If Tyler Bauer Could Get More Spin He Might Get Bregman Out

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Bregman needs to say Hi to the Crawfish Boxes!

Posted by Txhorseman on Oct 5, 2018 | 3:14 PM up reply rec (8) flag

THERE IT IS, BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 5, 2018 | 3:15 PM up reply rec (2) flag

Called it!

Posted by Txhorseman on Oct 5, 2018 | 3:15 PM up reply rec (3) flag

Nice Call !

Posted by Gordo B. Staff on Oct 5, 2018 | 3:16 PM up reply rec (3) flag

Today’s game can easily be summed up w/ the Trevor Bauer self-fulfilling theorem

A(lex)^2 + B(regman)^2 = C[onspiracy(S+J+G+M+Co+Gw+R+M)]

Corollary: (V + P + M + O) = Straight-Up Cheaters.

Posted by MoJo Tuck on Oct 5, 2018 | 7:09 PM reply rec (5) flag

If Tyler Had More Spin he Might Get Marwin Out

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

I LOVE YOU TYLER

Posted by blackout14 on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:16 PM reply rec flag

BYE, BYE Bauer

BYE, Bye Bauer

BYE, BYE Bauer

It’s nice to see you go

Posted by bigtobi on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:16 PM reply rec (1) flag

MVP = Marwin Valuable Player

Posted by maris61 on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:16 PM reply rec (2) flag

Marwin!!!!

I went from what the fuck are swinging at to omg that a fair ball

Posted by bakerman360 on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:17 PM reply rec (1) flag

Nananana! Nananana! Hey Tyler! Goodbye!

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:17 PM reply rec flag

WHY DID HE SWING AT TH......!

FUCK YEAH MARWIN!

Posted by Mr. Boognish on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:15 PM reply rec (4) flag

Lol

That is basically exactly what came out of my mouth, but I suppressed the expletive with my kids in the room.

Posted by BTastros on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:17 PM up reply rec flag

Margo goes Gonzo!

2 run double!!!

4-2 Astros!

Posted by Doc Savage on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:15 PM reply rec flag

I have so much bro love right now.

Posted by AdmonkeyTX on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:15 PM reply rec flag

Maybe If Tyler Had Better Outfielders Like the Astros Have

And Kipnis in CF is an adventure at best

Dumpster fire, Dee Gordon-esque at worst!

That Indian mystique has really dissipated.

Posted by GoStros1 on Oct 7, 2018 | 3:34 PM up reply rec flag

Yeah they have a second baseman playing centerfield. That’s nuts. Like having a shortstop play left fie—- oh wait.

Posted by mhatter106 on Oct 7, 2018 | 3:35 PM up reply rec flag

Final Verdict (we hope) on the Boyce/Pink Floyd Heavy Metal Debate

If I were Boyce’s legal defense in his “Pink Floyd is heavy metal” case

I’d submit the following to the court as exhibit A:

Not Heavy Metal

Pink Floyd is pure Acid Rock.

Not Iron Maiden, Black Sabbath, or Bach.

Could Roger Waters become

So comfortably numb,

With Metallica or Strawberry Alarm Clock?

Posted by Orlandocepeda on Oct 6, 2018 | 12:15 PM up reply rec flag

Who Won the Pot From Bilbo’s Contest?

You Can Use

your winnings from Bilbo’s contest; but I guess you had to split the pot three ways, no?

Posted by Iowacowboy on Oct 6, 2018 | 6:53 AM up reply rec (1) flag

Well, I’m considering filing a complaint over including WMT’s entry. He included both what the Astros should do and will do. His winning entry came from the should do.

Posted by JohnInWisconsin on Oct 6, 2018 | 8:33 AM up reply rec (1) flag

Fair critique and I agree. You can have my share of the pot.

Posted by Willie McGee’s Twin on Oct 6, 2018 | 9:19 AM up reply rec (1) flag

Are you in Colorado?

