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Astros Trending: Week in Review June 21- June 27

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All the Astros stats and videos fit to print

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
Arrogance Earned
Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Season Record: 54-28. First in AL West, 3.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners. Second in AL behind Boston, 1⁄2 game behind first place Red Sox. Last week the Astros were second behind the Yankees.

Pythagorean won/loss record: 59-23, best in MLB. Run differential: +174

Baseball Reference SRS: 2.1, best in MLB

The Big Trends: The Astros roll on, although not quite at the same pace as last week, when they led the league for the week both in ERA and WRC+. This week’s performances in both hitting and pitching are remarkably close to the season’s averages, although not as proficient as the week before, but still near the top in both hitting or pitching for the week. For the year the Astros continue to lead the league in WRC+ and ERA. For the year the Astros continue to lead the league in runs scored at 426, and fewest runs allowed, 252.

Week Record: 4-2. The week started last last Friday, June 22nd with a disappointing loss at home to the AL Central last place Kansas City Royals. The Royals shut out the Astros 1-0, wasting six shutout innings by Dallas Keuchel. Ken Giles was the losing pitcher, surrendering the only run of the game in the top of the ninth.

In one of the most exciting games of the year, the Astros came back in 12 innings to defeat the Royals 4-3. Evan Gattis tied the score at 3-3 with a sacrifice fly to tie the score. In the bottom of the twelfth Carlos Correa walked it off with a single in the right field gap. Collin McHugh got his 3rd win. Video here.

On Sunday, June 24th the Astros took the series like champions, dominating the royals 11-3, highlighted by an eight run second inning. Yuli Gurriel got his second home run in two nights on his way to a 3 hit, 2 run and 4 RBI night. Gerrit Cole pitched five innings surrendering only one run. Video here.

No rest for the weary, the Astros began a new series against the Toronto Blue Jays Monday, June 25th. The Blue Jays took the first game of the series, touching losing pitcher Justin Verlander for four runs, the most he has surrendered in a single game since becoming an Astro. The Blue Jays won with the long ball getting two home runs from Curtis Granderson, and another from Southeast Texas native Randal Grichuk. Grichuk saved the game defensively for the Jays with a bottom of the ninth catch that robbed George Springer of a game tying 3 run homer. Video here.

Tuesday night, June 26th the Astros got revenge, breaking open a close game with five runs in the ninth The MVP in this game was Jake Marisnick who climbed the left center field fence Spiderman-like to rob the Jays of a game tying double. He provided the big hit in the eighth, a three run home run. Alex Bregman had two three doubles and a home run, only the fourth time an Astros hitter had four extra base hits. Charlie Morton pitched seven shutout innings with 13 k’s. Video here.

Wednesday afternoon, June 27th the Astros got another walk-off win, this one in the ninth on an Alex Bregman home run, his third home run in the series, and his third walk-off hit this year. Evan Gattis kept the game close with three RBI on two doubles. This was his 30th RBI of the month, an Astros record for RBI in June. Video here.

Hitting: Below is a chart with key team statistics for the last seven days, last 30 days, and for the month. Following will be a discussion of trends and key events.

Astros Team Hitting Stats Compared to League, 7 day, 30 day, Season avg.

Time Frame OPS/rank WRC+/rank HR's/rank Runs/rank K%/rank
Time Frame OPS/rank WRC+/rank HR's/rank Runs/rank K%/rank
last 7 days .788/6th 120/6th 8/9th 32/10th 16.0/1st
last 30 days .835/1st 132/1st 41/4th 151/3rd 17.3/1st
year to date .778/3rd 117/1st 104/8th 426/1st 20.3/6th

The Astros cooled down slightly since the previous two weeks but for the week are still hitting 20% above league average and have maintained their league lead in runs scored and wRC+.

Last Week’s Individual Hitting: Below is a chart of the individual statistics compiled by the Astro’s hitters last week.

The biggest production this week came from red hot walk-off hero Alex Bregman, with 24 total bases, 5 doubles, 3 home runs, one each in the last three games, 7 RBI and a 1.322 OPS. He is quickly zeroing in on a .900 OPS for the season. ALEX BREGMAN FOR ALL-STAR!

Josh Reddick, in 10 fewer at bats has a slightly higher OPS than Bregman, and has a batting average for the week of .625.

But OPS leader is.......Jake Marisnick! OK, only 8 at bats, but even so, in those 8 at bats he had the same number of total bases as our bottom dwellers for the week, ice cold Marwin Gonzalez, George Springer and Brian McCann combined. Jake is a streaky hitter, let’s hope his half season long cold streak is over and for the rest of the year he can approximate the 122 OPS+ he achieved last season. Since June 13th he is hitting .381 with a 236 wRC+.

On the other hand, in a much larger sample, since May 16 Brian McCann has been hitting .117, with a wRC+ of -11. Since June 15th George Springer has a .082 batting average and a wRC+ of 7.

On the plus side, Evan Gattis is hitting .329, with 6 home runs and a 187 wRC+ since June 6th. In June Alex Bregman is hitting .309, with 9 home runs, 26 RBI, a 1.077 OPS, and a wRC+ of 192.

Below is a chart of season batting statistics.

For a more comprehensive look here are individual Astros hitting and pitching statistics for the season. (Baseball Reference) and here for Fangraphs.

Pitching: Below is a very detailed chart with year to date, 30 day and 7 day statistics. I will begin with analysis, and if you want to dig deeper, go for it.

For the month Astros pitching continues to be at the top in most categories. But for the month, and really longer than that, the pitching has performed above average, but not at the top. This week’s results mirror those of the last month in general.

