Trend in the Minors – AA (Part 2)

For those of you who have not read it, I posted an article analyzing the trend of our minor league pitchers in regards to K/9. I looked at it through results, an overview of the team, how it compared to the league, development, a glimpse of who the pitching coach is, and summarizing it up all in a tidy bow with my take.

This is the second article in that series, looking at our AA team. I will use 60 IP as the cut off due to the time passed since the last article. I will include Forrest Whitley despite not meeting that criteria, as he’s our most exciting prospect.

The Starters

Forrest Whitley

2018 – AA – 4.29 ERA ( 3.21 FIP / 3.22 xFIP), 21.0 IP, 12.9 K/9, 3.43 BB/9

2017 – A/A+/AA - 2.83 ERA, 92.1 IP, 13.9 K/9, 3.30 BB/9

Forrest Whitley has had a bit of a rough start if you look at the short stint so far this year. He did have some "time off" due to a suspension, so expecting some ramp up time is not out of ordinary. With that said, he has still posted excellent K/9 results and his FIP looks like he’s been a victim of some bad luck in the SSS.

Ryan Hartman

2018 – AA – 2.81 ERA (2.97 FIP/ 3.10 xFIP), 102.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.11 BB/9

2017 – A+ – 4.17 ERA (4.28 FIP / 4.21 xFIP), 69 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.48 BB/9

Ryan has bounced around a decent amount in his statistics – dropping 3 years consecutively in K/9 (9.46, 8.39, 6.91) but has had a significant turn around this year. An unheralded prospect, which definitely has had an extremely impressive year, that seems to be supported by the advanced statistics. I will do some research separately to see if there is any articles on what may have changed, as he has had a Josh James-esque turn around.

Framber Valdez

2018 - AA – 4.10 ERA (3.01 FIP, 2.63 xFIP), 94.1 IP, 11.45 K/9, 2.77 BB/9

2017 – A+/AA– 4.16 ERA, 110.1 IP, 10.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9

Another pitching prospect that that advanced stats seem to believe has been a victim of bad luck. He has had a mild increase (0.3 – K/9), but notably has significantly improved his BB/9. He does appear to have been a high K/9 guy throughout his career.

Corbin Martin

2018 – AA– 2.78 ERA (3.17 FIP, 3.67 xFIP), 81 IP, 7.89 K/9, 2.22 BB/9

2017 – RK/A- – 2.20 ERA, 32.3 IP, 11.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Corbin ranked as our #5 prospect at the beginning of the year on Fangraphs. I did not put in his stats for A+ in the line above to keep it to the AA side, but he pitched out of the world during his time there (0.00 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 12.3K/9 in 19 IP). He hasn’t quite achieved the K/9 that he’s had during his professional career. His overall results have still been quite solid, but it’s interesting to see the drop off in K/9.

Akeem Bostick

2018 – AA – 3.74 ERA (3.76 FIP/ 3.96 xFIP), 77 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.51 BB/9

2017 – A+/AA – 4.15 ERA, 99.2 IP, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Akeem has always been an interesting prospect to me, admittedly partially since he was "stolen" from the Rangers. He has had an extreme rollercoaster of results (ranging from a 1.50 ERA to a 5.88, with advanced stats not largely disagreeing). This year he has seen a significant uptick in his K/9 an BB/9. His previous high in the 8 different stat lines he has had was 7.45

Others:

Alex Winkelman –9.9 K/9 (up from 9.5 K/9 last year), BB/9 got much worse

Cionel Perez – 11 K/9, (Up from 8.0 last year), BB/9 got worse from 2.5 to 3.1

Yoanys Quiala – 6.91 K/9 (7.6 last year), BB/9 from 2.4 to 2.5

Analyzing the K/9 for AA Hooks:

Out of 6 Pitchers with over 60 IP, all but Corbin are currently striking out more than 1 batter per inning.

There have been 29 players to record an out as a Grizzlies’ pitcher so far this season in AAA, 20 of which have recorded more than a strikeout per inning (69%).

Stacking Up against the rest of AA:

To gain some perspective, let’s compare the Hooks to the rest of AA. There are 152 pitchers who pitched more than 60 IP in AA this year, 34 of those Pitchers achieved the 9.0 K/9 mark (22.4%).

The Astros are triple the league % in regards to number of prospects hitting this milestone.

Development:

On the development standpoint, the results are a bit more mixed at this level. I think that is somewhat to be expected with age, experimentation on pitches, and where the overall development is.

I was surprised to see that although there have been notable upticks in K/9, there seems to be a lesser focus on the reduction of BB/9. This could largely be due to them learning new pitches or other coaching elements.

A few of the prospects have taken large strides in improvement such as Ryan Hartman, Akeem Bostick, Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez. It is surprising to see Corbin Martin take a step back on that front, although his time in A+ this year would bring him close to the strike-out per inning mark.

Pitching Coach:

Bill Murphy is the Hooks’ pitching coach, currently in his third season with the Astros organization, but his first with the team. Previous to his time with the Hooks, he coached the ValleyCats who averaged 10.5 K/9 as a whole team.

Murphy is the opposite of Miller in a lot of ways, instead of the war-hardened veteran, he is 28 years old, having previously served as pitching coach for Brown University, and a few stints with a few other colleges.

During his time at Rutgers, he did pitch under legendary coach Fred Hill , who received 8 coach of the year awards and 23 different Championship titles under his name.

He is supported by a degree in Psychology, and an MBA.

Summary:

In AAA, I was shocked how well the data supported the approach, and the "Strom" magic / analytical approach’s success. I think both the development and the results are still extremely telling for the Astros mindset.

There does seem to be success in improving the K/9 in the AA club, and some examples of major improvements. I think that the mixed results in BB/9 makes sense based on where players are in their development. I believe as I look at the lower levels this trend will continue, and there will be a lot more variation in the players. This comes from more professional coaching, physical maturity, attrition of lesser players, and simply experimentation of new pitches and approaches.

I was a bit surprised on the AA pitching coaches’ background. When I did the research on AAA, I was thinking that each team’s coach would be an experienced veteran that’s an advocate of using the new analytical approach. With that said, Murphy has had a somewhat meteoric rise, as at 28, he’s been a pitching coach with the Astros for 3 years (advancing each year), with prior experience in collegiate coaching despite only ~5 years of time out of school. I am curious as to how much his Psychology background comes into play as they mentally strengthen the players to play.

Let me know your thoughts, and if anything surprised you.