Posted by bilbos on Oct 6, 2018 | 1:25 PM up reply edit (57)

Ruling from the replay judge in NY.

Due to the ambiguous nature of the word would, we accept the submission of WMT. Some believe that because Jeff Luhnow is baseball omniscient, that when he picks things would and should are synonymous. However we rule that WMT will have to surrender 1/2, not just 1/3 of his pot as a penalty

Posted by bilbos on Oct 6, 2018 | 1:59 PM up reply edit

Did the Ump Get Some of WMT’s Winnings?

Why is the first base ump clapping?

Posted by blackout14 on Oct 6, 2018 | 6:52 PM reply rec flag

Encouragement

Posted by Mr. Boognish on Oct 6, 2018 | 6:53 PM up reply rec flag

In his mind, he was singing “if you’re happy and you know it clap your hands.”

Posted by ochemist4 on Oct 6, 2018 | 6:53 PM up reply rec flag

Is Josh James the Xfactor, or should he just be X’ed? Ask Reillocity. (warning, set Google translate to sabremetric)

What stands out here:

1) the plus plus to better K ability did not drop off much after the transition MLB play – the offspeed stuff will play for the whiff

2) the subpar control – does not set up as the sort of SP who would get very deep into games owing to pitch inefficiency

3) the earliness of OFFB contact (PullOFFB Avoid << OFFB Avoid) – a pitcher with his plus plus fastball velocity should have a late bias to OFFB contact, and the absence of that reflects a combo of his effective fastball velocity being less than its measured velocity and overreliance on the changeup

4) the forward OHB/SHB splits – the present repertoire plays much better against RHB than LHB

Altogether the profile skews him in the direction of a back of rotation starter more so than a front of rotation one. Beyond that, working at such extremes of fastball velocity prompts some consideration be given as to whether he would be more likely to maintain that trait and sans injury working as a starter or reliever.

As for the postseason, it makes perfect sense to insert James very early behind Keuchel in Game 3 after Francona puts at least 2 extra RHB in his starting lineup (Yandy Diaz, Brandon Guyer). And the Yankees’ Astros-like heavy RHB skew to the batting lineup makes James perhaps the Astros best anti-RHB with-length weapon to deploy in the ALCS (Verlander, Cole, Morton, and McCullers are all reverse-splits RHP).

Posted by reillocity on Oct 7, 2018 | 3:54 PM reply rec (1) flag

(editors note: Hope we see it at Minute Maid against Boston)

Are the Astros really in:

The TWILIGHT ZONE?

Getty Images

I’m not so naive as to believe that

Any more than I believe McHugh had a “dead arm,” which just so happened to coincide with rostering, or losing Peacock. Later, when the Astros played the Twins, Castro told Sparks that everyone knew Brad Peacock could make the rotation as early as Fall of ‘16, and that he was glad he was doing so well Spring ’17. So, we needed somebody to sit out — what better guy than the one who argued over peanuts in arbitration? How convenient, just like McCullers, they’re live and healthy for the playoffs… and how convenient that Lance hurt himself “batting” when Framber and James needed a look-see. I thought LMJ was pulled after he gestured that his elbow had “discomfort.” Pretty much covers any type of condition, I believe that.

Posted by XXXXXXX on Oct X, 2018 | X:52 PM up reply rec flag

You almost got me.

Posted by Kastros on Oct 7, 2018 | 10:16 PM up reply rec flag

It’s best to move away slowly, with no sudden movements.

Posted by Willie McGee’s Twin on Oct 7, 2018 | 10:18 PM up reply unrec (2)

Tony Kemp got a Play off Hit!

The Tony Kemp Fan Club is optimistic.

Posted by AdmonkeyTX on Oct 8, 2018 | 3:52 PM up reply rec flag

YESSIR!

Posted by AdmonkeyTX on Oct 8, 2018 | 3:58 PM up reply rec flag

It’s Rambo.

