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Last year, I created a list that compared draft-eligible players in four-year colleges against what I believe to be the skills that Houston Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow covets in his prospects.
In this, the second year of the list, things have gotten a little more sophisticated. Players are more heavily-weighted against their conference averages in areas like plate discipline, power, speed, command, control, and more. It bears mentioning that A) This list is not meant to identify the "best" players. Many of these are unsexy, high-floor players; B) Scouting reports don't play into this list. In fact, they play in even a little less than they did last year, when velocity was a factor for pitchers. This is purely based on age and results versus the player's level of competition.
From last year's write-up:
Remember, though, this is still largely a thought exercise. Despite the provocative title, I'm not saying that these are players that the Houston Astros will or even should draft. But if I worked for the front office, these are players to whom I would be paying extra-special attention.
Consider this list to be a piece of a giant puzzle. Players who rate very highly here, and who also have excellent scouting reports (I'm looking at you, Alex Bregman), should be rated overall more highly. Some players will not make this list because of injury, or lack of playing time, or any of a number of reasons. If I were to compile an overall draft list, I would start with this list and scout the players from there (in fact, the list began as an attempt to try and predict where Astros scouts might be deployed on any given weekend.)
Now, then. The list:
1. Nick Dini, 2B, Wagner
Height: 5'9" Weight: 180 lbs. High School: Monroe Township High School (Monroe Township, N.J.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: July 27, 1993 (21.86 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
When a player comes out of a mid-major conference, you want to see them absolutely dominate. Nick Dini did just that. More impressive than slashing .392/.489/.625 with 14 stolen bases and just one caught stealing is the fact that he struck out just seven times in 221 plate appearances. He walked more than four times that often, and while he doesn't have anywhere near the most power on this list, he does have a bit of pop, besting the conference ISO by over a hundred points, and he was a participant in the International Power Showcase at Chase Field as a prep prospect. The downside is that he's been moved from catcher to second base, and hasn't fared very well in his brief exposures to offseason ball - slashing just .195/.411/.268 in the Coastal Plain League over 82 at-bats in 2014 (the OBP is skewed by five HBPs).
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Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
2. Thomas Eshelman, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
Height: 6'3" Weight: 210 lbs. High School: Carlsbad High School (Carlsbad, Calif.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: June 20, 1994 (20.97 on draft day)
I don't think it's unfair to compare Eshelman to LSU's Aaron Nola, who dominated in college ball enough to go in the first round in 2014 despite some fairly underwhelming stuff. The biggest difference is that at 6'3", 210 lbs., Eshelman has a bit more size than Nola did. He also fared well in a relief role with the USA Collegiate National Team in 2014, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and one save, holding opposing batters to a .213 average, with just one extra-base hit. Eshelman won't overwhelm you with his stuff - a high-eighties fastball with a good changeup and curve - but his command is beyond comparison. With 118 strikeouts to just six walks over 114 innings, 2015 continued the trend he's shown through his entire college career.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
Height: 6'1" Weight: 190 lbs. High School: Marietta High School (Marietta, Ga.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: February 11, 1994 (21.32 on draft day)
A true shortstop with plus speed and good on-base skills doesn't come put of the college ranks in every draft class (remember Trea Turner?), but Swanson is exactly that. When you add in a significant power spike, you're looking at a player that's capable of moving very quickly through the minor leagues and into a leadoff position at the major league level while playing a premium defensive position. The one knock against Swanson for me is that while he does have good on-base skills, his walk and strikeout rates aren't as elite as they may look at first glance. The SEC is a conference full of very good hitters, and his walk rate is not significantly higher - nor his strikeout rate significantly lower - than the conference average. But it still all adds up really well, which is how he landed so high on the list.
