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Astros Community Projection Project: The Starting Pitchers

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On our way to wrapping up the community aspect of the projection project, we're going to take a look at the starting pitchers.  I arrived at the current numbers by using IP forecasts from Bill James, Marcels, and CHONE averaged, and ERA by weighting the last three years of tRA* and adjusting it back to ERA by a mulitplier of .96.  Some of the numbers I fudged for my own realistic guess, but I'm probably off in some assumptions somewhere. What, if anything, about these numbers doesn't seem right to you:

  • Roy Oswalt: 210 IP, ERA 3.79
  • Wandy Rodriguez: 150 IP, ERA 4.16
  • Mike Hampton: 115 IP, ERA 4.41
  • Brian Moehler: 140 IP, ERA 4.66
  • Brandon Backe: 140 IP ERA 4.82
  • Alberto Arias: 100 IP, ERA 4.29
  • Clay Hensley: 85 IP, ERA 4.81