I try to be unbiased as I can in these profiles, but I'll get the fact out that I'm not quite as high on him as many of you. Does that stem from me being an aggie at heart? Possibly, and that probably plays in a factor as why many of you are higher on him since you are longhorns. But, to be honest, I don't care where these guys go to school. I'll despise a guy while he's there, but once he's in the Houston system, I couldn't care less. I didn't go to A&M, so I'm not that hardcore.
There's little doubt that Jungmann is one of the top pitchers in a very deep class. He's a great pitcher. With a guy like him, it's not a question of if he'll get to the majors, but when and in what role. Jungmann could quite possibly be one of the first five players from this draft to reach the majors because he is that advanced. He throws quality strikes consistently to both sides of the plate with all of his pitches which shows just how polished he is and his strongest asset, his control.
When talking about pitchers, every body wants to hear about pure stuff. We always start with the fastball and that is a low 90's fasball with good movement that he does command. I don't see much more room for improvement in his velocity although, several see a few more ticks are possible. He throws a two-plane curveball which he relies on for strikeouts because of it's hard break and it's his second pitch. His changeup is where he'll likely need to improve the most as it doesn't have a lot of separation from his fastball, but movement makes it a potentially above average pitch. Some scouts mention a slider but it doesn't seem to be much a promising pitch.
Jungmann has some of the more uncommon mechanics in the class as he doesn't have good plant foot placement and a low arm slot. Although, they don't scream injury risk so it's not a huge worry. He doesn't use his legs as much as he could which is typically a pet-peeve of mine and he could raise his arm slot to get a better downward plane on his fastball. Being that he's been sucessful with his mechanics and they aren't necessarily injury prone, I doubt they'll be altered.
His floor probably stands as a long reliever if his mechanics get altered and is unable to find a groove. I doubt that happens though, and with his current mechanics could easily be a back of the rotation guy if his changeup doesn't develop and a fourth pitch never reveals itself.
This where most people disagree. This is where I might get some heat. I stand on the pessimistic view that he projects as a #3 starter. Although, a very small minority say ace upside and the primary group says #2. Those projections are splitting hairs really and a more simple way of saying is middle of the rotation upside. Most of his pitches are average to slightly above average for the most part and that is where people say he doesn't have huge upside.
Will the Astros pick him? If so, where?
Jungmann is a legitimate possibility at No. 11 and that spot only. He has zero chance of making it to the second so if the Astros want him it will have to be in the first, and that's if he's still on the board. He makes sense for the Astros as he's a Texas kid and many fans are also Texas fans. It would be a great story for sure and would be similar to the Pence relationship that is currently in Houston. Although, the Astros haven't shown a huge tendency for taking local products early just because they are local.
Where is he project to go right now?
Keith Law has him at No. 12 to the Brewers
Deep Leagues has him at No. 4 to the Orioles
Jonathan Mayo has him at No. 11 to the Astros
Perfect Game has him at No. 13 to the Mets
Baseball America has him at No. 11 to the Astros
John Sickels has him at No. 11 to the Astros
Bibliography (Scouting reports and video)
After the jump.
Jungmann is one of several three-year performers among college pitchers in this year's draft, and he does it while looking like he isn't even breaking a sweat. Jungmann can sit 91-93 but go back for 94-95 whenever he wants it, and he pairs it with a hammer curveball at 75-78 with two-plane break.
He's a strike-thrower who commands the ball to both sides of the plate with his fastball and breaking ball. That precise command is part of why he rarely needs to use his hard, mid-80s changeup.
The word to describe Jungmann is "easy". The command, the velocity, the production all comes across as effortless. On the rare occasion where Jungmann runs into trouble, he is quick to shake it off and get back to business. He has also matured as a pitcher, showing an advanced approach and keeping his pitch counts relatively low while working deep into games on a regular basis. Jungmann hasn't received the fanfare of some of the other top arms in this draft, but his drafting organization is getting an advanced talent with the potential for three plus pitches and a long track record of success against some of the best collegiate talent around. He profiles as a front-end starter with a high floor.
His fastball has been around 91-97 mph, even touching 98 mph, and sits comfortably in the 93-95 mph. His fastball has plus movement as well. His curve, with a hard, tight 11-to-5 break, is also a plus pitch, as is his changeup. While his command is average -- he occasionally gets too much of the middle of the plate -- he's got outstanding control, throwing strikes and not hurting himself with walks. He'll have to learn to pitch off the plate more, but that shouldn't be an issue.