This article by Dave Cameron at fangraphs brought this question to mind. Cameron points out that, by far, the most stolen bases occur in the lead off hitter spot. He notes that the traditional pitcher response to a base running thief on 1st base is to throw fastballs. His point is that managers play into the hands of this strategy by putting the typical low-power, speedy contact hitter in the 2 slot, because these guys are the players that pitchers want to throw FBs too, anyway, since these players expose them to the least potential damage if they hit it. The No. 2 slot has the lowest ISO of any non-pitcher slot, according to Cameron.
Cameron's solution is to put a fastball hitting power hitter in the No. 2 slot, and perhaps select the power hitter who often chases off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. Thus, his logic goes, the pitcher faces a conundrum: throw off-speed pitches in order to reduce the HR threat but give up the stolen base, or hold the runner with fastballs but give the No. 2 hitter the pitches he wants.
In my mind, this strategy would call for putting Hunter Pence in the No. 2 slot in the order. We know that Matsui will bat lead off, at least unless Bourn shows he can get his OBP up to a level appropriate for leading off. Pence's main hitting weakness is chasing the slider, or other breaking pitch, on the outside corner, a problem exploited heavily by pitchers in his second ML year. Pence hammers fastballs, which pitchers soon discovered. As a result, Pence had one of the lowest percentages of fastballs seen last year (49.8%) and one of the highest percentage of sliders seen (28.3%). This was a sharp change from his rookie year when he feasted on a few more fastballs and saw substantially less sliders.
However, the numbers may not support this idea. Pence's career OPS from the 2 hole is ..777, lower than his overall OPS of .833. His highest career OPS is in the 6 slot (.930). This could be a sample size issue, since Pence only has about 250 at bats in the 2 slot over his career. Or perhaps it is an indication of an incorrect assumption about pitchers throwing him fastballs in the 2 slot.
I would probably try Pence in the No. 2 slot behind Matsui. I think Tejada would be the second best choice, except for the fact that he hits into too many DPs.