With the trade deadline past, the Astros have added three prospects to the minor league system via trade, in addition to the two new players contributing at the major league level (Brett Wallace and J.A. Happ). I thought that might make this a good time to run an overview of the top prospects in the farm system, to help familiarize anyone who doesn't follow it as closely as me or Subber10 with the potential Astros of the future.
I don't want to get too in-depth with the short season teams, because it's notoriously difficult to evaluate prospects in the small sample sizes inherent in those leagues. However, I will point out a few of the early round draft picks who are likely to see time in full season ball next year, plus perhaps a few interesting international signees.
I have assigned to each prospect a letter grade. All grades are subjective, based upon my personal impressions from what I've seen of them (if anything), the scouting reports I have read, and/or their statistical performance to this point. All grades are also relative to every other prospect in baseball, not just fellow Astros prospects; you'll notice that a lot of the best letter grades here are B-. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Very few prospects in baseball are deserving of a B+ or higher letter grade, and many of these prospects have the upside to raise their grades over the next year. So keep that in mind as you read this list.
Catcher
With Jason Castro promoted to the majors, the only notable catcher prospects in the farm system are in short season ball, but there we are stacked. I won't get into all of the catcher prospects we have at the lowest levels of the minor league system, but will instead highlight the two early draft picks who are performing well in the Gulf Coast League and the New York - Penn League.
Tri-City (A-)
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Ben Heath (21, grade C). There was some thought prior to the draft that Heath's swing might cause him to strike out more often in pro ball, and that has turned out to be the case. Nonetheless, his patient approach has allowed him to draw walks and get on base at a solid rate, and he does appear to have some pop in his bat. There are questions about his defense which he will need to answer as he advances up the levels, but he could easily have the bat to carry the position if he polishes his game behind the dish.
GCL Astros
- Roberto Pena (18, grade C). Thought to be an all-glove, no-bat future backup catcher, Pena's contact skills have impressed in a limited sample size in the Gulf Coast league. His seven strikeouts in 62 plate appearances suggest better bat-handling abilities than expected, and the possibility to sustain his empty (little power, few walks) .305 batting average.
First Base
Like catcher, first base is fairly thin, hoped to be locked down by a young former top prospect at the major league level, the newly-acquired Brett Wallace. Full season ball does have a little depth, however, and keep in mind that many position players are moved to first base from other positions later in their careers.
Corpus Christi (AA)
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Koby Clemens (23, grade B-). With big-time power and good patience, Koby's biggest problem remains his high strikeout rate. Since Wallace may well have first base locked down for years to come, another position change may be in the offing for Clemens, perhaps to a corner outfield position. Alternatively, he might emerge as a bat-off-the-bench at the major league level in the next couple of years.
Lexington (A)
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Kody Hinze (22, grade C). After a hot start to his season in which he hit twelve homers in April and May, Hinze cooled off and hasn't hit for for power since. His greatest strength remains his patience, as he draws walks at an good rate, but he takes too many strikeouts and will need to hit for power to have a shot at the major leagues at his position. Since he's on the old side for low A, he should be considered a fringy prospect at best.
Second Base
Our first overall draft pick this year, Delino DeShields Jr., was drafted as a second baseman. Middle infield was also an area of focus for the organization in trade talks at the deadline, and as a result, second base has become one of the deepest positions in the Astros minor league system. Entering into the season, this was not the case, as there appeared to be no really promising prospects at the position in the farm system.
Corpus Christi (AA)
- Albert Cartwright (22, grade C+). Cartwright was hitting very well at Lancaster, but it's a ballpark notorious for inflating offensive numbers. Still, he more than earned his promotion to Corpus Christi, and if he can hit well there for the rest of the season, he could be a grade B- prospect by the end of the year. Cartwright has some speed and a little pop in his bat, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts as he advances through the system.
Lancaster (A+)
- Jose Altuve (20, grade B-). With plus-plus speed, above-average power, and great contact skills, Altuve would be considered a dynamic top prospect if he were three inches taller. Unfortunately, he's five-foot-five, and that carries a certain stigma; many wouldn't even grade him as high as I have done. Like Cartwright, he just earned a promotion to hitter-friendly Lancaster. He will need to keep hitting and running to play his way up to the majors, but as of right now, he's my personal favorite second base prospect in the Astros system.
