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2015 MLB Draft Preview: Mock draft scenarios for the top five picks

Three different choices could change who Houston takes at the top of the 2015 MLB draft.

Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

A little over a month before the 2015 MLB June draft, we still don't have a clear sense of which player will go No. 1 overall. That leaves plenty of questions for Astros fans, who will see Houston pick at No. 2 and No. 5 overall this year.

In the past, we've argued over who the Astros might take, because every choice lay before us. At 1-1, we didn't need to worry about what other teams did.

That changes this year. In order to figure out who might fall to the Astros, we need to go through some mock drafts. Here are three different draft scenarios that show who the Astros could end up with this year.

The chalk

Right now, the top player in the 2015 draft is Lake Mary (FL) shortstop Brendan Rodgers. The 6-foot, 195-lb. high schooler has a combination of upside and present tools that should make the Diamondbacks swoon. He hasn't quite separated himself from the field, but with so many high-profile injuries, he's shot to the top of the list.

The D'Backs are a mystery, however. With a new general manager who does crazy things like put Yasmani Tomas at third base, anything's possible.

For this scenario, though, let's pretend like they do the reasonable thing and draft the Best Player Available.

1) Arizona picks Brendan Rodgers, SS

2) Houston picks Dansby Swanson, SS

3) Colorado selects Kyle Funkhouser, RHP

4) Texas selects Dillon Tate, RHP

5) Houston selects Kyle Tucker, OF

The Astros at No. 2 have plenty of possibilities. It also means they could have their top-rated prospect on the board. Without knowing their super-secret computer formulas, I have to think they will love Dansby Swanson from Vanderbilt.

In drafting both Tony Kemp and Conrad Gregor, the team showed they like the program. Swanson should also be able to stick at shortstop, which ups his value. He's got a great hit tool and a feel for the game, which they should love.

That leaves the Rockies with a similar decision to the one they faced when they picked behind Houston in 2013. Then, they snapped up Jon Gray at No. 3. Here they should go with a pitcher who features some sink to his delivery in Funkhouser.

The Rangers love toolsy high school bats. It just so happens there's a guy like that who also has nice bloodlines in Daz Cameron, the son of former big leaguer Mike Cameron. While Daz hasn't popped as much as it seemed he might a couple of years ago, he still has elite tools and plenty of upside.

Still, the Rangers could go a few different ways here. I wouldn't be surprised if they grabbed a college pitcher to supplement Yu Darvish in a couple of years, and Tate has plenty of upside in that electric arm.

The Astros could opt for a college pitcher, like Carson Fulmer of Vandy or Kyle Funkhouser of Louisville. They could also play for the upside of a bat like Cameron.

Yet, there's another high school name who's just as intriguing, who might balance out some of Swanson's deficits. Kyle Tucker, the younger brother of Astros outfielder Preston Tucker, has shot up draft boards this spring with a strong performance. He's only behind Rodgers in some minds because of his future position, and his bat should play nicely.

The curveball

As I said, we don't know what the new D'Backs brain trust will do. What if they go for an out-of-the-box candidate?

1) Arizona selects Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati
2) Houston selects Dillon Tate, RHP
3) Colorado selects Brendan Rodgers, SS
4) Texas selects Kyle Tucker, OF
5) Houston selects Dansby Swanson, SS

The D'Backs pick Happ, who had plenty of success during the regular season with the bat to make this interesting. He's had success on the Cape, hits for enough power to justify this spot and can play some second base. The D'Backs don't have a set player at that position in the future and could move Happ through the system quickly.

It also lays the board bare for Houston. They grab the only ace-level pitcher left in Tate, who has flashed plenty of stuff but possesses a "not great" delivery. I'd rather have Buehler or Fulmer here, even Funkhouser, but can see the Astros going with Tate over all of them.

The Rockies then grab Rodgers as an eventual replacement for Troy Tulowitzki. If that happens, the Rangers won't likely snap up Swanson because they've got a zillion shortstop prospects as it is. They go with Tucker, which would sting, leaving Swanson to fall to Houston here.

Tate and Swanson give Houston a good mix of floor and ceiling. Tate can be a front-line starter that they really lack in the system, while Swanson will anchor the middle of the infield, which is shallow at the lower levels of the system.

The safe pick

What if the Diamondbacks shock everyone and go with one of the safest players in the draft at the top? Let's see what that might do.

1) Arizona selects Dansby Swanson, SS
2) Houston selects Brendan Rodgers, SS
3) Colorado selects Dillon Tate, RHP
4) Texas selects Daz Cameron, OF
5) Houston selects Alex Bregman, 2B

Here, we see the Astros do the opposite of what they did in the previous scenario. When Rodgers falls to them at No. 2, they grab him quickly and add another young, high-upside player to the middle of their infield. This is similar to what the Twins did in getting Byron Buxton at No. 2 when the Astros drafted Correa.

The Astros then go with Bregman at No. 5 to give them a more college-refined player with a high probability of hitting the majors. He may also sign for less than the No. 5 slot, giving Houston more money to bring home Rodgers.

Of course, the Astros could also reach for one of the college arms here, and Fulmer would be mighty enticing at this point. But, my hunch is that they end up with either Swanson or Bregman with those two picks.