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The Astros have a 53% chance of winning 83 games in 2009

I was inspired to get fancy by BtB and plugged the Astros WAR Projection Project into a binomial distribution function to determine what the probability was that the Astros actually hit the mark our input projected.  The actual probability was .531, so I understated the probability, slightly, in the title.

I know this isn't entirely accurate, but I thought it would be fun none the less.