4. Brendon Sanger, RF, Florida Atlantic
Height: 6'1" Weight: 180 lbs. High School: Fort Myers High School (Fort Myers, Fla.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth: September 11, 1993 (21.74 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
Sanger comes upon the nickname "Hit Dog" honestly. After setting a Fort Myers High School record for batting average, he went on to FAU, where he led the team in hitting for three straight seasons. He's also pretty adept at avoiding strikeouts and drawing walks - accumulating 28 of the former and 51 of the latter over 277 plate appearances in his junior year. He doesn't flash as much power as you'd like to see in a corner outfield prospect, though he's no slouch there, topping the conference-average ISO by over a hundred points.
5. D.J. Stewart, LF, Florida State
Height: 6'0" Weight: 230 lbs. High School: The Bolles School (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth: November 30, 1993 (21.52 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: 2012: 28th Round (877th overall), New York Yankees
The son of Reginald Stewart (13th-round pick by the Padres in 1991,) D.J. boasts several nice skills, not least of them being quite possibly the Luhnow-iest of them all: The ability to draw walks. In fact, in 2015, he drew 66 of them in 271 plate appearances. His 11.08% walk rate is the highest of any player on this list. He combines it with a good power profile, having hit thirteen home runs in his junior year. He's posted an OPS over 1.000 in each of his three years at Florida State, and his one stop in the Cape Cod League - 2013 - was a pretty resounding success, as well, as he slashed .270/.440/.443. I could see Stewart making a Kyle Schwarber-like leap up someone's board on draft day.
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Photo Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
6. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU
Height: 6'0" Weight: 186 lbs. High School: Albuquerque Academy (Albuquerque, N.M.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: March 30, 1994 (21.19 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: 2012: 9th round (901st overall), Boston Red Sox
Bregman has been getting buzz for a long time. So long, in fact, that to find himself "merely" in the discussion for the top ten picks in the draft feels like a let-down. Above-average speed, good line drive hitter, the ability to draw some walks (though not elite) and avoid strikeouts, and a solid defensive reputation make him easily one of the best college-level players in the draft. It's the stolen bases that really leap out at you with Bregman - he had 32 of them in his junior season at LSU - but it's the hit tool that's going to be his bread-and-butter.
7. Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois
Height: 6'1" Weight: 185 lbs. High School: Lemont High School (Lemont, Ill.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Date of Birth: April 19, 1994 (21.14 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
Another member of the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team, Jay has been nothing short of dominant as a late-inning reliever. In 60 innings as a junior at Illinois, he put together a 0.60 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and has struck out ten batters for every one he's walked. He's also only given up two home runs over 122 innings in his entire college career - with none of them coming in 2015.
8. Taylor Clarke, RHP, College of Charleston
Height: 6'4" Weight: 190 lbs. High School: Broad Run High School (Ashburn, Va.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: May 13, 1993 (22.07 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
After missing most of the 2013 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Clarke learned that Towson was closing its baseball program. He made plans to transfer to the College of Charleston, just in time to watch Towson's program get saved by Maryland governor Martin O'Malley, and he watched from the bench as the Tigers made a run to the NCAA tournament. In his first season back from injury at College of Charleston, he showed flashes of brilliance, being named a finalist for the Gregg Olson Breakout Award. In 2015, he put it all together, striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings and walking just 1.17 per nine. His command over his secondary pitches visibly improved through the 2014 season, and his fastball velocity ticked up toward the mid-nineties, making him an intriguing option on draft day.
9. Taylor Thurber, RHP, Appalachian State
Height: 5'10" Weight: 180 lbs. High School: Lake Norman High School (Mooresville, N.C.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: July 29, 1993 (21.86 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
Thurber brings a lot of skills to the table: He rarely walks anyone, he can swing between the starting rotation and the bullpen, and he controls batters well. The big issue is the fastball, which can hit the low nineties, but which is most effective in the 84-88 range. He's also short, clocking in at a generous 5'10" in the program. But he offers a four-pitch arsenal, throws strikes, and brings a bulldog mentality to the mound. After serving in the bullpen his entire career, he moved to the rotation after injuries decimated Appalachian State's staff, and he performed admirably.
