PECOTA has Pudge at a WARP value of 1.3. That number is based on his weighted mean line of .264/.301/.365, with 4 HR, 30 RBI, and 5 SB in 289 plate appearances. His defense is right at league average. Things can get interesting if he can hit his 75th percentile projection: 313 PA's, .273/.313/.373, 5 HR 35 RBI and 6 SB. That season would up his WARP yield to 1.8...seemingly not that much, but getting an extra half win from a 36 year old player is a nice return on an investment.
Other projections:
Bill James: .283/.320/.745, 11 HR/52 RBI/53 R in 445 AB
Oliver: .290/.323/.768, 11 HR in 401 AB
ZIPS: .279/.309/.714, 9 HR/49 RBI/52 R in 459 AB
Chone's projection is more along the line of BPro's, and Marcel's are slightly more optimistic. His PECOTA collapse rate/improve rate(s) are so close (39%/30%) that improvement is unlikely in their estimation. PECOTA may be too low on Pudge, and Oliver may be too high and somewhere in between seems like a nice landing place for our new catcher. If that indeed happens, Pudge may be worth 2 wins over a replacement player (such as, Humberto Quintero) will be the result, a good deal for someone being paid between $1.5 and $3 million.
