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Let's talk about an Astros Hamels trade

Why not? Everybody else is.

By Chris Perry
Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Oh, 'tis the season, indeed!  That point in the season where we think we know who the good teams are and the bad teams are.  That season where a fan's fancy turns to ridiculous trade speculation.

And Astros fans are the worst.  THE WORST.

Clinically, Astros fans have for a decade been specimens in a grand deprivation experiment being performed on a populace by a totalitarian government.  And now, their light, food, desserts, cable TV, video games, soul mates, puppies, and fast cars have been returned to them.  Scientists are already composing drafts of reports detailing their irrational and somewhat manic response mechanisms.

The Astros' rotation is struggling.  Dallas Keuchel is leading the AL Cy Young race.  Collin McHugh is suffering from some bad luck.  Scott Feldman is hurt.  Lance McCullers is on an innings-pitched timer.  Roberto Hernandez...has allowed sixteen runs in his last sixteen innings.  Brett Oberholtzer has been hurt.  So has Brad Peacock.  AAA pitching is thin.

So naturally, the Astros should acquire Phillies' ace Cole Hamels.

See the logic is thus:  The Astros are in first place, but their starters are weak.  The Phillies are in last place and have an expensive ace.  Ergo, it should be easy to acquire him, because it's obvious, right?

Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

It's that word "easy" that is implied in every trade scenario put forth by Astros fans.  Easy.  Easy to acquire a 31-year-old pitcher who is 6th in the majors in WAR since 2011 and eighth in ERA.  The Phillies have to rebuild, right?  That means they need PROSPECTS.

Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

Let's explore this from the POV of the Astros:  They need a good pitcher to bolster their hot start, and GM Jeff Luhnow has said as much.  Set aside the $20m/year for 3 years that remains on Hamel's contract, because that can either be negotiated or swallowed, depending on owner Jim Crane's whim.  Lets even set aside the very real questions that Hamels, as he moves into his mid-30's, possibly is about to begin the decline phase of his career, performance-wise.  It is possible for the Astros to acquire Hamels.  But is it likely?

Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

Let's explore this from the POV of Astros fans, now.  What follows are real, actual trade scenarios put forth by fans on Twitter and blogs.  I omitted any suggestions from the astros.com and chron.com comment sections, in the interest of a hint of legitimacy.

  1. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive Chris Carter + Prospects. (The insinuation is that Carter is the cornerstone of the deal, and the "prospects" are of lesser floor/ceiling, simply to round out the deal.  Carter is currently hitting .202/.305/.393.  The Phillies don't have a DH, as they play in the National League.  They do however have a first baseman who is hitting .239/.280/.489 and is smack in the middle of a 5-year, $138 million contract.)
  2. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive Mark Appel, Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, and pick two of Max Stassi, Nolan Fontana, Colin Moran, and Teoscar Hernandez. (Ahh, yes.  The classic quantity-for-quality trade.  Forget that this never, ever, ever, ever, ever happens.  At least almost never.  When's the last player who was Top 3 at his position got traded for a collection of prospects who ranked near the back end of Baseball America's Top 100 list?  If you said Hunter Pence, you're wrong.  Hunter Pence was good.  He wasn't Cole Hamels good.  Not even close.  Oh, and Moran, Teoscar, Stassi, Fontana, and Appel have sucked this year.  OF COURSE the Phillies want them!)
  3. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive Lance McCullers, Phillips, Vincent Velasquez, Santana. (Well this one is a little more reasonable, but still not realistic.  McCullers would be the "piece" here, but to outsiders, Phillips, Velasquez, and Santana are still a far cry from what the industry would consider "top prospects".  Also...how does this solve things for the Astros?  McCullers is NOT Hamels.  But now the Astros are still down a pitcher and have traded perhaps their most MLB-ready chance at a mid-rotation pitcher in Velasquez as well.  Peter, you have been robbed by Paul.)
  4. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive a package centered around Preston Tucker...grudgingly. (So.  The Astros get one of the best pitchers of our era, under team control for several more years.  The Phillies get a guy who just reached the majors, who never cracked any top prospect lists, and has started hot.  Presumably, they get more prospects in this deal, of the Fontana/Teoscar variety.  Look everybody knows I'm president of the Tucker fan club.  But the Phillies are dealing Cole Freaking Hamels, and Tucker ain't no Ted Williams.)
  5. Astros receive Cole Hamels AND Ryan Howard.  Phillies receive Collin McHugh, Appel, and Carter.  And nothing else. (It's the Peter/Paul thing again, only worse.  McHugh dominated last year.  He's started slower this year, so TRADE HIM, AMIRITE?  Then there's selling low on Appel again.  And Carter, again, whom the Phillies should have absolutely no interest in, in return for Howard, who presumably they're getting rid of simply to shed salary.  This is Astros fan homerism at the worst.)
  6. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive Appel, Santana, Velasquez, Michael Feliz, Teoscar. (Rinse, repeat.)
  7. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive a package centered around Santana and Moran, plus maybe Josh Hader or Feliz. (Okay.  Santana was a Phillie before being traded to the Astros.  This trade is such a huge net loss for them it's hilarious.  They no longer have Hamels, Pence, Jared Cosart, or Jon Singleton. Instead, they have Santana back and Colin Moran, who was only a piece in the trade that sent Cosart to Miami.  Yay?  In fact, the Cosart deal is perhaps the best argument why a collection of 2nd-tier prospects won't be the return for Hamels.  Cosart yielded a guy who was a Top-5 pick, another ML-ready Top 100 prospect, a very intriguing young starting pitcher, and a compensation pick that is equivalent to Derek Fisher.  Which is actually more value than most of these proposals for Hamels.)
  8. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive a package centered around Appel. (...who has a 5.20 ERA.  At double-A.  In his second stint there.)
  9. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive a package centered around Stassi and Jake Marisnick. (I think this is my favorite.)
  10. Astros receive Cole Hamels.  Phillies receive Appel, Santana, and EITHER Velasquez or Feliz.
Meanwhile...Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

