The University of Florida has a crazy abundance of arms. Their weekday starters are considered top ten round material. One of the pitchers that is considered for the first overall pick, A.J. Puk, isn't even their Ace/Friday Night Starter. Logan Shore carries that title. And he's earned it.
Shore came out of high school as one of the more polished high school arms to defer pro ball. He came in and started right away as a Freshman and tossed 95 2/3 innings that year. The next year he followed it up with 112 1/3 innings. This season he has 86 innings.
He's done more than just accrue innings, they've been quality innings. His ERA has been under 3 every season. He's never had a walk-rate over 2 BB/9. His strikeout rate has increased every season as well and topped out at 7.95 SO/9 this season. Not great, but when you limit walks to just 1.36 BB/9, it's great. He also had a 0.97 WHIP this season in the SEC.
He's an average fastball velocity guy, but what he lack is velocity (91-93 mph), he gets in movement. He has a lot of arm side run on what appears to be a two-seamer. He also throws a very nice change up with similar movement but about 8-10 mph slower. The slider is more of a downward breaking slider with limited run.
His mechanics are pretty simple and is pretty solid across the board. He's absent of red flags but he's not perfect. He could do better with his front side and at times looks a little stiff in the hips.
I can sometimes be apprehensive about guys who are primarily sinker/changeup combos in college. Changeups are a tough pitch to scout and doesn't always translate to pro levels as well as you'd expect. Then some work better in the pros than they did in college. Because of that and his relative polish, he could top out as groundball type specialist in the pen.
He may be at best a number four starter. He's doesn't have the breaking ball that can get him out of jam to punch a hitter out. It needs better tilt to it in order to be a whiff pitch. Otherwise, he's mostly a weak contact inducer who commands every pitch and fills the strike zone.
Projected Draft Round
He's one of most polished pitchers in the draft and doesn't need much time in the minors. That makes him attractive for teams who need help soon. He's a late first round or early second round type.
Will he sign?
Yeah, he's the Friday night starter for one of the top ranked teams in the tournament. Not much else to prove.
Shore projects as a number four starter rather than a Puk-like dominator, but Shore won't need much of a minor league apprenticeship and should beat his Gator teammate to the majors. The Twins pick 15th this year; Shore is generally seen as a late first-rounder. Will they draft him again? 15th for Shore is probably an overdraft but if the Twins want him, they'd have to take him there. Their next pick is at 56 and Shore won't be around by then.
Shore is an interesting pitcher to watch going into 2016 and is a guy that could climb up the charts with a strong spring. He has a very good mechanics with a three-quarter arm slot and clean delivery, a plus changeup and a decent curveball. Shore has amazing command that will make him a commodity in any team’s farm system and it’s rare to see him walk a batter. He’s also has a fantastic glove and looks like a future Gold Glove contender. Shore has a chance to be a three, but looks more like a back of the rotation starter.
FUTURE: Unlike teammate A.J. Puk, Shore doesn’t have any projection left in his body. He’s been pretty much these are guy since he stepped on campus, just an ever refining version of himself. Thick but not stocky, has the look of an innings eater. While he’s undoubtedly a better college pitcher than Puk, he’s not quite the pro prospect. He should go in the 1st or 2nd round where I see him as an advanced and fast moving prospect who projects as a mid to back end of the rotation work horse.