10. Matt Dacey, 3B, Richmond
Height: 6'3" Weight: 204 lbs. High School: Don Bosco Prep (Wyckoff, N.J.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth: March 31, 1994 (21.19 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
After redshirting at the University of Michigan, Dacey transferred to Richmond, and quickly developed a reputation as one of the top power bats in the country. Dacey comes with a three true outcomes profile, striking out over 20% at the college level, but pairing it with a 14% walk rate and 17 home runs in 2015. If you're looking for a thumper and believe that you can cut down on the strikeouts, Dacey makes an intriguing draft option.
11. Alec Diamond, C, Belmont
Height: 5'10" Weight: 175 lbs. High School: Walker School (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth: May 25, 1993 (22.04 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
Diamond was Belmont's answer to losing Jamie Ritchie behind the dish, and he responded admirably at the plate. He's sort of a strange name for this list: Virtually no power (more than 100 points lower than conference average,) not a ton of speed (seven steals in ten attempts,) and a good-but-less-than-prodigious ability to draw walks. So how did he end up here? By never striking out. Diamond struck out in just 3% of his 267 plate appearances in 2015. And in a conference that strikes out more than 17% of the time, that's a pretty impressive ability to make contact.
12. Patrick Mazeika, C, Stetson
Height: 6'3" Weight: 220 lbs. High School: Salisbury School (Wibraham, Mass.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth: October 14, 1993 (21.65 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
At 6'3" tall and 220 pounds, Mazeika is far from a lock to stay behind the plate as a professional. But that size does help him in at least one area: In 2015, he was hit by seventeen pitches. That - combined with a walk rate just under 13%, helped him get on base a ton, and he hit for just enough power to put together a cool .924 OPS at Stetson. His on-base skills are enhanced by his ability to avoid strikeouts (6.27%).
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Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
13. Kyle Martin, 1B, South Carolina
Height: 6'1" Weight: 240 lbs. High School: Wade Hampton High School (Greenville, So. Car.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Date of Birth: November 13, 1992 (22.57 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: 2014: 20th round (599th overall), Los Angeles Angels
Senior first basemen aren't a huge draft priority for most teams, but if you're looking for an easier sign to free up money, you could do a lot worse than Martin. In the SEC, he combined a .350 average with a ridiculous .635 SLG, thanks in large part to his 14 home runs. What's maybe more impressive is the double-digit stolen bases to go along with it: 11 swipes in 12 attempts. He did all of this while drawing a fair amount of walks and cutting down on strikeouts - all on one of the toughest schedules of any team in the country.
14. Eric Cheray, 2B, Missouri State
Height: 6'3" Weight: 210 lbs. High School: Seaman High School (Topeka, Kan.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth: December 11, 1992 (22.49 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: 2014: 17th round (522nd overall), Oakland Athletics
If you're a fan of undersized second baseman (and what Astros fan isn't?), Eric Cheray isn't going to make you very happy. At 6'3", 210 pounds, he's a presence in the middle of the infield. After being drafted in the 17th round in 2014, Cheray opted to return to Missouri State. He was off to a great start before fracturing his left ankle on a double-play pivot early in the season. It's a shame, too, since he was hitting .436 with a walk rate over 20% before his injury.
15. Luke Gillingham, LHP, Navy
Height: 6'3" Weight: 200 lbs. High School: Coronado High School (Coronado, Calif.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Date of Birth:
Previously Drafted: N/A
Gillingham is a 6'3" lefty who struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings in 2015, with a WHIP of 0.70. He allowed just one home run in 83 innings, and threw three complete-game shutouts, landing him on the semifinalist list of the Golden Spikes Award. With a fastball that tops out at 88mph, Gillingham has had to rely on an impressive curveball/changeup combination to get the results he's gotten. Of course, Gillingham is at the Naval Academy, which makes a traditional trip to the ranks of professional baseball difficult impossible. But in a season where Mitch Harris made his major league debut, one can dream.
