There has been a few debates on here if someone should receive a qualifying offer. The rules for Qualifying Offers can be somewhat muddy, so I am going to focus only on how it applies to the Astros in this article and simply provide links if you want a full explanation of the rules.
According to MLB.com, the Astros were not recipients of Revenue Sharing and did not exceed the Luxury-Tax salary threshold, which means:
”If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player’s contract doesn’t matter in this case. “
So basically there are less factors now that the $50 Million contract does not apply, so my take on the equation is:
Risk of Player accepting 1-year @ 17.9 Million (reported amount by NBC sports) vs the potential gain of a Compensation B Pick (roughly pick #75-80).
Let’s look at the Compensation B pick. Last year, there were 4 given (75-78), giving an extra $762-$799,000 to the draft pool (will be increased for next year).
It is tough to put a value to the additional draft pool, so here is a few picks that were within 200k of that dollar value:
JJ Matijevic - $764k
Tyler Ivey - $597k
Jake Rodgers - $614k
JD Davis - $748k
Kent Emanuel - $747k
Nolan Fontana - $875k
Brady Rodgers - $545k
Preston Tucker- $565k
It can be difficult to find the signing bonuses of the players the further you go back, so I fully admit there’s a strong possibility I missed someone.
The other aspect that is a factor is that the $800k does not particularly have to be applied in that slot (although someone has to sign there). Here are where the Overslots were for some of our players:
Joe Perez - 2017 - $365k overslot
Forrest Whitley - 2016 -$640k overslot
Riley Ferrel - 2015 - $235k overslot
Lance McCullers - 2012 - $1.2 Mil overslot
And assorted others. If anyone knows a good resource for this type of information, please feel free to post the full list.
So the question would be, would you be willing to risk paying 1 year $18 million for the following players (2018 fWAR, 2015-2018 fWAR) in exchange for a Compensation B pick - either the extra prospect or dollar values.
Dallas Keuchel (3.6, 8.6)
Charlie Morton (3.1, 6.7)
Evan Gattis (0, 3.7)
Tony Sipp (0.9, -0.1)
Marwin Gonzalez (1.6, 5.9)
Write their names and - Yes or - No next to each one. Let us know any that you think need explanation or you were on the fence about.