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2018 AL Championship Series FaBIO Pitching Preview: Boston Red Sox versus Houston Astros

Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

On the eve of 2018 AL Championship Series Game 1, the tables that follow detail how select 2018 Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox pitchers rated versus American League starting pitcher or relief pitcher peers per my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) statistical evaluation system. Ratings will be presented both on a second-half-only basis and ALDS-only basis.

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Methods

Each non-bunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance is sorted into 1 of the following 12 categories, and the pitcher is charged with the league's typical 2018 runs value for said event.

1. BB or HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. GB to pull-third, 5. GB to center-third, ..., 7. LD to pull-third, ..., 12. OFFB to oppo-third

Each pitcher's final runs per plate appearance value is compared to the league peer group's mean and standard deviation for that parameter in the 2018 second-half to obtain their Overall Rating, which can be further split to examine how the pitcher performed versus Opposite-Handed Batters (OHB) and versus Same-Handed Batters (SHB). A Batted Ball Rating is determined similarly after omitting all BB+HBP and K events (individual components of the Batted Ball Rating are also computed such as GB Rating, IFFB Rating, etc., using GB per batted ball, IFFB per batted ball, ... to better assess its origins and sustainability). A Control (CTL) Rating (using BB+HBP per PA) and K Rating (using K per PA) are also determined.

Each rating will be expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where the number indicates the expected percentage of league peers beaten on the stat. 50 denotes league-average with 84 being one SD above average ("plus", indicated by a green number in tables), 97 being 2 SD above average ("plus plus"), 16 being one SD below average ("minus", red number in tables), and 3 being 2 SD below average ("minus minus"). Asterisks denote southpaws.

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Results: 2018 Second Half And ALDS Ratings

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Starting Pitchers

Sale topped Verlander and Cole at Overall Rating in the 2nd half while posting a more solid all-around pitching profile. Given a clear 2nd-half bias among the octet of projected starters toward the LD rather than the pulled OFFB, the early portions of these games perhaps could feature far more singles than extra-base hits.

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Owing to 2nd-half OHB/SHB splits, the Red Sox would be wise to stack their lineups against all four Astros SP with RHB. Meanwhile, the Astros should add more LHB to their Porcello lineup and consider starting Marisnick over Reddick (or Marwin) versus Eovaldi. As was true in the ALDS, Hinch should not hesitate to pull Keuchel in favor of RHB-dominating James to counter an expected lopsidedly RHB lineup.

With the exception of that pulled OFFB Cole allowed (Lindor HR) and the 2 BB of Verlander, the ALDS starts of the Astros' dual aces could not have gone much better on the FaBIO scales. The lone blips of Sale were the absence of the IFFB and a couple too many LD.

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Eovaldi's outing followed his 2nd-half script with CTL and batted ball profile winning out over averagish K results. Keuchel and Porcello rated rather similarly as non-BB/non-K inducers of weaker forms of batted ball contact.

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Relief Pitchers

The 2nd half data looks as follows. As of Friday night, the Red Sox had not announced their ALCS roster; should they opt to increase their pitcher population to 12, then the courtesy-listed Bobby Poyner would stand to be the beneficiary. The Red Sox bullpen features 4 plus or better 2nd-half fundamentals: K of Matt Barnes; CTL of Ryan Brasier; K of Eduardo Rodriguez; K of Craig Kimbrel. The Astros bullpen features 7 plus or better 2nd-half fundamentals: CTL, K, and Batted Ball of Pressly; K of James; K of McCullers; CTL of Osuna; K of McHugh.

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Houston captures 8 of the 10 best bullpen platoon matchups per 2nd-half OHB/SHB splits: 1. Pressly vs LHB, 2. Sipp vs RHB, 3. James vs RHB, 4. Barnes vs LHB, 5. McCullers vs LHB, 6. McHugh vs RHB, 7. Rondon vs RHB, 8. Brasier vs RHB, 9 Pressly vs RHB, 10. Osuna vs LHB. Pressly's reverse OHB/SHB splits may limit his overall dominance in a series where 3 of the 4 opposing key offensive cogs are pure RHB (Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts). And similarly so for McCullers beyond whatever performance uncertainty exists owing to his extended 2nd half sabbatical. The reverse splits of Barnes should work against him while doing battle with a RHB-top-heavy Astros lineup. Brasier and Osuna fill a similar role for their squad as extreme strikethrowers who feature plus fastball velocity but average out-generation fundamentals. Kimbrel's very red CTL and Batted Ball profiles set up to be problematic for his squad against an opponent that fares well at putting the ball into play and often loudly so.

In terms of the ALDS round (see below), what propelled the Boston bullpen to relative success were (atypically) elite batted ball profiles posted by Brasier, Barnes, Rodriguez, Workman, and Hembree that helped offset the many free passes that the quintet issued. McHugh's all-around dominance paced the Astros, as Pressly's poorer control and some pulled OFFB pulled down his Overall Rating

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McCullers' 2 scoreless frames could not have gone more contrary to expectations given the relative absence of the BB, K, and GB.

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The Forecast

The Red Sox hold an advantage in Game 1 in Boston with Sale's better all-around profile and more balanced OHB/SHB splits trumping those of Verlander. The Game 2 SP matchup may be more closely matched than most baseball fans expect if 2nd-half Price toes the rubber and Cora commits to a more RHB-heavy lineup. The pitching edge that the Red Sox hold to begin a potential Eovaldi-Keuchel Game 3 can be reversed soon enough if 2nd-half James enters the game before Boston's bats get going and he tosses multiple stronger frames. A Porcello-Morton Game 4 sets up as a potential scoring fest where each team's poorest relief options stand to be exposed. The balance of ace SP power in Game 5 would stand to flip back in the favor of Verlander over Sale owing to homepark familiarity. Game 6 may well be the clincher that the Astros must win to avoid an unfavorable Game 7 pitching matchup in Boston.

Among key pitching-related questions to watch are ...

Does Kimbrel dodge the expected loud aerial contact around his certain walks well enough to avoid blowing one or more late leads?

To what extent do the trio of key Red Sox RHB hit/slug the semi-RHB-vulnerable Verlander and Cole?

Does 2nd-half or ALDS/Ghosts-of-Postseason-Starts-Past Price appear?

Does Hinch continue to trust in Keuchel too much too long?

Does postseason-inexperienced and perhaps rusty James dominate RHB as he did in the regular MiLB/MLB season?

Does McHugh dominate RHB and fare well enough against LHB to prevent Hinch from overworking a weary Pressly?

Do the Astros do damage when they get their licks at the soft Workman/Kelly/Hembree underbelly of the Boston bullpen?

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