Here's the deal.  Early this season, Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was rebuffed by the Red Sox when he reportedly asked for center fielder Mookie Betts (now succeeding in the major leagues at age 22, after hitting .291/.368/.444 there LAST season) PLUS catcher Blake Swihart (now in the major leagues after being ranked #17 on BA's Top 100).

Just for funsies, I'll repeat that.  Amaro asked for Mookie Betts and Blake Swihart.  I'll put that into Astros terminology:  George Springer and Carlos Correa.

Amaro had to have known that the Sox would turn away, but that was his asking price nonetheless.  And for some reason, fans think he will accept a bagful of prospects who mostly aren't nearly major-league ready, and none of whom have either the pedigree or the proven success of Betts or Swihart.  And usually that trade suggestion is accompanied with, "If the Phillies absorb a bunch of Hamels' contract."  Seriously.

Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

Well, the Phillies reportedly ARE willing to absorb a bunch of Hamels' contract.  At least, now they are.  After being shot down trying to trade for Betts & Swihart...without absorbing any of Hamels' contract.  See the implication isn't that the Phillies are more in a hurry to deal Hamels and that's why they'll take on some money.  Rather, its a firm re-statement that the Phillies want, expect, and require the very top-est of top prospects in return for Hamels.  You won't give us top prospects for Hamels and his contract?  Fine, I'll meet you part way.  I'll eat some of that contract.  But YOU will still provide top prospects.

Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

The Phillies are probably looking at the Rays' James Shields trade a couple years ago.  With less that two years left on his contract (there are three on Hamels'), the Rays received BA #4 prospect Wil Myers, Top 100 and MLB-proven starter Jake Odorizzi (who is pitching like an ace...better than Shields or Hamels, actually), and former BA Top-20 prospect Mike Montgomery...plus a filler guy.  Considering A) Hamels is better now that Shields was then, B) has more team-control left on his deal, and C) precedent, why, oh why, would the Phillies ask for less than Correa, McCullers, and Appel, plus some filler?

Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

To sum up, while anything is possible in this crazy world of baseball, all this talk about the Astros acquiring Hamels for extraneous or struggling players is no more than a hallucinogenic exercise being performed by delusional fanboys that overrate their own players and other clubs' intelligence.

The Astros could very well acquire Cole Hamels.  But the cost will hurt.  It won't be any of the suggestions above.  It would include your favorite players.  It will include the prospects with your brightest hope.  It should include Correa.  But it won't.  And so the Astros won't acquire Cole Hamels.  So can we stop talking about it?

Besides, Cole Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause in his contract, and the Astros are probably on it.

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