Adam Frazier isn't the most exciting prospect – he doesn't have a high Major League ceiling – and he's unanimously unranked on every expert's Draft Board. But he's the exactly the type of player Jeff Luhnow has had the propensity to draft over the years – a highly-productive college player, who gets overlooked on draft night, because he doesn't have "standout" tools or high-level upside.
The junior shortstop for the Mississippi State Bulldogs stands 5'11", 170 pounds. He possesses a compact, quick swing from the left side of the plate, which produces modest gap-to-gap power. Although he's yet to homer in his collegiate career (you read that right), he still has a decent amount of pop. In 27 games this season, he's slugging .542, which is no small feat, considering his lack of home runs.
Frazier's biggest assest is his ability to get on base. He finished with an OBP of .482 in 2012, along with a .462 this season. Between this year and last year combined, he's drawn 61 walks, to only 36 strikeouts.
On defense, Frazier is solid, yet unspectacular. His lack of arm strength almost guarantees a move to second base in the future. He's a slightly above average runner, who can overachieve on the basepaths with smart base-running.
At the time of this profile, he's batting .402/.462/.542 on the season, with seven doubles, four triples and six steals (caught once). His numbers are slightly inflated because Mississippi State plays in what is considered a hitter's park, but he also gets bonus points for playing in a tough Conference.
UPDATE (5/29): Frazier struggled since the original profile was written. He finished with a trip slash of .352/.399/.461. He's still an interesting prospect as polished future utility player, but that's all he is.
Major League Floor
An underwhelming bench player, who struggles to stick on any one roster.
UPDATE (5/29): Nothing has changed in this regard.
Major League Ceiling
I think Jamey Carroll is a good comparison for Frazier – a utility player who you can plug into your lineup and trust he's not going to hurt you. Another decent comparison – for the nostalgic Astros fans out there – is Eric Bruntlett.
UPDATE (5/29): Not much has changed in this regard either – he may not even be as good as Carroll or Bruntlett.
Projected Draft Round
Rankings: Keith Law (UR), Baseball America (UR), MLB.com (UR), Minor League Ball (UR), Draft Insider (UR). Mock Drafts: Draft Insider (N/A), Minor League Ball (N/A). -- Frazier could go anywhere from rounds 5-15, depending on how much/little teams want to spend on that specific draft slot.
UPDATE (5/29): Baseball America has him ranked 142 in their top 250, which would put him in the fourth or fifth round, at best. I don't think he goes any lower than the first 10 rounds, despite what I previously wrote.
Will He Sign?
As long as he's drafted he's drafted within the first 10 rounds.
UPDATE (5/29): Yes he will.