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Measurables
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 195 lbs.
Birthdate: 12/13/1993 (Age 21 on draft day)
Summary
Shorter hurlers, especially righthanders, are frequently typecast as relief pitchers- and many have projected Fulmer as as a closer in the past. However, with his dominance in the starter's role for Vandy, he has changed a lot of minds in 2015. Fulmer is the kind of pitcher you'd describe as "electric," with a rapid delivery, high velocity and a breaking ball that freezes hitters. Fulmer delivers the ball in a hurry and throws with effort, but he also has a lot of efficiency in his delivery. He has plus arm speed, and he uses it, along with his filled-out frame and lower body strength, to generate low-to-mid 90s velocity despite being sub-6-foot. Fulmer sits 93-95 with his fastball and can run it as high as 98 MPH, making it a no-doubt plus pitch. Looking at Fulmer mechanically, the effort level and moving parts give me some concern about his future command, which I see as just average, but I do not worry about his arm or shoulder being under too much stress. If he is forced to the pen, it would be due to command issues, not an inability to handle a starter's workload, in my opinion.
Fulmer pitches off of his fastball and carries his velocity late into outings. His best secondary pitch is a power curve in the mid-80s. The pitch dives down and away from righties with an almost whiffle-ball type movement, playing excellently off of his heater. It's another offering that projects as plus and could act as Fulmer's "out pitch" as a big leaguer. Fulmer does throw a changeup, and while it moves well, I'd like to see it have more velocity separation from his fastball, as it comes in in the higher 80s in most cases right now.
Myself, and the rest of the TCB draft team, are high on Fulmer and think he can outproduce industry consensus. He certainly isn't Greg Maddux with his location, but at his best he pounds the strike zone with aggression and has a dominating secondary to produce swings and misses. If a team gives Fulmer the leash he needs, and helps smooth out some of his mechanical concerns, he has the stuff to develop into a K machine that can help anchor a big league rotation.
MLB Projection
I see Fulmer as a dynamic #2/3 starter, who will look like an ace on some days and have short outings on others. Many make the easy comparison of Sonny Gray and it's somewhat legitimate, but I think that Fulmer is more similar to Carlos Martinez or Danny Salazar.
Projected Draft Round
Fulmer will be a first round pick. I think that a team in the top 15, more likely top 10, will fall in love with Fulmer and pull the trigger on him there.
Will he sign?
Fulmer has a lot more to lose than to gain by going back to school since he is not the type of pitcher who would ever contend to be a top 3 selection. He will sign.