clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Astros playoff odds: Past the quarter pole

It's no secret, the Astros have been pretty, pretty dismal as of late.  Having dropped 8 of their last ten and previous seven straight, in my delerious misery I began to wonder if it was time for another ridiculously earlier check in on what the various models have to say about the Astros playoff odds.

We last did this on May 11, so there have been seventeen days and fourteen more games for the Astros to improve or diminish their odds at sniffing legitimate October baseball in 2009.  What I found was depressing to say the least.

Here are the odds as they stand, which doesn't account for yesterday's action:

Model Odds
BPro Unadjusted 2.25087%
BPro Schedule Adjusted 2.21333%
Cool Standings 1.4%
SCS Weighted
SCS 50/50 5.5%

These are not good odds, and what I think is even more impressive, is the following chart, which is the change in each model during those fourteen games:

Model Delta
BPro Unadjusted -4.61218%
BPro Schedule Adjusted 2.21333%
Cool Standings -6.3%
SCS Weighted
SCS 50/50 -1.3%

For those of you who are perplexed by the fact that the schedule adjusted BPro report is positive, it's because the Astros had a 0% chance on May 11th.  This skid hasn't wrecked the season, and obviously the 18-27 start hasn't either, but something got to give because the odds really plummeted fast in fourteen games.  While health and underperformance have hampered the Astros thus far, the deeper the hole we keep digging, the harder it will be for that second half surge we all are hoping for/expect can do to make this team meaningful once fall starts to approach.