On our way to wrapping up the community aspect of the projection project, we're going to take a look at the starting pitchers. I arrived at the current numbers by using IP forecasts from Bill James, Marcels, and CHONE averaged, and ERA by weighting the last three years of tRA* and adjusting it back to ERA by a mulitplier of .96. Some of the numbers I fudged for my own realistic guess, but I'm probably off in some assumptions somewhere. What, if anything, about these numbers doesn't seem right to you:
- Roy Oswalt: 210 IP, ERA 3.79
- Wandy Rodriguez: 150 IP, ERA 4.16
- Mike Hampton: 115 IP, ERA 4.41
- Brian Moehler: 140 IP, ERA 4.66
- Brandon Backe: 140 IP ERA 4.82
- Alberto Arias: 100 IP, ERA 4.29
- Clay Hensley: 85 IP, ERA 4.81