Lexington (A)
- Jimmy Paredes (21, grade C). Acquired in the Lance Berkman trade, Paredes has some serious tools--and some serious problems utilizing them skillfully. He could hit for average and power down the line while stealing plenty of bases, but his plate approach and pitch recognition are bad enough to damage all areas of his offensive game. He needs to strike out less, draw more walks, and make sure to swing at pitches he can drive. Paredes will either explode in the next couple years to top prospect status, or he will bust entirely.
Unsigned
- Delino DeShields (18, grade B-). The team's first overall pick in this year's draft. DeShields has the tools to become what Jose Altuve already appears to be--a player with great speed, solid power, and contact skills. The difference between the two is that DeShields is three inches taller. He's also unproven, with no professional experience under his belt. I expect the Astros to sign him soon, but because of how long he has waited to sign, he may not start next year in full season ball.
Third Base
Perhaps the thinnest position in the entire system, the only third base prospect of note is one of this year's early draft picks, Michael Kvasnicka. It's possible one of the shortstop or second base prospects could slide over to third if it comes to that, but none of them profile as middle of the order power hitters. There are a few other third base prospects on the radar, like Jonathan Meyer at Lexington, but nobody who has shown enough to get excited about. Adding another hard-hitting corner infield prospect in the draft or via trade would be a great boon to the organization. In the meantime, Chris Johnson will try to hold down the position at the big league level and prove that he is the .300 hitter with power he has appeared to be in his rookie season.
Tri-City (A-)
- Michael Kvasnicka (21, grade C+). I believe in Kvasnicka's plate approach--he has almost as many walks as strikeouts this year, right in line with his college performance--it's just his power potential I'm concerned about. He should be a high-OBP hitter as he advances through the system, but he'll need to prove he has enough power to play third base at the major league level. In any case, he should advance quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him begin next season at Lancaster.
Shortstop
One of the weaker parts of the system prior to the trade deadline, the shortstop position got a much-needed boost with the addition of Jonathan Villar in the Roy Oswalt trade. He'll fight it out with top 2009 pick Jiovanni Mier over the next few years for the starting shortstop job, and the hope is that at least one above average player will emerge from the duel. The Gulf Coast League Astros also have a couple of interesting international signees to discuss. The upper levels of the farm system are thin; Wladimir Sutil at Round Rock stands out for his glove, but has no bat to speak of, and with all of the infielders added to the big league team recently, his chances of making it to the majors seem to have faded.
Lancaster (A+)
- Jonathan Villar (19, grade B-). With game-changing speed, a great glove and a plus arm, Villar profiles as a plus defensive player down the line if he can eliminate some of the mistakes he's made throughout his professional career. His speed also plays well on offense, allowing him to hit for respectable average despite striking out too often. He had a solid walk rate in short season ball, but it has dropped this year, and it will need to come back up for his OBP to reach the level it needs to be at for him to be the leadoff hitter he profiles as. Villar also has a little more power than you'd expect, and I will be interested to see how he does in the hitter-friendly environment at Lancaster.
Lexington (A)
- Jiovanni Mier (19, grade B-). Almost the polar opposite of Villar, Mier is a very skills-oriented shortstop, who plays plus defense not because of his tools but because of his baseball instincts. His footspeed is merely average, but his range plays up because of an excellent first step and good reads on the ball. On offense, it's a similar story; Mier draws plenty of walks and keeps the strikeouts down to a reasonable level. His overall production, however, has left something to be desired this season, as he hasn't hit for average or power as was expected based upon his results in rookie ball last year. Some scouts feel he will grow into both, but his stock has fallen this season, and he needs to rebound strongly next year to prove that he's still a top prospect.
GCL Astros
- Chan Moon (19, grade C). Moon makes this list because he was one of the two highest-profile signings the Astros have made out of Asia. The sample size is insufficient to tell us much about his abilities, and I haven't been able to find any scouting reports, but according to reports about the signing, he has good speed and contact skills. His position is a question mark; he's listed as a shortstop, but he might be more suited to another infield position down the road. He'll be a name to watch over the next few years.
