On this, the day in which no baseball will be played, it's time to finally dig through some of the numbers to see what we might be able to divine about the Astros chances in the second half.
In the interest of front page space...I am making you jump.
We'll start with some of the more obvious stats:
- BA: .267 (3rd in NL)
- OBP: .330 (8th in NL)
- SLG: .405 (8th in NL)
- OPS: .735 (8th in NL)
- ISO: .138 (9th in NL)
- wOBA: .321 (7th in NL)
- BABIP: .301 (9th in NL)
- WAR: 8.2 (tied for 8th in NL)
- K%: 16.8% (2nd in NL)
- BB%: 8.3% (14th in NL)
- K:BB: .54 (5th in NL)
- LD%: 18.1% (16th in NL)
- GB%: 48.5% (16th in NL)
- FB%: 33.4% (16th in NL)
- IFFB%: 9.3% (7th in NL)
- HR/FB: 8.6% (tied for 12th in NL)
- IFH%: 6.8% (5th in NL)
- O-Swing%: 27.1% (2nd or 15th in NL depending on your perspective) [ % of swings at balls outside the strike zone ]
- O-Contact%: 64.3% (3rd or 14th in NL)
- Someone needs to sit down with Hunter Pence and make him watch a lot of video so that he can figure out some kind of situational awareness on the base paths.
- Carlos Lee needs to drop a few lbs., or start hitting for more power so that his lack of mobility stops dragging the team down. He's on pace to costs us an entire win just because he can't run the base paths. $18.5 million sure doesn't buy what it used to...
- Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada need to either get faster, smarter, or just start playing it conservative on the base paths.
- Anybody not named Michael Bourn should not be allowed to steal a base unless it's a high-rewards situation and the probabilities (based on pitcher/catcher) are favorable. This is something Coop has just about full control over and can certainly be fixed.
- Chasing balls out of the zone has the potential really suppress our offense in the second half.
- Keeping Moehler, Ortiz, and Hampton on a very tight leash before they get replaced by a young gun at AAA makes sense.
- Edwin Maysonet should be given due consideration as a possible defensive platoon for Miguel Tejada on the days that Mike Hampton (52.1 GB%) and Russ Ortiz (47 GB%) start given their dependence on converting GB outs. This serves to the duel purpose of increasing the efficacy of Hampton and Ortiz's skill set and also would provide Miguel Tejada with plenty of rest to keep his bat sharp and maybe even improve his range at SS. Seriously, Jason Michales does not need to be on this team.
- One of either Brian Moehler or Russ Ortiz is due to blow up in the second half, but my money is one Moehler--a fly ball pitcher who strikes very few people out, at age 37, scares the bejesus out of me.
- A whole new attitude on the base paths to permeate the club house.