clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2009 Astros Starting Pitchers: TCB Over/Under Predictions

With Spring Training a week and a half away, and as the Super Bowl is but a memory, it's time for us to get serious about our Astros. The weakest link on this team is probably going to be our starting pitching, which in a way (a sick, twisted way) makes this group the most interesting.

AstroAndy suggested that TCB writers and readers give our two cents about this group, in the form of a massive over/under prediction contest. Doing so, we can keep track of it all throughout the season.

We'll include the top nine candidates that the Astros have, and include their Bill James projections for W-L, ERA, and IP. For pitchers without a James projection, CHONE will be used. If no CHONE projection is available, Marcel will fill in. Simple enough. Comment with your opinion- either over/under that number. If you're truly adventurous, tell us your personal projection for each pitcher. If enough of ya'll do this, I will take the data and compile a chart that will be posted on the the blog.

Without further adieu, here are your 2009 starting pitching candidates' projected statistics:

Roy Oswalt 215 16-11 3.50
Wandy Rodriguez 136 7-8 4.45
Brian Moehler 160 7-11 4.93
Brandon Backe 130 5-9 5.49
Mike Hampton 132 7-8 4.61
Felipe Paulino (CHONE) 83 4-5 4.99
Fernando Nieve (CHONE) 56 3-3 4.18
Alberto Arias (CHONE) 60 3-3 4.20
Russ Ortiz (Marcel) 49 2-3 5.05

For what it's worth: Nieve, Arias and Ortiz do not have a projected number of Games Started. The first six players do, however. Here are their projected games started in 2009:

Games Started (2009)
Roy Oswalt 33
Wandy Rodriguez 25
Brian Moehler 29
Brandon Backe 24
Mike Hampton 22
Felipe Paulino (CHONE) 18

Bill James' Games Started projections for the Astros leave 29 open starts for other players to fill. This isn't the most scientific way to do things, but adding in Paulino's 18 projected games started ,there are 11 openings for the rest of the pitchers to grab.

There ya have it. Let's Over/Under.