- Jose Fernandez (17, grade C). The Astros' youngest prospect in the states, that Fernandez has made his way to pro ball in the U.S. as a 17-year old is impressive. He hasn't performed particularly well in the Gulf Coast league, but he's worth watching for his youth alone. According to Zachary Levine, the Astros feel he will stick at shortstop and mature into a 10-12 home run hitter down the road, which would make him a valuable asset if he manages to hit for average as well.
Corner Outfield
One of the deeper positions in our farm system, corner outfield has quantity, but lacks the kind of prospects evaluators feel confident will be middle of the order hitters. Since it takes a premium bat to play the position at the major league level, this makes the depth deceptive; most of the prospects in full season ball are much more likely to be bench players than they are to start at the major league level. Still, there's always a chance, and perhaps the depth will result in a pleasant surprise somewhere down the line. At the lowest levels, Telvin Nash and Ariel Ovando are promising additions with the upside to become the kind of power hitter you need to be to hold down a corner outfield spot in the majors, but they are a very long way from being ready for that role. I predict that the lack of impact hitters will be the team's biggest problem over the next three or four years, unless Hunter Pence suddenly morphs into the superstar his tools suggest he could be.
Round Rock (AAA)
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Collin DeLome (24, grade C). He has enough speed to be a good defensive left fielder, and he has some pop in his bat, but DeLome strikes out far too much and doesn't walk enough. At age 24, he still has a chance, but not much of one. He isn't likely to make the team as a bench outfielder, let alone a starting left fielder. Then again, I said similar things about Chris Johnson last year, and look where that got me.
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Brian Bogusevic (26, grade C+). Converting mid-career from pitcher to hitter is hard enough without being rocketed up to the upper levels of the farm system with little time to adapt to the role, but Bogusevic has held his own and is even starting to excel in the second half of this year. At age 26, his time is running out, but the good news is that he may find his way onto the team out of spring training next season as a bench outfielder. He has solid-average power and the ability to hit for average, and his patience has been improving as the year has gone on, increasing his on-base percentage with it. He also has enough speed to play well defensively, and his conversion from pitcher would suggest that his arm would be a plus as well, although there have been questions about his low number of outfield assists. I still feel "Bogey" could be a starter, but more of an average, defensively-oriented one than the kind of impact bat we need.
Corpus Christi (AA)
- J.D. Martinez (22, grade B-). After tearing up the low A South Atlantic League as a 22-year old, hitting for both average and power, Martinez was promoted directly to Class AA Corpus Christi, where his bat has so far disappointed. The sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions, though, and I still feel he will hit after he has adjusted to the higher level of competition. How much? That's the question. He has work to do on defense, but his tools are reportedly good enough to play solid defense in left field if he can improve his routes.
- Jonathan Gaston (23, grade C). Gaston is an object lesson in why it's important to take all Lancaster power numbers with a large grain of salt. After an unbelievable season in the California League, Gaston came down to earth this year at Corpus Christi, improving his contact skills but regressing in every other area of his game. He's a good athlete with a cannon arm, and would play as a plus defensive right fielder, but his bat is questionable at this point. On the plus side, he's been hitting very well since the All-Star Break, and it's possible he has turned a corner. Next season at Round Rock will be the litmus test for Gaston, and should demonstrate whether he's a future starter or just a potential bench bat.
Greeneville (Rk)
- Telvin Nash (19, grade C). After a poor 2009 season in the Gulf Coast League, 19-year old Nash is tearing the cover off the ball at rookie level Greeneville this year, looking much more like the power-hitting slugger he was drafted as. He's drawing more walks and striking out less, but it's the pop which will advance him up the levels through the system. Defensively, he has a good arm, but his large frame doesn't lend itself to great mobility, which will likely limit him to left field down the road.
Unassigned
- Ariel Ovando (16, grade B-). Having been given the largest amateur signing bonus in franchise history, expectations are high for 16-year old Ovando, who doesn't yet have a single professional game under his belt. He has been compared to some great hitters, and the Astros believe he will hit for plus power and average. Beyond that, his athleticism and plus arm suggest he could be a good defensive rightfielder. If I had to pick the one player in the Astros system with the highest chance of becoming a star hitter, it would be Ovando. That doesn't make him the best prospect in the system, though, because he's only a teenager, and while there is a plausible scenario where he could become that kind of player, he's also raw and a very long way from being major league ready. There are many players in the farm system with a higher chance of making it to the majors at all, even if they have a lesser chance of becoming elite players.
