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Analysis of an analysis of the 2014 MLB Draft

Keith Law is one of the top MLB analysis guys out there. That doesn't stop me from trying to show him up. Kind of.


As you may know, I came out with a list of the top 10 way back in September. For the sake of comparison, I'll be seeing how the lists match up.

Keith Law's Ranking (My Ranking)

1(1): Carlos Rodon, LHP, N.C. State: Yeah, this isn't even a question. With his mid-to-high nineties fastball, incredible slider, and the rest of his arsenal-plus the production to match it-Rodon is the unquestioned numero uno in the draft right now.

2(2): Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina: Another consensus pick. His stock shot up so much during Cape Cod league, you might think it was just a fluke...but when you see his fastball and curve, and that tall, athletic frame, you start to believe.

3(4): Alex Jackson, C,  Rancho Bernardo HS (CA): This guy is easily the top high-school prospect out there. He's got the full five-tool package, and as a catcher, it's definitely noteworthy. His power is off the charts. However, the reason he's not #2 or even competing for the #1 spot is because he might move to a corner outfield position, which limits his value.

4(8): Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis HS (CA): Jacob Gatewood is that athletic freak you hear so much about. He's got great raw power, that if tapped, could grow into something great, and plays a premium position, which just adds to his value. However, there are concerns: He may outgrow shortstop, and he needs to be a more consistent hitter. But when you're drawing comps to Tulo, you know you're good.

5(unranked): Braxton Davidson, 1B, T.C. Roberson HS (NC): Davidson's hitting potential may be even higher than Gatewood's or Jackson's. He can crush the ball everywhere on the field, and his muscular frame and sweet swing can make it seem effortless. But his defense isn't the best, and he's pretty limited as a baserunner. Still, the hit tool is very enticing.

6(unranked): Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway HS (SC): Holmes jumped onto the scene with an outstanding showing at PG National. He's got a consistent mid-nineties fastball, a plus breaking ball, and a serviceable change. His frame isn't that big, however, and he has durability questions.

7(unranked): Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (CA): Aiken's got an outstanding delivery, to go with a plus-curveball and low-nineties fastball. He's got a tall, athletic frame, which could definitely lead to sustained success in the pros.

8(6): Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (TX): Kolek's 6'6", 250 frame really stands out when you watch him pitch. He can get to the high-nineties consistently with his fastball, and has touched 100. His curve is a very nice complement. However, he doesn't really seem to have much more potential upside, and might not develop as a pitcher.

9(unranked): Justus Sheffield, LHP, Tullahoma HS (TN): Sheffield has the look of a LOOGY, short in stature but with a very good arsenal of pitches, but could definitely become something more, with a surprisingly athletic delivery and great maturity.

10(unranked): Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford: Okay, this guy I'm a fan of. He's a big guy at 6'5", 240, but the ball just explodes out of his hand. He reaches high-nineties on his fastball and he's got a nice slider complement. He might not play at a big school, but this guy definitely deserves attention.

15(3): Trea Turner, SS, N.C. State: I really have no idea why Keith Law doesn't like this guy as much as I do. The guy's a monster on the basepaths, and is developing well as a hitter. He's got really nice plate coverage. Plus, he plays very good defense at a premium position. Keith Law, you say you don't like his offensive upside? Well, I do. So there.

18(5): Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt: Again, I don't like Keith's ranking. While Beede may be a little wild at times, he's got a very good arsenal, his mid-nineties fastball standing out, and a tall, athletic build. And he keeps the ball on the ground. That is a key quality. I guess Keith Law just doesn't agree.

22(10): Dylan Cease, RHP, Milton HS (GA): For some reason, Keith doesn't like Cease's stuff besides his mid-nineties 4-seamer. I'm definitely a fan of his 12/6 and change, which probably led to the gaps between our rankings. Although, I do agree with Keith on one thing: that violent delivery of his could lead to injury in his near future.

29(7): Michael Gettys, CF/RHP, Gainesville HS (GA): I really, really hope that #29 is where the MLB offices view Gettys as well, because I'm in love with the guy's potential and really, really want him as the comp pick. While he still needs to hit more consistently, he's a five-tool player, his speed and arm standing out. And he's also a pretty nice pitcher, with a fastball that rests between 92-95 and a low-eighties slider.

Unranked(9): Luke Weaver, RHP, Florida St.: The guy's got a small frame, not necessarily what you want from a righty, but his fastball still touches mid-nineties consistently. His change and slider could both be plus pitches as well, but you've still got durability questions. In my opinion, the reward far outweighs the risk. I guess Keith Law just doesn't see it that way.

So, any thoughts? Comments?

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