High school pitchers are always raw pitchers in just about every way. However, Kyle Serrano is about about refined as you'll find with a high school pitcher. He still has a long way to go, but in comparison to other high schoolers, he's polished. That is all due to him growing up around baseball and good college coaching. Why? Because his dad is Dave Serrano, the head coach at University of Tennessee and formerly of Cal State Fullerton.
Serrano is only six foot and 185 pounds, so he stands on the small end and thus has grown into his body more than other prospects. He could get a little bigger but he will always be on the small end and will have to work to make sure he gets the most out of his frame. That's where the good coaching has come in as he uses his whole body to generate his low 90's velocity.
His arm action isn't the safest action, as it gets "whippy" as he comes out of his windup and into his delivery. His arm is internally rotated in the first half of his windup and I'd like to see it a little more externally rotated for injury risk. Although, that may come as a sacrifice to his velocity as that internal rotation allows for more momentum into more external rotation for forearm lag.
The good part is that he has good late-leg drive that allows for him to explode to the plate in his delivery. He then adds good hip-shoulder separation that generates good rotational force and his arm becomes a fast moving lever to deliver the ball. There's arm effort, but he uses his body more than a lot of big armed pitching prospects.
He controls and commands his pitches well for his age. The mechanics don't allow for much improvement in this area, but it's currently advanced for his age group despite projecting to be just average.
His fastball projects to be an above-average pitch despite just average velocity in the 90-92 range with maybe an extra tick or two. He throws an average slider in the low-80's and can sometimes dip lower. It has good bite and depth. His third pitch is his changeup which projects to be an average pitch with good fade in the high 70's and low-80's.
Reliever. He has pretty average stuff, but at least has a chance for three of them. If they end up as below average pitches, he already has a good understanding of pitching and could have some success as a middle reliever.
Middle rotation starter. His best shot is that all three of his pitches turn into average or slightly above average pitches. It will allow for him to get outs against left and right handed hitters. But, the pitches aren't plus pitches and lead to groundouts at their finest and not high strikeout rates to put him into the upper tier of pitchers.
Projected Draft Round
Kyle Serrano is rated in the 30's and 40's depending on the source so he's projected in the late first round and early second round areas.
College Commitment: University of Tennessee
Will he sign?
The lure of playing for his father at the University of Tennessee has to be an attractive option for a kid. Coaches change regularly, but college baseball doesn't have the same rate of movement as other sports and all indications are that Dave Serrano will there for awhile. So, there may be some risk with him to sign, however it's not documented as such at this point.
Farragut High School in Tennessee has had its fair share of talent come through its ranks, from 2004 first-rounder Kyle Waldrop to 2011 sixth-rounder Nick Delmonico. Now it's Serrano's turn.
Serrano has the chance to have three Major League average or better offerings from a strong and athletic pitcher's frame. His fastball will sit in the 91-92 mph range, with good movement, and he can reach back for a little extra. His sharp slider has the chance to be a strikeout pitch in the future, and he keeps his changeup down in the zone with good arm speed and deception.
Serrano has good mound presence and has a good idea of what he's doing on the mound. That's not a huge surprise considering that if he doesn't go pro, he's headed to the University of Tennessee to play for his father, Dave Serrano.