Summary
I wish I knew more about Dufek. I know his college numbers were very solid and that he took a step forward this season. His stuff seems fringy, with a fastball right around the high 80's and low 90's. He also features a slider and I'm guessing has at least one other pitch (though I don't know what it is).
He's a big kid from Omaha, so he's pitched close to home since high school. He's got a big frame at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, which may be why he got drafted this highly. Not sure if he's got any more projection left in his stuff, but if he adds a change (or refines one he already has), there's a chance he'd stick as a starter in the pros.
Not that college stats translate well to the pros, but Dufek had a 2.3 BB/9 rate this season with a 10.2 K/9 rate. He actually walked just one more batter (29) than runs allowed (28) this season and gave up 19 extra-base hits and three home runs in 393 at-bats.
Oh, and two of his favorite movies are Happy Gilmore and Forgetting Sarah Marshall, so I like him immediately.
Floor
As a college senior who had some very good numbers this season, it seems like the best part of Dufek is his floor, which should be pretty high. He's going to be able to slot into the system pretty nicely as either a starter or a bullpen arm and should have a reasonable amount of success. I'm thinking his floor will be a little like Jake Buchanan, which means he might be ticketed for Lancaster next season.
Ceiling
Here's the downside. I can't tell for sure, having seen absolutely no video of him, how Dufek projects. Reading a little about his stuff, though, I wonder if he's better suited for the bullpen. Much like another college senior signee that the Astros drafted in recent years, Dufek could turn into David Berner. Pitching out of the bullpen may boost his fastball up to around 92-93 and if he can still locate his slider well, he'd be pretty effective late in games. I'm sure the Astros will try him as a starter first, but his ceiling as a reliever might be higher.
Will the Astros sign him?
Since he's a senior, it's a pretty good bet that he'll sign.
Bibliography (Scouting Reports and video)
Below the jump
Jonas Dufek won two games and MVP honors at the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, then improved to 12-1, 2.08 by beating Georgia with a 10-strikeout complete game in Creighton's NCAA regional opener. The 6-foot-5, 210-pound righthander's stuff and command improved this season. He boosted his fastball from 87-89 mph a year ago to 89-91, tightened his slider and did a better job of locating both pitches. He has a loose arm and a sound delivery.