This could be the least-informative article you've ever read. Or, more accurately, the one article that you intrinsically knew was true before it was even written. In fact, I don't need to write much more other than, "Jake Marisnick will not hit
You know this. I know this. Why do we need to talk about it?
Well, there's something to be learned by how he will regress and what could be
Let's start with the big picture stuff, like his batted ball profile.
Ditto with his absurdly high home run to fly ball rate.
That all plays right into Marisnick's very high
Are there any signs that Marisnick's breakout is real?
Why yes, thanks for asking.
Look at his plate discipline data. This year has seen
That implies he's swinging less at bad pitches and more at good pitches, right? Considering his swinging strike rate fell by nearly three percent from last year and he's seeing a ton of first-pitch strikes, that could be exactly what's going on.
Over at Grantland, Ben Lindberg talks about a pretty neat theory from old Baseball Prospectus smart guy Rob Arthur, who found a correlation between how pitchers attack players and whether they will break out.
The theory is that pitchers react to batters faster than public opinion might. Pitchers who stay away from batters could be a sign of a breakout. Lindberg has plenty of fancy graphics to back it up here.
It gives us one more place to see if Marisnick's "breakout" is real. Let's see how pitchers are handling him. Here's his zone map when facing right-handers.
Here's his zone map vs.
That's the opposite of how teams are pitching
This makes sense.
Naturally, pitchers will challenge him with fastballs. So far, he's just been able to hammer those pitches. He's gotten dramatically better at hitting heaters this year, or fouling them off and waiting for an offspeed pitch he can handle.
Eventually, we'll see pitchers adjust. They won't keep challenging him like this. How Marisnick adjusts to that adjustment will tell us more about his future offensive production than this first month did.
See? I told you that was a circuitous way