16. David Berg, RHP, UCLA
Height: 6'0" Weight: 194 lbs. High School: Bishop Amat High School (Covina, Calif.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: March 28, 1993 (22.20)
Previously Drafted: 2014: 17th round (516th overall), Texas Rangers
This is Berg's second appearance on the Very Luhnow list. I'm just going to copy what I wrote about him on last year's list.
When David Berg takes the mound in the ninth inning for the defending National Champion UCLA Bruins, the game's over. Why? Because the guy dominates. He combines a tricky side-arm motion with a fastball which travels just 81-83 MPH, but with heavy sink. He mixes in a big, sweeping breaking ball. And he's a grinder, which has led John Klima to write one of his least-cogent scouting reports to date:
Next, I also have an idea as to why this guy is so nasty. It has nothing to do with velocity. The reason why this guy is so nasty question actually has many answers outside of baseball itself, which is one reason why this guy has had to, and will have to, battle tooth and nail for everything he gets in this game. Less sophisticated observers will dismiss him.
But I will say this in public. You cannot put a price tag on an individual’s ability to battle for everything he gets in this game, especially this young. And I know there are people out there reading this who don’t know what I mean, because they haven’t had to fight for a single thing. But like I say, the radar gun is a crutch and it does not tell you everything nor can it teach you everything. I’ve seen fewer examples of just what I mean than Bergy over here.
I have no idea what he's talking about, but doesn't that stir you to... I don't know, do something with your life? Klima uses Berg to plug his own three books, his own "sophistication," his ability to make comps, and his own work ethic... all while playing keep-away with any actual baseball-related information. I'll end with this: My ranking system works against righties, and it works pretty hard against relievers. The fact that David Berg is still a top three despite being a full-time reliever and (as far as we know) a full-time righty is impressive.
17. Brian Mcafee, RHP, Cornell
Height: 6'2" Weight: 185 lbs. High School: Bothell High School (Bothell, Wash.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth:
Previously Drafted: N/A
After missing his junior season with a broken back, Mcafee came back with a vengeance. He walked fewer than a batter per inning -- in fact, he allowed fewer than a baserunner per inning, with a 0.88 WHIP. He didn't generate a ton of strikeouts, but for a guy who didn't even know where he was going to play until shortly before the season began, he had a nice bounceback performance in his first year back from injury.
18. Kevin Duchene, LHP, Illinois
Height: 6'2" Weight: 210 lbs. High School: Joliet Catholic Academy (Joliet, Ill.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Date of Birth: December 10, 1993 (21.49 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
After leading the Big 10 in ERA as a sophomore and continuing to show his development with a nice summer in the Cape Cod League, Duchene didn't miss a beat as Illinois' Friday night starter in 2015. With a fastball that hits the low nineties, a power curve that he can throw for strikes or as a show-me pitch, and a plus changeup, he's continued to have success primarily by throwing strikes - and lots of them - and with solid, repeatable mechanics.
19. Cole Bauml, CF, Northern Kentucky
Height: 6'3" Weight: 185 lbs. High School: Lake Lenore High School (Muenster, Saskatchewan)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth:
Previously Drafted: N/A
After two seasons at Trinidad State Junior College, the Canadian Bauml transferred to Northern Kentucky, where he made an immediate impact, slugging .567 while playing a slick center field. He improved across the board in 2015, slashing .350/.445/.663 with 14 stolen bases in in 14 attempts.
20. Landon Cray, CF, Seattle University
Height: 5'9" Weight: 170 lbs. High School: Chimacum High School (Chimacum, Wash.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Date of Birth:
Previously Drafted: N/A
The nephew of former Seattle Mariner Paul Sorrento, Cray takes a classic approach to making the list: He avoids strikeouts, he draws walks, he plays center field, he steals a few bases (ten in twelve attempts), and even hits for roughly average power.
