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In Search of a Lefthanded Relief Trade Candidate for the Astros Fall Bullpen circa July 24 2018: Britton, Vazquez, Smith, ...


Here I will present the potential trade acquisition candidates with attention to their FaBIO histories. Each pitcher is being compared to either the qualifying sample of league starters or league relievers. The number is the cell of each table amounts to the expected percentage of seasonal league qualifiers beaten on the corresponding stat. 97 is plus plus, 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, 3 is minus minus. Most of the ratings will also be split to emphasize how each pitcher rated against OHB (opposite-handed batters, which would be righthanded batters for these lefthanders) and SHB (same-handed batters).

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Off-The-Board/Already Traded Elsewhere

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Brad Hand has slumped at both control and batted ball profile this season but has remained strong at the K. He will now join an Indians bullpen that already contains equally underperforming former FaBIO standouts Cody Allen (57 Overall Rating in 2018) and Andrew Miller (49 Overall Rating, albeit over just 66 batters faced).

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The Hot Rumor from Last July and Once Again Now (so now it seems he's been traded, too)

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Zach Britton ceased being an elite reliever circa late 2016. Now he simply possesses an extreme groundballing profile with a poorer CTL/K game. One new development in the early part of his '18 is that he has struggled to avoid the LD and that has caused his overall batted ball profile to rate well below prior standards. The Astros should maintain continued interest in Britton and mostly from the angle of gauging which prospects the Orioles are most interested in and driving up the prospect cost that Britton's next employer will have to pay to acquire his services.

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The Two Best All-Around LHRP

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Felipe (Rivero) Vazquez has registered tons of Ks and weak contact events against LHB over the 2017-2018 interval. Though not nearly as strong against RHB over the same timeframe he still rates within the neighborhood of half plus to plus against them. The Pirates asking price would figure to be high here. With LF territory in PNC Park being massive to cover, Yordan Alvarez would not figure to interest the Pirates very much given their present first base employment of Josh Bell even with his down '18 results. That probably turns their sights to GCL SS Freudis Nova as the next best tradeable position player to frame a package around, with the Pirates likely wanting 2 young starting pitching prospects to accompany him in a deal such as Francis Martes and their choice of one of Corbin Martin, Jorge Alcala, and Hector Perez. Of course, the Pirates being on a 10-game-winning streak as I post this may make them reluctant to deal Vazquez during what remains of July and by then it will be nearly impossible to trade him until the offseason.

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After Vazquez, Will Smith represents the next best option in terms of a high-performing versus-all-comers lefty reliever. The problem here is that the Giants seem unlikely to do the smart thing and throw in the towel on their season before the July 31 trade deadline passes, and Smith would not figure to make it through revocable waivers down to the Astros' claim position during August. The 2017 Tommy-John-recoveree should have 1 year of control remaining beyond 2018 before becoming a free agent.

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Mister Hot Right Now

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After several middling GB-heavy seasons around a 2016 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, Jace Fry broke out as a stronger K/GB anti-LHB weapon in the first-half of 2018. If the Astros believe that he can maintain such success through the end of October then he might be worthy of dangling a surplus starting pitching prospect in front of the White Sox to sample their willingness to nibble.

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LHB K Specialist with a Louder Batted Ball Profile

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Former starter Amir Garrett has long rated well at the LHB K but that success has been countered by louder batted ball results versus them. That said he should have more than enough stuff to take on RHB in a 6th/7th-inning role for the short-term with potential to move into a slightly higher-leverage role as experience is gained. That the Reds may retain some hope of repurposing Garrett as a starter could present some difficulty in lining up a trade agreement.

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Mostly a Weak Contact Inducer at Present who Could Improve Over Time at the K

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Jose Alvarado is a premium GB inducer who skews rather wild. Given that the Rays rushed him through the full-season minors to the big leagues over just one-plus seasons there remains some reasonable potential for him to improve at the K, in which case he could develop into a wilder version of modern-day Felipe Vazquez by 2020 or so.

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Purely a LOOGY

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Taylor Rogers gets both the K and GB reasonably well against LHB while generally avoiding the walk. He has rated consistently subpar against RHB and that has him best cast for LOOGY-biased usage. Altogether the Twins could not expect very much in terms of trade return aside from that Rogers would be controllable for upwards of 4 future seasons.

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The Baltimore Bullpen Bait-and-Switch Target

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Tanner Scott would be the primary motivating factor behind feigning interest in Zach Britton until he is dealt elsewhere. Scott fits the Charlie Morton/Lance McCullers mold of a wilder sort who excels at getting the K and inducing GB-skewed weak batted ball contact while throwing a fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s (at least while working in short relief). The Orioles overvalue velocity like perhaps no other organization in the game and as such the Astros would be wise to dangle a hard-throwing starting pitching prospect or two in their direction that they would probably value higher than the limited-to-relief by wildness Scott, who presently sports a misleading 6.67 ERA and 1.7 WHIP. For similar reasons, the Orioles would stand to have more interest in Ken Giles than most other suitors would and as such there may be a match involving Giles going to Baltimore with other hard-throwers and a potentially postseason-useful and presently-overcompensated (Orioles get salary relief) Adam Jones and Scott coming the Astros way.

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The '17 Fall-Back Plan: Trade for a Poorly Performing LHSP who Rates Well Against LHB

If the Astros went searching for this trade deadline's Francisco Liriano they would again find none other than Francisco Liriano (74 K Rating and 91 GB Rating over 65 LHB faced). This year Liriano would be joined by Wei-Yin Chen (90 K Rating and 62 GB Rating over 55 LHB faced) and at least some of the $42M to $58M owed to him for 2019-2021, and Madison Bumgarner (81 K Rating and 76 GB Rating over 30 LHB faced). Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall when word got round to Bumgarner that the Astros had interest in him as a lefthanded relief specialist?

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