A further breakdown reveals something, shocking, perhaps heretical. For the last month the bullpen has been better than the rotation. It is the starting pitching in the last month that is dragging down the overall statistics, and is generally performing in the average category. In the last month the bullpen is at the top or near the top in most categories. Fore example, the 30 day ERA of the starters is 4.06, 15th in the league, exactly in the middle. the FIP is rated 13th. The 30 day ERA for the relief staff is 2.14, 2nd in the league, and FIP is first.

A noticeable and persistent shortcoming for the starters is the walk rate, which for both the 7 and 30 day average is among the lowest in the league. The starters are still elite in K rate at 3rd in the 30 day average, but still rank behind the relievers, who are 1st. The 30 day WHIP for starters is 15th, for the relief staff it is 2nd.

In the first month of the season, when the starters were on track to break all sorts of records, it was noticeable that ERA was far below FIP and xFIP, which should have led one to predict regression. These discrepancies are evening out as expected regression sets in. In fact, ERA is now above xFIP for starters in the 30 day average so perhaps the ERA will again start trending down for the starters.

Consistently throughout the year the bullpen has maintained FIP, xFIP and SIERA numbers below three as an entire group. In fact the bullpen SIERA is rated first for the year at 2.65, and for the last month it is even better, 2.24, again first by a wide margin.

Here is the pitching chart.

Astros 7 Day, 30 Day and Season Pitching Stats

Time Frame ERA/rank FIP/ rank xFIP/rank AVG/rank K%/rank BB%/rank runs/rank WHIP/rank
Time Frame ERA/rank FIP/ rank xFIP/rank AVG/rank K%/rank BB%/rank runs/rank WHIP/rank
7 day total 2.84/5th 2.80/2nd 3.06/1st .203/6th 30.6/1st 8.2/13th 19/4th 1.09/5th
7 day starters 3.50/9th 3.21/6th 3.08/3rd .217/7th 29.6/1st 9.2/22nd 14/7th 1.22/13
7 day relief 1.71/5th 2.10/3rd 3.03/2nd .176/5th 32.5/2nd 6.3/7th 5/3rd 0.86/2nd
30 day total 3.41/6th 3.42/5th 3.33/2nd .219/5th 28.8/2nd 8.1/14th 103/7th 1.16/6th
30 day starters 4.06/15th 4.00/13th 3.66/5th 2.32/6th 25.9/3rd 8.8/25th 81/22nd 1.27/15
30 day relief 2.14/2nd 2.29/1st 2.68/1st .193/2nd 35.0/1st 6.7/7th 22/2nd 0.95/2nd
year total 2.86/1st 3.11/1st 3.23/1st .206/1st 28.9/1st 7.3/3rd 252/1st 1.05/1st
year starters 2.96/1st 3.32/1st 3.34/2nd .204/1st 28.3/1st 7.7/12th 182/3rd 1.06/1st
year relief 2.63/2nd 2.63/1st 2.98/1st .212/3rd 30.3/2nd 6.4/1st 70/1st 1.03/1st

Below is a chart of Astros pitchers over the last seven days.

Notice the sterling performance by Charlie Morton, seven scoreless with 13 k’s. Although very good in two previous starts against Kansas City, Dallas Keuchel’s troubles resumed last night against Toronto, allowing 6 runs in 5.1 innings.

Great relief work for the week by Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Collin McHugh and Hector Rondon.

League Comparisons: The following will be a look at how the Astros compare to their main rivals in various hitting and pitching categories.

Pitching

ERA season: Relief- Astros 2.63, Yankees 2.68, Red Sox, 3.10, Mariners 3.95, indians, 5.13

Starters- Astros 2.96, Indians, 3.37, Red Sox, 3.73, Yankees, 3.79, Mariners, 4.11

ERA 30 day: Relief- Yankees 0.93, Astros 2.14, Red Sox 2.95, Indians 3.42, Mariners 4.35

Starters- Indians 3.10, Yankees 3.19, Red Sox 3.52, Astros 4.06, Mariners 4.11

Hitting

wRC+ season: Astros 117, Yankees 113, Red Sox 112, Mariners 107, Indians 106.

wRC+ 30 day: Astros 132, Mariners 112, Red Sox 111, Indians 109, Yankees 102

I will leave it to you dear reader to ponder if the Astros ranking in starting pitching in the last 30 days, allowing a run per game more than the Indians and Yankees, and a half a run more than the Red Sox, should be a matter of concern.

On the other hand the Astros seem to be reestablishing the kind of hitting dominance that made them champions last year. And I’m sure in New York they are asking: “Where is our killers row?”

Leaders:

Batting: Average- Jose Altuve .345. Home Runs-George Springer, Evan Gattis 15. RBI-Evan Gattis 54. OPS-Jose Altuve .900. Stolen bases-Jose Altuve 12.

Pitching: Wins-Charlie Morton 10. ERA- Justin Verlander 1.82, Strikeouts- Gerrit Cole 146. Saves- Ken Giles 11. Holds- Chris Devenski 14.

Team ERA+ remains on track to tie the all-time record of 131.

Defense: The Astros continue to lead the league in fielding percentage (.990) but are now only third in defense efficiency ratio (.719) after leading in that category for much of the season.

Poll

Who is most valuable player for the week?

This poll is closed

  • 45%
    All Star Alex Bregman
    (18 votes)
  • 17%
    All Star Alex Bregman
    (7 votes)
  • 22%
    All Star Alex Bregman
    (9 votes)
  • 15%
    All Star Alex Bregman
    (6 votes)
40 votes total Vote Now