Week Three Draft Discussion: The Need for Beed…e

The discussion this week was a bit more concentrated which was the original thought of this series. It's not meant to bring up lots of stats that impressed over the weekend, that's what Anthony's College Roundup is for.

Brooks:

Tyler Beede is really turning heads. Keith Law released an article today (Monday) discussing how he's really working on locking up a top 5 draft pick. He's turning into the guy scouts have been thinking he could since he was in high school. The stuff is there and now he is showing the control/command his athleticism has predicted for years.

Question: Is there a chance Beede challenges Carlos Rodon?

Spencer:

I don't think there is any way that Beede ends up as a realistic contender for the top pick in this draft. Just as in the previous two years, I think that Beede, Hoffman, Kolek, Jackson or whoever else is at the top of the boards by years' end will talk to the Astros and speculation will fly, but I see Rodon as being in another class. I have said in the past that I think Rodon would be the #1 pitching prospect on most lists if he were in an MLB organization today, and that hasn't changed.

I really like Beede. He's long, lean and as athletic as it gets. He has a broad arsenal which I am drawn too- the balanced nature of Mark Appel's pitches was a big reason I preferred him to Jonathan Gray last year. The difference between Beede and the Appels of the world is that he has yet to show the feel for pitching or command that Appel had as a senior. He certainly has made strides in the department this year, but Rodon is still worlds ahead.

I think you can draw a parallel to the QB debate atop the NFL draft this year. Teddy Bridgewater is already an NFL QB between the ears, but he doesn't have the physical tools of Bortles. In terms of the MLB draft, Carlos Rodon would be like Bridgewater's brain in Bortles's body. Beede might have a 70 FB and plus CU and CH, but he's still learning to be a pitcher and his command wobbles. Plus, Rodon has two 70 pitches right now. He doesn't flash like Beede does, he is the real deal right now. Rodon is as close to a sure thing as they come. I cannot see Beede showing enough progression in one year to convince me that he is as well, let alone a safer bet than Rodon.

Beede very well might turn into the RG3 to Rodon's Andrew Luck, but I don't see him leapfrogging Carlos.

Tim:

In terms of the Astros making the actual pick I do think that Beede could possibly challenge Rodon for the top pick. This is a very deep draft and the Astros may try to do something similar like they did in 2012 when they took Carlos Correa, which then allowed them to get Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz, two guys who were considered first round talents. Most thought Mark Appel in 2012 and it ended up being Correa. Last year, Jonathan Gray and Kris Bryant were the sexy picks and they went with Appel. Rodon is probably still the favorite, but I wouldn't consider anyone within the top 5 as completely out of consideration for the top pick.

Brooks:

I want to agree with you, Tim. But there are significant differences between Correa vs. Appel and Appel vs. Gray and Bryant.

Correa had the huge upside and was accompanied with limited exposure that left many doubting his ceiling and floor. Appel, Bryant, and Gray all had similar ceilings but each had their differences among prospectors in who they thought had the better ceiling and floors.

Right now, Beede doesn't have that same ceiling as Rodon. Beede looks more like a #2 while Rodon looks like a #1, and that's pretty much consensus. It's too soon to close the book, obviously, but he's not challenging quite yet. Rodon is on another tier, but Beede is on the upper echelon of that next tier.

Anthony:

If the Astros go a different direction than Rodon with the 1-1 pick, I really don't think it'll be another college pitcher. Nola and Beede are terrific, but neither is anywhere near Rodon in terms of ceiling.

It's really hard to envision any college player filling that role. As amazing as I think Mike Papi is as a hitter, he just doesn't come close to Rodon's potential. I could see them doing it with a prep hitter - Gatewood, Jackson, etc. - but not with a different college player. It just doesn't really make any sense. You've got a legitimate left-handed ace who's excelled on every stage, including international. You don't pass that up for Beede or Nola.

Jordan:

In most people's opinions Rodon is the best prospect in the class, myself included. He continues to generate a significant amount of hype, and rightfully so. "Best lefty in 10 years" has been thrown around, and the consensus is he'd be a Top 5 prospect on any MLB list. However; it's still very early, and I know the Astros have been doing their due diligence. I fully expect 3-4 other players to be in contention all the way down to the wire. Beede is making a good case for the top 5, but I still prefer Hoffman, Turner and Kolek over him.

Brooks:

Next topic. Anthony tweeted out that so far Rodon is at 14.81 pitches per inning. Not bad at all by major league standards. It's enough to get through 7 innings. But, considering that he's facing college hitters that are historically less patient and a strike zone that is more lenient due to college umpires, is there a potential concern?

Or is this being nitpicky?

Anthony:

The P/IP doesn't seem ideal on paper, but I don't really have a standard by which to judge. What's good? What's bad? What's average? I don't know. Without context, it's hard to read too much into it.

My gut says it's high, but when you consider his strikeout rate, it doesn't seem that egregious. Better sequencing should help. Better catching should help. Wooden bats should help. Donnie Alexander should help. My feeling is that if that's the worst thing we can find, and if his mechanics are solid (out our my purview), then that's not so bad.

Tim:

The #3 South Carolina Gamecocks gave a swift kick to the teeth of their interstate rivals #11 Clemson Tigers by sweeping them. Which prompted this site to be created: http://firejackleggett.blogspot.com/

Friday: Clemson up 6-1 on Carolina heading into the bottom of the fifth. The Gamecocks loaded the bases and then Grayson Greiner hit a home run. Carolina wins 9-6.

Saturday: Carolina beat up on Clemson 10-2. Five of those runs came in the ninth prompting this response from the Tigers: https://vine.co/v/MK2Hjx5g1bY

Sunday: Leading 3-1 heading into the ninth, Clemson got the first out and then the wheels fell off. Carolina would score four runs in the ninth and then close out the bottom half of the inning with nary a peep from the Clemson offense to sweep the series.

Connor Bright-RF and Kyle Martin-1B are two juniors off to a really good start for the Gamecocks. They're both later round picks that are on the rise.

Needless to say, I had a very enjoyable weekend.

Anthony:

UCLA's got a really nice slate this week. Tomorrow is an exhibition game against Waseda University (a Japanese college team.) They follow it up with the Dodgertown Classic, playing Pepperdine, Houston, and USC, and then they follow it up with a mid-week game on Tuesday against UC Irvine. I'll definitely be there to catch Houston, since it'll be my only opportunity to see the Cougs.