Center Field
At first glance, you'll probably think this position is a little thin. However, one of the organization's best prospects, Jay Austin, is one of the better center field prospects in the game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him slip into the back end of the top 100 lists of more tools-oriented publications at the end of the year. It's also important to keep in mind that with as many speedy players as we have in the system, a conversion to center field would be possible with many other prospects should Austin fail to pan out. Many scouts, for instance, saw Delino DeShields as a center fielder prior to the draft, but the Astros see him as a second baseman.
Round Rock (AAA)
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Jack Shuck (23, grade C+). Shuck is one of those guys coaches and scouts rave about playing the game "the right way". In other words, he plays hard and he plays smart. He's a slap hitter with good contact skills and above average speed, but only a little power. His good patience does give him a solid on-base percentage, but without much power in his bat or true basestealing speed, he would struggle to stay above replacement level in left field. If he can play adequate defense in center field, however, he has a shot to start, but probably not while Michael Bourn is roaming the area in front of Tal's Hill.
Lancaster (A+)
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Jay Austin (19, grade B). The most impressive thing about Austin's performance so far is his age relative to his league. Looking at his stats, you might think "Pshaw, he's Michael Bourn with less patience". Then you realize that at Austin's age--19--Bourn wasn't even in pro ball yet, let alone playing in class A advanced against pitchers three or four years his senior. Jay Austin does have the kind of toolset to be a Bourn-type player or better. His plus-plus speed has allowed him to steal 45 bases so far this season, and gives him the ability to play excellent defense in center field. He has more power than Bourn, too, and could reach double digits in homers when he matures more physically. He's raw, drawing too few walks and striking out a little too often, but you would expect that from a player his age already facing advanced pitching. If he can improve his plate discipline as he gets older, Austin could be a special player, similar to Tampa Bay's Desmond Jennings, widely considered one of the top prospects in the game.
Starting Pitcher
Two of the finest additions in this year's draft class were starting pitchers, Mike Foltynewicz and Vincent Velasquez. They both have the upside to rocket up the prospect rankings in the next year, depending on their performance in full season ball, with their upside and their swing-and-miss stuff. Full season ball has plenty of safer bets with less upside, including top prospect Jordan Lyles, who appears very likely to be at least a middle rotation starter at the big league level.
Corpus Christi (AA)
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Jordan Lyles (19, grade A-). The organization's top prospect--for now--Lyles is a divisive pitcher among prospect evaluators. Some would grade him as low as a solid grade B, while others, like myself, feel he can be a no. 2 starter at the big league level. His stuff isn't spectacular, with a fastball which sits in the low 90s and a plus changeup, but his pitchability and command are both huge pluses, allowing him to pitch way above his tools. His performance has been excellent, especially when you factor in that he is one of the youngest players in AA ball this season.
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Douglas Arguello (25, grade C). Arguello is an older prospect, a finesse lefty having a nice season at Corpus Christi. I'm fascinated by his excellent groundball rate coupled with his solid strikeout to walk ratio the past couple of seasons, and he looks like a decent bet to be a back of the rotation starter at the big league level, if given a shot.
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Dallas Keuchel (22, grade B-). As a younger prospect, Keuchel gains points over Arguello, even though he profiles similarly as a groundball-inducing finesse lefty. His high 80s sinker doesn't blow hitters away, but his combination of pitchability, command, and solid secondary stuff allows him to miss some bats anyway. He looks to be a no. 4 starter in the majors, but you never know.
Lancaster (A+)
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Ross Seaton (20, grade C). Seaton is a frustrating prospect to follow on a game-by-game basis. For every step he takes forward, he seems to take two steps backward. Most of the time he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like given his fastball touching the mid-90s, but every now and then, he'll turn in a real gem of a game. He's still young enough to have a chance, and it's hard to judge him too harshly pitching in the hitters' paradise that is Lancaster, but the results so far are not good.
