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Best and worst case scenarios for the 2016 Houston Astros

The start of the season is upon us which means it's time for some season predictions. How will the Astros fare in 2016?

2016 AL MVP?
2016 AL MVP?
Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

The regular season is just around the corner! To celebrate the end of Spring Training, I’m going to provide a few scenarios on how this season may shake out for the Astros. Are you ready for some wild and mild scenarios? Let’s get to it!

Best-Case Wild Scenario

It should come as no surprise that the Astros winning the 2016 World Series is the best possible outcome.

The possibilities are endless, but below is the best case scenario ever:

  • Astros win the AL West with 100+ wins
  • An MVP season for Carlos Correa
  • 220+ hits (including 15 homers), Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for Jose Altuve
  • The 30/30 club and Gold Glove for George Springer
  • AL Rookie of the Year for A.J. Reed
  • AL Cy Young and Gold Glove for Dallas Keuchel
  • AL Manager of the Year for A.J. Hinch
  • Keuchel, Collin McHugh, and Lance McCullers each finish with 20+ wins
  • The bullpen combines for a 2.75 ERA/1.05 WHIP/50+ saves
  • The Astros trade Tony Kemp and Jon Singleton for Bryce Harper
  • Astros hitters combine to hit 240+ homers with a 23% strikeout rate

Best-Case Mild Scenario

Obviously, some of the situations in the Wild section are unrealistic, but that’s the point of dreaming.

Here’s what I believe is the most realistic positive outcome for this season.

  • Astros win the AL West with 92 wins. They clobber their way to the World Series and finally win it in 7 games
  • Dallas Keuchel wins another Gold Glove and finishes the season with 20+ wins, a 2.52 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He is the MVP of the World Series
  • Carlos Correa comes second in MVP voting
  • Jose Altuve continues his relentless path to 3000+ hits, collecting 210+ throughout the season
  • A.J. Reed is promoted after Super 2
  • Colby Rasmus rediscovers the fountain of youth to the tune of .245/.320/.490
  • Tyler White provides average offensive production
  • Luis Valbuena rebounds slightly as a hitter to the triple slash of .240/.325/.430
  • Jake Marisnick figures some things out at the plate, ending his year with a slash of .255/.305/.390
  • The Astros trade Evan Gattis
  • Colin Moran impresses during his cup of coffee
  • Hinch wins AL Manager of the Year

Worst-Case Wild Scenario

No one ever likes to look at the darkest timeline, but here we go.

  • Astros end up last in the AL West to the tune of 65-97
  • Astros call up 6 prospects due to injury
  • The bullpen upgrades are an illusion. They blow 30 games combined
  • Dallas Keuchel is traded midseason
  • The Astros hitters negatively regress, hitting a combined .220/.288/.300.
  • Jeff Luhnow decides to jump ship and take over as GM for the Texas Rangers
  • I’m going to stop now because I’m about to cry

Worst-Case Mild Scenario

Alright, so hopefully things aren’t as bleak as the above. What does a more realistic worst-case scenario look like?

  • Astros end up 3rd in the AL West to the tune of 83-79
  • Dallas Keuchel loses two games at Minute Maid Park. He ends the year with a 3.10 ERA/1.25 WHIP
  • Jose Altuve fails to achieve 200+ hits
  • Jake Marisnick is used strictly as a defensive sub
  • George Springer continues to struggle with injuries, missing at least 30 games
  • Carlos Correa struggles in his first full professional season as pitchers adjust to his approach
  • Lance McCullers is injured periodically throughout the season, only throwing 120 total innings
  • Wandy Rodriguez is shoved into the rotation at the beginning of August due to injury
  • Carlos Gomez doesn’t adjust his swing, spends the final two months on the shelf
  • Jason Castro stinks at the plate, essentially repeats his 2015 performance
  • The bullpen is slightly improved from 2015
  • Tyler White provides slightly below average production at the plate

What are your best and worst case scenarios for this season? Share your thoughts in the comments!