clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Pythagorean Adjusted NL Central Standings

At the season's one-third point, let's look at what the Central's standings would look like if all that mattered were the runs scored and runs allowed:

Team Actual Record RS RA Pythag Record
Milwaukee 33-24 268 246 31-26
St. Louis 31-26 249 240 30-27
Chicago 28-26 237 229 28-26
Cincinnati 29-27 247 241 29-27
Pittsburgh 26-30 247 247 28-28
Houston 25-30 230 259 24-31


Ours is a division that is pretty even..until you get to that team in last. From first to fifth, there is only a 2.5 game difference in Pythagorean record. The Pirates are underachieving, due in part to a 3-6 record in games decided by one run.  St. Louis, Milwaukee and Houston are overachieving, but only slightly. Each of those teams has won one more game than they've lost in those one run contests. Defensively, the Brewers are the best in baseball in terms of UZR/150, so perhaps that has helped them outproduce their pythag record.