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Kyle Greenwalt (21, grade C). Much like Ross Seaton, Greenwalt has been busy getting his brains bashed in at Lancaster. Unlike Seaton, he has kept the ball on the ground, while posting a similar strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was a solid performer in the low A Sally league last season, so I want to see how he performs outside of Lancaster; he still has a chance to become a back of the rotation inningseater at the big league level, similar to Keuchel.
Lexington (A)
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Tanner Bushue (19, grade B-). At the onset of the season, it was hoped that Bushue would have a Lyles-like rise to top prospect status after impressing in the Gulf Coast League in 2009. That hope has dwindled, but Bushue has still had a solid year, coupling an above average strikeout rate with a roughly average walk rate. His curveball is reportedly very advanced for his age, and is his secondary pitch of choice. His fastball, on the other hand, sits in the high 80s, and he'll need to gain a couple of ticks to become the middle rotation starter he projects as. Fortunately, he has plenty of room on his frame to add strength and gain velocity over time.
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Jose Cisnero (21, grade C+). It's hard to find much information on Cisnero, so all I have to go by are his stats, which tell us that 21-year old Cisnero likes to miss bats. His career minor league strikeout rate is almost ten batters per nine innings. He'll need to work on reducing his walk rate, as he gives out too many free passes, but the strikeout rate suggests he has good stuff and a high ceiling.
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Luis Cruz (19, grade C). Cruz started the year as a reliever, but soon transitioned to a starting role, where he has excelled. He couples an above average strikeout rate with a low walk rate, but his track record isn't as exciting as Cisnero's and he hasn't missed quite as many bats. Still, he'll be another sleeper to keep an eye on next year.
Tri-City (A-)
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Carlos Quevedo (20, grade C). Like the other two international signees mentioned previously, it's hard to find a whole lot of information on Quevedo, but his Cliff Lee-like season this year stands out, and his track record is solid. In 49 innings this season, he has only handed out three walks. He misses a few bats, too, with a roughly average strikeout rate.
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Robert Doran (21, grade C). One of the team's early draft picks this season. Doran's ceiling is probably as a no. 4-5 starter or middle reliever due to average stuff, but his good strikeout to walk ratio at Tri-City does stand out. He was thought to be a good candidate to get lots of groundballs prior to the draft, but it's hard to draw firm conclusions from his decent but unspectacular 1.47 groundout/airout ratio this season.
Greeneville (Rk)
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Mike Foltynewicz (18, grade B). Immediately upon being signed, "Folty" became the highest ceiling starting pitcher in the Astros' farm system. The tall righthander has the potential for three above average to plus pitches, and he projects to get groundballs and strike out batters, a potent combination. As expected, he's struggled a little bit with walks this year, but his clean mechanics suggest that he will be able to correct that problem given time and wind up with good command. It's easy to envision a scenario where Foltynewicz becomes a no. 2 starter, and with his upside, ace potential isn't out of the question.
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Vincent Velasquez (18, grade C+). A risk/reward gamble in the second round of this year's draft which is so far paying off, Velasquez was thought to be a shortstop until recently, when he impressed scouts with workouts and exhibition games as a pitcher. He's a projectable righthander with a low 90s fastball and the potential for two plus secondary pitches. Right now, he appears to have no. 2-3 starter upside, but if he gains a couple of ticks on his fastball, he could have even better potential than that.
Relief Pitcher
There are a lot of relief pitchers in any minor league system. The Astros are no exception. I can't cover all of the good ones, but I'll try to highlight the best of the ones at Round Rock and Corpus Christi, who are likely to contribute to the major league team in the next year or two. Pitchers like David Berner at Lancaster and Wander Alvino at Lexington are definitely grade C prospects, but relievers are a high-quantity, volatile asset, and I don't want to take the time to cover them until they advance to the higher levels. That said, relief pitching is a moderate strength of the Astros' minor league system, with a number of potential closers in the upper levels of the farm.
