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At the risk of sounding like a complete jerk if the Astros select a pitcher with the first overall pick tonight, I felt the urge to explain my reasoning for extolling the virtues of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correia. All conversations about Floor, Ceiling, Time to Majors, Signability aside, my major worry is that the success rate for pitchers drafted in the Top 10 is very poor.
I looked at all of the Top 10 picks from the 2000 to 2008 drafts. I began at 2000 because scouting and saber methods have changed and going back much further would be looking at different types of data. I omitted post-2008 classes to give those draftees time to establish themselves. Here is what I found:
| Pitcher Stats | |
| Pitchers Drafted in Top 10 | 49 |
| Injured or Bust | 37 |
| % Injured or Bust | 76% |
| Stars | 8 |
| % Stars | 16% |
| Hitter Stats | |
| Hitters Drafted in Top 10 | 40 |
| Injured or Bust | 13 |
| % Injured or Bust | 33% |
| Stars | 17 |
| % Stars | 43% |
Given that, the thought of investing a huge signing bonus and using Pick 1-1 on a pitcher makes me uncomfortable. The likelihood of drafting a star hitter with that pick is 27% higher than drafting a star pitcher, and the bust likelihood is a huge 43% less. Unless one winds up with a generational talent like Strasburg and Prior (both seriously injured early in their careers), the risk is too high.
List of all players after the jump. Please discuss.
Pitchers selected in Top 10 (2000-2008)
|
Name |
Pick | Year | Bust/Injured? | Star? |
| Brian Matusz | 4 | 2008 | Y | |
| David Price | 1 | 2007 | Y | |
| Ross Detweiler | 6 | 2007 | Y | |
| Jarrod Parker | 9 | 2007 | Y | |
| Madison Bumgarner | 10 | 2007 | Y | |
| Aaron Crow | 9 | 2008 | Y | |
| Luke Hochevar | 1 | 2006 | Y | |
| Greg Reynolds | 2 | 2006 | Y | |
| Brad Lincoln | 4 | 2006 | ||
| Brandon Morrow | 5 | 2006 | Y | |
| Andrew Miller | 6 | 2006 | Y | |
| Clayton Kershaw | 7 | 2006 | Y | |
| Tim Lincecum | 10 | 2006 | Y | |
| Ricky Romero | 6 | 2005 | Y | |
| Wade Townsend | 8 | 2005 | Y | |
| Mike Pelfrey | 9 | 2005 | Y | |
| Justin Verlander | 2 | 2004 | Y | |
| Phil Humber | 3 | 2004 | Y | |
| Jeff Niemann | 4 | 2004 | Y | |
| Mark Rogers | 5 | 2004 | Y | |
| Jeremy Sowers | 6 | 2004 | Y | |
| Homer Bailey | 7 | 2004 | Y | |
| Wade Townsend | 8 | 2004 | Y | |
| Thomas Diamond | 10 | 2004 | Y | |
| Kyle Sleeth | 3 | 2003 | Y | |
| Tim Stauffer | 4 | 2003 | Y | |
| Paul Maholm | 8 | 2003 | Y | |
| John Danks | 9 | 2003 | Y | |
| Bryan Bullington | 1 | 2002 | Y | |
| Christopher Gruler | 3 | 2002 | Y | |
| Adam Lowewen | 4 | 2002 | Y | |
| Clint Everts | 5 | 2002 | Y | |
| Zack Greinke | 6 | 2002 | Y | |
| Jeff Francis | 9 | 2002 | ||
| Mark Prior | 2 | 2001 | Y | |
| Dewon Brazelton | 3 | 2001 | Y | |
| Gavin Floyd | 4 | 2001 | ||
| Josh Karp | 6 | 2001 | Y | |
| Chris Smith | 7 | 2001 | Y | |
| John Van Benschoten | 8 | 2001 | Y | |
| Colt Griffin | 9 | 2001 | Y | |
| Adam Johnson | 2 | 2000 | Y | |
| Mike Stodolka | 4 | 2000 | Y | |
| Justin Wayne | 5 | 2000 | Y | |
| Matthew Harrington | 7 | 2000 | Y | |
| Matthew Wheatland | 8 | 2000 | Y | |
| Mark Phillips | 9 | 2000 | Y | |
| Joe Torres | 10 | 2000 | Y |
Hitters Selected in the Top 10 (2000-2008)
| Name | Pick | Year | Bust/Injured? | Star? |
| Tim Beckham | 1 | 2008 | Y | |
| Pedro Alvarez | 2 | 2008 | ||
| Eric Hosmer | 3 | 2008 | Y | |
| Buster Posey | 5 | 2008 | Y | |
| Kyle Skipworth | 6 | 2008 | Y | |
| Yonder Alonso | 7 | 2008 | ||
| Gordan Beckham | 8 | 2008 | ||
| Jason Castro | 10 | 2008 | ||
| Mike Moustakas | 2 | 2007 | ||
| Josh Vitters | 3 | 2007 | Y | |
| Matt Wieters | 5 | 2007 | Y | |
| Matt LaPorta | 7 | 2007 | ||
| Evan Longoria | 3 | 2006 | Y | |
| Drew Stubbs | 8 | 2006 | Y | |
| Billy Rowell | 9 | 2006 | Y | |
| Justin Upton | 1 | 2005 | Y | |
| Alex Gordon | 2 | 2005 | Y | |
| Jeff Clement | 3 | 2005 | Y | |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 4 | 2005 | Y | |
| Ryan Braun | 5 | 2005 | Y | |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 7 | 2005 | Y | |
| Cameron Maybin | 10 | 2005 | ||
| Matt Bush | 1 | 2004 | Y | |
| Chris Nelson | 9 | 2004 | Y | |
| Delmon Young | 1 | 2003 | ||
| Rickie Weeks | 2 | 2003 | Y | |
| Chris Lubanski | 5 | 2003 | Y | |
| Nick Markakis | 6 | 2003 | Y | |
| Ian Stewart | 10 | 2003 | ||
| B.J. Upton | 2 | 2002 | Y | |
| Prince Fielder | 7 | 2002 | Y | |
| Scott Moore | 8 | 2002 | Y | |
| Drew Meyer | 10 | 2002 | Y | |
| Joe Mauer | 1 | 2001 | Y | |
| Mark Teixeira | 5 | 2001 | Y | |
| Chris Burke | 10 | 2000 | Y | |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 1 | 2000 | Y | |
| Lou Montanez | 3 | 2000 | Y | |
| Rocco Baldelli | 6 | 2000 | Y |