His name should be an acronym:

Reliable

Astroholic

Maintaining

Blind

Optimism

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 8, 2018 | 3:59 PM up reply rec (2) flag

(Editor’s Note, Boyce, I find your lack of faith “concerning”)

Getty Images

Should You Stay and Cheer For Your Losing Playoff Team?

What a terrible fanbase.

Their fans are streaming for the exits. I’m sorry, but you stick with your team until the bitter end whether you win or lose.

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 8, 2018 | 4:59 PM reply rec (1) flag

Boyce

they’re down 8 runs in the eight inning and are bout to see their team window close. Cut them some slack

Posted by Slippin’Jimmy on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:00 PM up reply rec (3) flag

Eh...when the season ends and you see another team celebrate on your field.

It’s tough. But when you lose and the other team leaves the field to go celebrate in the clubhouse you stay and cheer for your guys to honor their season as well. Let them come back out onto the field and get some love for everything they’ve accomplished.

Posted by Fat 3lvis on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:04 PM up reply rec (3) flag

You don’t leave a game early.

Especially if it’s a playoff game.

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:06 PM up reply rec flag

I hate it when people do that.

Posted by Justin Schraeder on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:07 PM up reply rec (1) flag

You have tickets to a playoff baseball game.

You should stay until the end.

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:20 PM up reply rec (1) flag

Or any baseball game period.

Posted by Justin Schraeder on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:21 PM up reply rec flag

More BAUER

Somebody check the spin rate

On Bauer’s head

Posted by Señor Stan on Oct 8, 2018 | 5:40 PM up reply rec (1) flag

What About the Spin Rate on Angel Hernandez’ Head? (The Best UMP Ever)

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Angel Hernandez – three (3) overturned calls, by the bottom of the third – with no outs.

Posted by ralfabco on Oct 8, 2018 | 9:12 PM reply rec (3) flag (editors note, he had four overturned this game)

A new mlb playoff record for the future Hall of Famer.

Posted by rambo3 on Oct 8, 2018 | 9:21 PM up reply rec (2) flag

Well if he’s not I’m sure he will sue his way into the HOF.

Posted by TheAntagonist03 on Oct 9, 2018 | 10:42 AM up reply rec (1) flagUpon further review

Angel Hernandez is fucking terrible at his job.

Posted by Mr. Boognish on Oct 8, 2018 | 9:39 PM reply rec (4) flag

I can see his bust in the Hall of Fame with the replay headset on.

Posted by rambo3 on Oct 8, 2018 | 9:44 PM up reply rec (1) flag

Andrew Benintendi walks. Hernandez calls him out at 1st.

Posted by AdmonkeyTX on Oct 8, 2018 | 9:45 PM reply rec (12) flag

Damn Yankees

I know I should want game 5

But I can’t stop cheering against the Yankees.

Posted by mhatter106 on Oct 9, 2018 | 8:38 PM reply rec (1) flag

That just means you’re a baseball fan.

It also means that you’re American.

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 9, 2018 | 9:00 PM up reply rec flag

*murican

Posted by chuckiepoo on Oct 9, 2018 | 9:02 PM up reply rec flag

Make Yankee Defeats Great Again.

Posted by AdmonkeyTX on Oct 9, 2018 | 9:07 PM up reply rec flag

Yankees losses are always great.

The best ones were in 2015 and 2017.

Posted by Boyce DuBois on Oct 9, 2018 | 9:09 PM up reply rec flag

Be Smart When You Comment, or TCB’s Gonna Cut You Down

We need to step up offensively against Boston.

Last postseason, Reddick was MIA offensively, so it’s not as if we can’t win without Correa’s normal offensive production. But if Reddick continues his season-long funk—-along with a few others——the ’Stros will be in trouble against BOS. Period. We need people to step up offensively, and not just against their bullpen. Last series against Boston, we were shut down by 2 of their 3 starters before getting to their bullpen. That “strategy” will probably not work this time around.

Posted by XXXXXXXXX on Oct X, 2018 | 9:24 AM reply rec flag

Yes, the Astros need to win.