Round Rock (AAA)
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Mark Melancon (25, grade C+). Acquired in the Lance Berkman trade, Melancon was once thought to be the logical successor to Mariano Rivera. He has a plus fastball, and coming out of college it was reported that he had a plus power curve as well, but Baseball America recently said it has regressed to merely "fringe-average", so it's hard to know for certain where his secondary stuff currently stands. I've also seen reports that he has a good changeup, so he might still have closer potential even if his curve has become more of a show-me pitch and he cannot regain it. His rise in walk rate this season is the biggest area of concern.
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Daniel Meszaros (24, grade C+). I've heard rumors that Meszaros has thrown as hard as 99mph, but haven't seen a concrete source to support that. It would be easy to believe, since he's had a dominant strikeout rate throughout his three-season minor league career, and this season at AA was no different. He recently earned a promotion to AAA, where his performance in seven appearances has been less than stellar, with too many walks and too few strikeouts. If he can improve his command enough, it sounds like he could have closer potential in the future.
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Fernando Abad (24, grade C+). Lefty Abad has done his fair share of bouncing around this year. He started the season at Corpus Christi as a starting pitcher, then was injured and out of action for over a month. When he returned, he went back to being a relief pitcher, which earned him a callup directly to the majors. He pitched one scoreless appearance and was promptly sent back to AAA when Jeff Fulchino came off the disabled list. Abad's stuff won't blow hitters away, but it isn't bad; his fastball sits in the low 90s, and he mixes in a solid breaking ball with a good changeup and excellent command. He should be able to contribute as a good middle reliever able to get out both left and righthanded batters, and may even have the potential to be a long reliever or swingman with the big league club.
Corpus Christi (AA)
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Henry Villar (23, grade C). Having recently transitioned to a starting role, Villar may belong on the other list, but given his performance as a starter, I still look at him as a reliever in the long run. Out of the bullpen, his strikeout-to-walk numbers are fantastic; he has excellent command, a solid fastball, and a good mix of secondary stuff, and uses them all to miss plenty of bats without walking many hitters.
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Matt Nevarez (23, grade C). Nevarez was acquired last season from the Rangers in the Pudge Rodriguez trade, and he immediately became one of the Astros' top relief prospects. Unfortunately, his command, always an issue, has fallen off a cliff this year. He has a great fastball, so if he can ever figure out where it's going to go when he releases it, he could have closer potential.
- Chia-Jen Lo (24, grade C). The other of the Astros' high-profile Asian signees, Lo profiles similarly to Nevarez in that he has a great fastball and very little command over his pitches. Both of them have closer stuff, but will they ever put it all together?
Honorable Mentions (all grade C)
Decided to go ahead and edit in this section, since there have been comments about players missed. If you see a guy below you think should have been mentioned above, he was probably just off the list. The list below was assembled rapidly and still doesn't include all of the Astros' prospects, of course, so if I missed your favorite player, I apologize. Let me know and I'd be happy to drop him into the appropriate section.
Round Rock (AAA)
Wladimir Sutil, SS (25), Drew Locke, OF (27)
Corpus Christi (AA)
T.J. Steele, OF (23), Arcenio Leon, RHP (24)
Lancaster (A+)
David Flores, 3B (23), Federico Hernandez, C (22), Robert Donovan, RHP (22), Jose Trinidad, RHP (22), David Duncan, LHP (24)
Lexington (A)
Rene Garcia, C (20), Jacob Goebbert, OF (22), Zachary Grimmett, RHP (20), Wander Alvino, RHP (23), Kirk Clark, RHP (21), Brad Dydalewicz, RHP (20), Jonathan Meyer, 3B (19)
Tri-City (A-)
Daniel Adamson, OF (22), Tyler Burnett, 3B (21), Thomas Shirley, LHP (21), Jake Buchanan, RHP (20)
Greeneville (Rk)
Chris Wallace, C (22), Marcus Nidiffer, 1B (23), Ruben Alaniz, RHP (19)
GCL Astros
Jose Perdomo, RHP (18), Evan Grills, RHP (18)
DSL Astros
Fredwin Campusano, 3B (18), Leonardo Alayon, RHP (18), Edgar Ferreira, LHP (17), Jose Montero, RHP (17), Michael Feliz, RHP (17)
Signed but unassigned
Jean Carlos Batista, SS (17)
Picked in draft, but unsigned
Austin Wates, 2B/OF (21), Adam Plutko (18), JaCoby Jones (18)