21. Joey Falcone, DH, Columbia
Height: 6'5" Weight: 225 lbs. High School: Bolton High School (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Date of Birth:
Previously Drafted: N/A
How's this for a resume: The son of ten-year major league veteran lefty Pete Falcone, Joey joined the Marine Corps as a corpsman, and was deployed twice to Afghanistan. Then, he went to an Ivy League school, where he got a degree in economics with a concentration in mathematics. While doing that, the 6'5", 225-pound bruiser slashed .347/.429/.676 with eleven home runs. Of course, a 6'5" college DH-type may not scream "prospect" to you. But an ISO more than two hundred points above Ivy League average, while maintaining a strikeout rate less than two percent above conference average, is still impressive. And if he doesn't work out as a player, you've got a perfect front office candidate.
22. Kyle Nowlin, CF, Eastern Kentucky
Height: 6'0" Weight: 200 lbs. High School: William Henry Harrison High School (Harrison, Oh.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth:
Previously Drafted: N/A
Here's a quick tip on how to make this list: Play center field and slug .690. Yes, it's that easy. Why, just nineteen home runs and you too can be very Luhnow. Nowlin did just that, and without striking out (or walking, for that matter) an abhorrent amount. Both numbers were right around league average, in fact. He added eighteen stolen bases, as well.
23. Drew Ferguson, CF, Belmont
Height: 5'11" Weight: 170 lbs. High School: Knoxville Catholic High School (Knoxville, Tenn.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: August 3, 1992 (22.84 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
Speaking of center field sluggers, Ferguson slashed .395/.486/.682 with eleven home runs and twenty-six stolen bases in twenty-eight attempts. He walks at roughly the OVC average rate, but he avoids strikeouts well, with just 24 of them in 284 plate appearances. Ferguson is a senior, and provides a really nice skillset for a team looking for signability.
24. Chance Adams, RHP, Dallas Baptist
Height: 6'0" Weight: 205 lbs. High School: Chaparral High School (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Date of Birth: August 10, 1994 (20.84 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
Chance Adams has a few things going for him. He's young for his level, and yet performed very well against a really tough schedule. After spending his freshman and sophomore years at Yavapai Junior College where he transitioned from the bullpen into the rotation, he transferred to Dallas Baptist, working again entirely out of the bullpen. In 52 innings of work, he put up a 2.08 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, walking 2.08 per nine innings while striking out more than 12 batters per nine. That walk rate is higher than you'd like, but when a guy still merits a WHIP under one, it's not a bad tradeoff.
25. Bobby Poyner, LHP, Florida
Height: 6'0" Weight: 205 lbs. High School: Palm Beach Central High School (Wellington, Fla.)
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Date of Birth: December 1, 1992 (22.52 on draft day)
Previously Drafted: N/A
After going undrafted in 2014, Poyner spent his second-straight summer in the Cape Cod League, where he once again pitched very well. In fact, he improved across the board:
| Year | Team | League | IP | W | L | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2013 | Orleans Firebirds | Cape Cod League | 36.2 | 2 | 3 | 1.72 | 0.95 | 7.36 | 0.49 | 1.23 | 5.89 |
| 2014 | Florida | SEC | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 3.44 | 1.15 | 8.67 | 0.65 | 1.64 | 7.20 |
| 2014 | Orleans Firebirds | Cape Cod Leage | 25.2 | 3 | 0 | 3.16 | 1.01 | 8.42 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 6.66 |
| 2015 | Florida | SEC | 52.1 | 4 | 2 | 3.10 | 0.97 | 7.75 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 8.33 |
The knock against him has always been that he doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts, but he balances it out by limiting walks. He has a four-pitch arsenal, including a fastball that tops out in the low nineties, a changeup, a curve, and a slider.