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Astros Postseason Odds: A month later

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The last time I did this (on month ago, today), the Astros were hot.  Like hot with two t's hot.  They had just marched into the All-Star break an even .500 and were right on the tails of the Cardinals and Brewers.  One month later, even after their second half opening sweep of the Cardinals, the Astros have fallen apart at the seams (terrible pun intended).  Injuries, injuries, and more injuries have been hampering this team just as much as bad starting pitching and management have.

Instead of being tightly in contention—as they were one month ago—the Astros find themselves here:


NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 64 52 .551 0 Won 1
Chicago 58 54 .517 4 Lost 4
Houston 56 58 .491 7 Won 1
Milwaukee 55 58 .486 7.5 Lost 3
Cincinnati 49 64 .433 13.5 Lost 1
Pittsburgh 46 67 .407 16.5 Lost 1

(updated 8.13.2009 at 11:20 AM CDT)


Seven games back of the Central leading Cardinals, with the Cubs still to be leapt over and the recently shook-up Brewers only a half game back.  This is not a great place to be.  However, if I recall correctly, HLP and I decided that if the Astros could just be 3 games out by the end of August, life would be good.  That's not totally infeasible, but also just our subjective conclusion.

Let's see what the numbers have to say:

Model Odds
BPro Unadjusted 1.73045%
BPro Schedule Adjusted 2.44840%
BPro PECOTA ADJUSTED 0.58991%
Cool Standings 2.2%
SCS Weighted
0.6%
SCS 50/50 5.9%

Here's the difference a month makes:

Model Delta
BPro Unadjusted -3.52684%
BPro Schedule Adjusted -7.98437%
BPro PECOTA ADJUSTED -5.48278%
Cool Standings -8.8%
SCS Weighted
-3.8%
SCS 50/50 -11.8%

 

It's apparent that the Astros have not helped their cause too much in the last month, but this time a year ago, the Astros were also facing worse odds than they are now.  Is all hope lost? No.  Do the Astros need to get their proverbial s#%t together? Yes.  Hopefully Vitamin Puma will give us the necessary boost.  If the Astros do pull it to within three games by August's end, I'll check back in on this subject to let you know if HLP's and mine subjective mark holds up to objectivity.