Posted by Willie McGee’s Twin on Oct 11, 2018 | 9:44 AM up reply rec (1) flag

If they’re going to do that, they’re going to need to outscore the opponents

Posted by JohnInWisconsin on Oct 11, 2018 | 9:48 AM up reply rec flag

The Astros really need to step up and hit well at important times

They also need to pitch well at important times.

They also need to play good defense at important times.

Posted by Willie McGee’s Twin on Oct 11, 2018 | 9:53 AM up reply rec flag

They need to give 110%

They need to play within themselves and not do too much.

Posted by JohnInWisconsin on Oct 11, 2018 | 10:01 AM up reply rec flag

Keep eye on ball; take it one pitch, one play, one inning at a time

Posted by Iowacowboy on Oct 11, 2018 | 10:23 AM up reply rec flag

A new study from www.oxford.wiki/org.ru

revealed that a champion’s heart is actually 10% larger than a normal heart. So no heart of a champion, then no 110%.

Posted by TheAntagonist03 on Oct 11, 2018 | 12:05 PM up reply rec (1) flag

Get Out Your Sabremetric Translator Again. And Your Calculator.(Here are the Real Odds)

I re-read Moneyball before the playoffs to get excited

And one of the lines really struck me (of course, the new math may give different odds – the book was written a lifetime ago from a computer power perspective).

He said that ‘skill alone accounts for 1 run per game and luck accounts for 4 runs per game’. So the best team is only a little more likely to win than the worst team (something to the effect of the worse team in baseball will still win 17% of the time in a 7 game series, don’t quote me on that exact number – it may have been a 5 game series).

Since I was an Industrial Engineer, I did the math. Let’s assume, although I truly believe this in my heart, that the Astros are better than the BoSox – along the lines of the Astros have a 55% chance to win each game and the Red Sox have a 45% chance.

Here are the outcomes according to those odds.

Astros in 4 9%

Astros in 5 16%

Astros in 6 19%

Astros in 7 17%

Red Sox in 4 4%

Red Sox in 5 9%

Red Sox in 6 12%

Red Sox in 7 14%

Overall

Astros 61%

Red Sox 39%

SO give me the Stros in 6. Here are the odds in a few different scenarios for you fellow nerds.

Astros a LOT better (much better than any stats suggest)

Astros 60%

Red Sox 40%

Astros in 4 13%

Astros in 5 21%

Astros in 6 21%

Astros in 7 17%

Red Sox in 4 3%

Red Sox in 5 6%

Red Sox in 6 9%

Red Sox in 7 11%

Overall

Astros 71%

Red Sox 29%

Astros marginally better

Astros 53%

Red Sox 47%

Astros in 4 8%

Astros in 5 15%

Astros in 6 17%

Astros in 7 16%

Red Sox in 4 5%

Red Sox in 5 10%

Red Sox in 6 14%

Red Sox in 7 15%

Overall

Astros 57%

Red Sox 43%

Posted by PeterInVA on Oct 12, 2018 | 9:02 AM reply rec flag

Every year, same question: What will we do November to February?

Posted by hon17 on Oct 12, 2018 | 9:56 PM up reply rec flag

Easy

From Nov. – Dec., re-watch my DVD of the 2017 World Series, plus a couple of games and other things (the Ted Williams documentary, starring Ted Tucker) I’ve recorded during the season.

If we can do it again, get the 2018 WS DVD for Christmas and watch it multiple times through Feb. Watch Field of Dreams and Bull Durham, as I do every year when baseball deprivation sets in.

Also, I think there’s a World Baseball Classic next year.

Then watch as many ST games as possible.

People tell me there’s some other sport played during Nov. – late Jan., but I don’t watch it.

Posted by maris61 on Oct 12, 2018 | 10:03 PM up reply rec flag

And I thought I was aloooooone!

Posted by hon17 on Oct 12, 2018 | 10:04 PM up reply rec flag